This person is challenged, so let’s help him understand, so others avoid the same pitfall As we do that, you’ll see how this graph is much worse than it looks at first sight in 2 ways When we talk about crime and immigration, the underlying question is: Who should we let in? A person that commits 20x more crime than the average native is very bad. Don’t get these people in. Now, if you only have 10 of them, are they yet a national threat? No, they’re not. Can they become one? Surely, if you only let in people like them. So by talking about the per capita, you’re raising the alarm. Another way to say the same thing: if a woman finds herself alone at night in the subway, and she can choose between one wagon with a native and one with an afghan asylum seeker, which one should she choose? By far, she will be safer with the native. Does it mean the majority of rapes are committed by Afghans? No! There are too few. Thankfully! If there were as many as natives, the rape rate would be 10-20x higher. So yes, you’re more likely to be raped by a native because there are many more. Now the types of rapes. Broadly there are 2: from ppl you know, and from ppl you don’t know. I’d argue the rapes from ppl you don’t know are much scarier, because you have zero agency on them, because there are few choices you can make differently to avoid them, short of curtailing your daily life. Meanwhile, you have some agency with partners: don’t start relationships with bad people, leave them, don’t contact them, call for help… I assume the natives tend to commit more of this type of crime, whereas immigrants commit more rapes to strangers. Therefore not only are these immigrants more likely to commit rape, they’re also more likely to commit the worst type of rape—to strangers. And when we have public debates on these things, public behavior is much more relevant than private behavior, so this type of rape is much more relevant to public debate than the more private one (even if both are relevant). So yes, this graph is bad because it’s logarithmic and undersells the problem, but also because this blends both stranger and acquainted rape. If you only look at stranger rape, immigrants would likely be even worse. And yet, also, as a woman you’re more likely to be raped by somebody who knows you, so beware

Lots of people discuss immigration & crime in Europe, so I compiled what I think is ALL the data on the topic, which is hard because many countries hide it. Do they commit more crime? Is it because of age? Sex? Education? Poverty? Culture? 1. Sexual offenses & violent crime: