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Scott Bessent makes it clear the Trump Administration will not take model liability off the hands of the AI labs:
Jefferies: Acquiring agentic companies like a Harvey, or Sierra will require issuing equity.
"You saw that with Cursor waiting for SpaceX to go public."
Jefferies: There's a lot of zombie software companies from 2018-2022 which are not transacting
Neil Movva: 90% of AI workloads could move to background agents
Apple TV prices are rising from $12.99/month to $14.99/month.
On an annual basis, it's increasing from $99/year to $119/year.
PIMCO deep dive: The Treasury's doubling of long-end bond buybacks can help liquidity, but can't fix the fundamentals pushing long yields higher.
PIMCO sees room to compress the 70bp spread between 30-year Treasuries and swaps, but says fiscal debt, inflation uncertainty, and AI-related issuance are the real drivers of higher yields.
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Neil Movva thinks the cost of intelligence is going to dramatically decrease.
The cost could go from millions to tens of dollars:
A Stripe and Advent consortium has reportedly abandoned its ~$50B pursuit of PayPal $PYPL
Bloomberg: Companies still can't put a dollar figure on the AI payoff three years into the buildout.
Only 1 of the 60 largest US financial firms has mentioned realized AI returns on earnings calls in 3 years, and it did so twice for ~$19M combined.
Meanwhile, AI prices are collapsing while chip and memory costs get repriced upward.
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Kevin Durant's biggest wins as a Venture Capitalist:
Hugging Face ($250k check to $60mm)
Whoop ($125mm valuation to $10.1B valuation)
Coinbase (invested at $1.6B valuation in 2017)
Robinhood (invested at $1.2B valuation in 2017)
Underdog Fantasy (invested in $10mm funding round, sold for $1.1B)
Rubrik ($1.3B valuation in 2017, now valued at $20B)
Mercury (Participated in 2019 Series A at $100mm. Now valued at $5.2B.)
Postmates (invested $1mm, received $15mm after an Uber buyout)
Overtime (invested at $31mm valuation)
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Anthropic is planning to unveil its IPO prospectus after Labor Day - The Information
Morgan Stanley says AI could turn 30-year mortgages into "a floating-rate instrument that only floats down."
Only ~1/3 of eligible homeowners refinance today, but the bank expects AI to push that toward 60%, which would squeeze returns in the $9T mortgage bond market.
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Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack: ‘now is the time to act’ on raising rates
Nvidia has agreed to buy Hugging Face for $12.9 Billion - The Information
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei addressed the SaaSpocalypse head on with Salesforce’s Marc Benioff
“We’re not interested in destroying anyone.”
Jeff Currie: The Strait of Hormuz is just one of many choke points being squeezed right now
Software stocks have been crushing chips over the past 2 months:
Revolution Medicines won US approval for a breakthrough pancreatic cancer pill - BBG
The drug is priced above $475k/year
Apollo President Jim Zelter: America's next industrial buildout won't fit the old capital playbook.
Investment-grade issuance now rivals US Treasury net issuance as companies raise trillions for AI, energy, and factories, and Zelter argues public bonds, banks, insurance, and private credit are now complements rather than substitutes.
Full piece:
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KKR deep dive: US real estate's $5.1T middle market is underserved by traditional institutional capital.
Nearly 5,800 middle-market sponsors control 85% of the institutionally sponsored market and manage nearly 300,000 properties across the US.
Only 31% of the institutionally sponsored market sits in closed-end fund structures. The other 69% is held in joint ventures, syndications, and deal-by-deal relationships that require bespoke capital solutions.
full piece:
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