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Zaid 🟧
@zaidlikesmstr
“volatility is vitality” Truth ≠ advice • Views my own $BTC = Digital capital | $MSTR = Digital refinery | $STRC = Digital excellence
375 Following    3.2K Followers
$MSTR Dan’s point is easy to overlook, and I think there’s another layer to the mNAV conversation that gets missed. Strategy is a very different vehicle today than it was in 2024. The company is larger. The capital structure is more complex. Preferreds now absorb some of the structured and yield demand. There are more alternatives for investors seeking Bitcoin exposure. At this size, sustaining a 3x+ mNAV is a very different proposition. But there’s one thing you can’t model on a spreadsheet: Human sentiment. mNAV is a reflection of sentiment. It is not the measuring stick most investors are using to decide whether they want to buy $MSTR. If Bitcoin starts ripping, people will want amplified Bitcoin exposure. They aren’t running CEBE frameworks. Most of them won’t even know what mNAV stands for. They’ll see a stock that has already gone up significantly and think: I want some of that. We see this behavior across markets all the time. Companies trade at multiples of earnings that look completely irrational on paper because people aren’t buying the spreadsheet. They’re buying the story, the momentum, and the possibility of what comes next. I don’t think that makes Dan’s argument wrong. I just don’t think 2x is a hard ceiling that price can’t cross. Same as anything volatile: buy when it’s bleeding. When it gets exuberant, either sell or sit on your hands. Don’t confuse “this multiple shouldn’t last” with “this multiple can’t print.” The multiple is a consequence of the demand for the asset, the company, and the opportunity. In a genuine Bitcoin mania, the eventual high print will be determined by human emotions, not a formula. $BTC $MSTR $STRC
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