Yuan ./(@yuangao ):An intense conversation by @GavinSBaker x @patrick_oshag on the AI infra war vs. model evolution. I am particularly fascinated by this dynamic: Gavin argues Edge AI is the "bear case" for the massive data center buildout. But I view it as the ultimate bull case for humanity. We are heading toward a hybrid future: -Local, trimmed, capable models handle daily tasks on-device (for free) -Cloud "God models" handle complex reasoning (paid) This is exactly how AI proliferates

2025.12.20 06:23

An intense conversation by @GavinSBaker x @patrick_oshag on the AI infra war vs. model evolution. I am particularly fascinated by this dynamic: Gavin argues Edge AI is the "bear case" for the massive data center buildout. But I view it as the ultimate bull case for humanity. We are heading toward a hybrid future: -Local, trimmed, capable models handle daily tasks on-device (for free) -Cloud "God models" handle complex reasoning (paid) This is exactly how AI proliferates

Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

2025.12.09 13:00

This is my fifth conversation with @GavinSBaker. Gavin understands semiconductors and AI as well as anyone I know and has a gift for making sense of the industry's complexity and nuance. We discuss: - Nvidia vs Google (GPUs + TPUs) - Scaling laws and reasoning models - The economics of AI compute - Why Blackwell's delay mattered - The bear case on the AI capex buildout - Data centers in space - The mistake SaaS companies are making Few people love investing more than Gavin. His closing answer about why he loves it turned into a full reflection on his investing origin story, which I had never heard before. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 5:03 The Blackwell Transition 23:15 The Prisoner's Dilemma 27:12 The Bear Case: Edge AI 37:19 Meta, Open Source, and Model Depreciation 43:08 Geopolitics and Rare Earths 50:42 Data Centers in Space 56:06 Power Constraints as a Governor 1:11:31 The SaaS Mistake 1:16:17 Nuclear and Quantum 1:22:25 Gavin’s Investing Origins