ETH dumped -25% in 25 minutes after CME open on February 3, 2025 when the market started getting scared about tariffs [This tweet is unrelated to the current market, I'm just studying some crypto history]

One important aspect of stock trading is not to get too complacent about the fact that they have smaller drawdowns than altcoins and feel 'safer' Meaning, you can theoretically "average down" into a dip, but you have to: 1/ be very surgical about where you add (only on new local lows) 2/ de-risk on bounces 3/ know how many chips you have left so that you still have some if we reach an extreme drawdown (which would be 'deep value' to buy in the context of the LTF move) It's also extremely easy to be buying a local top while feeling comfortable, without realizing you are actually at a very risky level for bulls As usual, the main risk management lesson is all about one word: sizing. Oversizing a trade is the main thing you should always try to avoid

Let's eyeball the charts of the main recent winners in the crypto market: Still "okay": HYPE ZEC VVV GRASS PEPE ENA Weak: LIT NEAR ARB ZRO UNI USELESS PUMP Obviously one strong BTC move and this can change quickly one way or another. Overall, many alts are definitely tired, so the long I like the most is BTC (and short some alts).

I mean, I'm pretty sure that with equivalent teams building them, an AI business is likely to be spitting cash while L2s are a notoriously bad business model Unsuccessful crypto teams should def try to pivot unless they have very strong conviction on what they're building

The first rule of scam coins is that *anything* can happen Their return distributions have MUCH fatter tails than those of organic coins This matters because an unlevered spot long can 'only' lose 100%, while the upside has no hard ceiling With similarly higher odds of extreme moves in either direction, the upside outcomes can add far more to expected returns than the downside outcomes subtract It sounds silly but I believe that's what makes the EV positive and why you should be skewed long on scam coins (we have a history of enough upside silliness to justify being exposed)

The market has been successful in keeping Saylor under its thumb. Keep STRC strictly below $100, and he’s forced to use his cash reserves to bid STRC without being able to buy more BTC or generating ‘BTC yield’. On top of that, people can now buy $ASST which has the exact same business model as MSTR but without having the size constraints of Strategy.

Some coins are perma-shorts $XRP $XLM $HBAR $SUI $TRUMP Whenever they get a meaningful squeeze, you can bonk them The dino coins had an insane run in late 2024, and then pumped strongly again during the next risk-on season in mid 2025, which is quite rare, and implies that the digestion/under-performance phase will be very long. There's no reason for XRP to trade above $1, and time will correct this exuberance. SUI also reached an unbelievably high FDV in 2025 ($56bn!), but everyone knows it's not the future of France and it's just the shiny alt L1 from the last cycle, which still trades at a very large valuation. There's too much muscle memory in the market so SUI can easily get squeezed once the altcoins are pumping, but any of these moves is a good opportunity to get short on it. TRUMP is now a worthless memecoin that is programmed to fade into irrelevance. Here, the only thing that matters is to avoid being a victim of the short squeezes such as the one we had in August (impressive +160% pump). But TRUMP will trade below $1 at some point, and once again, shorting the squeezes is a gift.