$MSTR
Danâs point is easy to overlook, and I think thereâs another layer to the mNAV conversation that gets missed.
Strategy is a very different vehicle today than it was in 2024.
The company is larger. The capital structure is more complex. Preferreds now absorb some of the structured and yield demand. There are more alternatives for investors seeking Bitcoin exposure.
At this size, sustaining a 3x+ mNAV is a very different proposition.
But thereâs one thing you canât model on a spreadsheet:
Human sentiment.
mNAV is a reflection of sentiment. It is not the measuring stick most investors are using to decide whether they want to buy $MSTR.
If Bitcoin starts ripping, people will want amplified Bitcoin exposure.
They arenât running CEBE frameworks.
Most of them wonât even know what mNAV stands for.
Theyâll see a stock that has already gone up significantly and think:
I want some of that.
We see this behavior across markets all the time. Companies trade at multiples of earnings that look completely irrational on paper because people arenât buying the spreadsheet.
Theyâre buying the story, the momentum, and the possibility of what comes next.
I donât think that makes Danâs argument wrong.
I just donât think 2x is a hard ceiling that price canât cross.
Same as anything volatile: buy when itâs bleeding. When it gets exuberant, either sell or sit on your hands.
Donât confuse âthis multiple shouldnât lastâ with âthis multiple canât print.â
The multiple is a consequence of the demand for the asset, the company, and the opportunity.
In a genuine Bitcoin mania, the eventual high print will be determined by human emotions, not a formula.
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