Yardeni Research
@yardeni
Unlock your financial potential. Gain a competitive edge with clear analysis and expert commentary on the economic indicators that drive the market.
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Scary market surprises might actually be opportunities in disguise. Four potential frights on the horizon could create attractive entry points for investors who stay focused on fundamentals.
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The Fed held rates steady while GDP surged 3.4%, core inflation ran at 3%, and jobless claims hit their lowest level since 1969.
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AI companies are raising hundreds of billions while Alphabet's stock just dropped 10% on a revenue miss. The same buildout fueling both outcomes.
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Industrial stocks have fallen from second-best to sixth place this year while the sector's forward earnings just hit a record high.
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AI data centers need $8.5 trillion in revenue by 2030 to justify their investments. Gartner projects they'll generate $3.6 trillion. The buildout continues anyway.
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Everyone's worried about an AI bubble, but the S&P 500's forward P/E has fallen from 22.2 to 18.6 this year. Stocks are getting cheaper while AI fears intensify.
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France's 10-year bond yield just overtook the US for the first time, while Italy now borrows cheaper than France.
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Markets face a packed week: FOMC decision Wednesday, Q3 GDP and inflation data Thursday, plus earnings from tech giants. Fed Chair Warsh's guidance will be crucial.
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S&P 500 forward earnings just hit a record high while the index trades 13.5% cheaper than it did at the start of the year.
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The neutral rate keeps moving, inflation pressures persist beyond the Fed's control, and finding the right policy stance remains elusive. A deep dive into what's really driving rate decisions.
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Meta just reported negative free cash flow and warned that capital for AI investments is getting scarce. The biggest tech companies are now racing each other for financing.
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Semiconductor earnings are up 176% year-over-year, yet the industry's P/E has collapsed to just 14.2. The market doesn't believe its own profit forecasts.
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Fed Chair Warsh says he'd be hard pressed to call financial conditions restrictive. Yet markets are pricing in an October pause with 84% certainty.
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Stock prices are up 12% this year, but the math is wild: earnings soared 31% while valuations collapsed 14%. Something has to give.
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Bond vigilantes are doing something useful for a change: regulating capital flows into AI. That's actually a good thing for the market.
Tech crashed 6.4% while Consumer Staples rallied 5.0%—and Staples now trades at a higher multiple than Technology for the first time in years.
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Last week's inflation data ran hot, with PPI hitting its highest since 2022. This week brings a light data calendar as earnings season takes center stage, led by Tesla and Meta.
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Foreign stocks are crushing on earnings—up 36% forward earnings this year—yet their valuations have dropped 19% while prices barely budged. The discount to US stocks just hit 57%.
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Bond Vigilantes are doing what regulators won't: widening credit spreads on sketchy AI borrowers while Treasury yields fall. The market is self-correcting without breaking.
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Treasury yields plunged despite two hotter-than-expected inflation reports. Bond traders are suddenly pricing in slower growth, not a hawkish Fed.
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