Breaking down TSMC's glass core substrate slide On June 11, at JPCA Show 2026 in Japan, TSMC gave a roughly 40-slide presentation titled "Advanced Packaging Technology Essential to the Evolution of AI" (AIの進化に不可欠な先端パッケージング技術). One slide from the deck, titled "Glass Substrate Development for CoWoS," has since leaked online and widespread attention. Here's a closer read of that slide (see attached image). I'll skip the technical background that is already widely available. One thing to flag: the "COP" on the slide does not stand for Chip-on-Package. It means Coplanarity. ▌ Key conclusions: 1. TSMC has officially announced a partnership with Ibiden and Innolux to develop a glass core substrate. The structure is a three-layer design, a glass core sandwiched between two ABF build-up layers. This is the "oS" in CoPoS. 2. The market underestimates how important the glass core substrate is. It's a must-have capability for TSMC. In other words, within CoPoS the "oS" matters more than the "CoP", which is also why, when it was tested, it was paired with the existing CoW rather than with CoP. 3. The glass core substrate costs several times more per unit than existing ABF substrates. The glass processed by Innolux is very expensive per unit and is the single most critical material. Besides Nvidia, two US-based customers have also expressed strong interest. ▌ Industry checks tied to this slide: 1. The glass core substrate shown on the slide is cut from a full-size 250×250mm one. The ABF build-up layers mainly use Ajinomoto's GL107, mixed with ABF-GCP, and were tested at 24–28 layers, which is the mainstream ABF spec for AI chips in 2027–2028. 2. The CoW used in TSMC's experiment is a test vehicle. It is sufficient to validate the most challenging mechanical-structure issues that arise when working with composite materials. Good results mean TSMC, Ibiden, and Innolux have together broken through the critical technical bottleneck. 3. Ibiden currently handles cutting the 250×250mm glass core substrate. When the 510×515mm format is used for pre-mass-production simulation in 2H27, if Ibiden still wants to reduce production complexity to protect its ultra-high gross margins, it may hand the cutting over to Innolux, which is more familiar with the properties of glass. ▌ The leaked slide shows the validation results of pairing CoW with the "oS" in CoPoS, i.e., the glass core substrate (labeled "glass-SBT" on the slide). This addresses the "Substrate mechanical and electrical Dilemma" raised on the previous slide, and it strongly underscores how important the "oS" is within CoPoS. 1. Within CoPoS, what CoP solves is production efficiency / cutting economics, which ties to cost and price. What the oS solves is warpage and durability, which determines whether the chip can be made at all, and whether it can work. 2. CoP and oS complement each other well when integrated, but looking out over the next few years their technical roles still differ. CoP is a very-nice-to-have optimization, and going without it simply means a more expensive chip. But the oS is a must-have. Without it, even being able to make a usable chip is in doubt. 3. Comparing their roles isn't about elevating oS at the expense of CoP. It comes down to the practical question of which technical piece customers are willing to pay for. Details below. ▌ The real gold here is the power integrity (PI) improvement shown on the slide. This matters a great deal to customers, and it means that once glass core substrate production stabilizes, TSMC's profitability and competitive edge should rise in tandem. 1. How it works: the glass core substrate is thin → the vertical conduction path through TGV (through-glass vias) is short → conduction-path resistance (R) and loop inductance (L) both drop → PI improves. 2. Why it matters to customers: better PI → more stable power delivery → frees up power headroom → room to integrate more transistors, or to push clock speeds higher → more AI compute. 3. For customers, production efficiency is TSMC's basic responsibility, so they won't pay extra for it. But gains in AI compute translate directly into the customer's own competitiveness and profit, so customers are willing to pay for that. This is why Nvidia is so positive on the glass core substrate. 4. For TSMC, the glass core substrate raises yield and lowers cost while also boosting both the compute and the selling price of AI chips. It's both a cost-cutting tool and a pricing lever, a plus for profitability and competitiveness alike. 5. Substrate cost currently accounts for a low single-digit percentage of an AI chip's BOM, while losses from packaging yield run roughly 5–10× the substrate cost. So even if the glass core substrate ends up costing several times more than today's, its share of the BOM stays low, and it can cut the losses from packaging yield. The high unit price is therefore not expected to dampen customers' willingness to adopt it. ▌ In the Q&A after the presentation, an audience member asked about TGV details for the glass core substrate. TSMC declined to answer on the spot, because TGV is the key technology behind the glass core substrate, and the core know-how currently sits with TSMC and Innolux. By contrast, when another attendee asked about integrating IVR, eDTC, and LSI, TSMC answered at length. ▌ According to industry checks, if all goes well, TSMC is aiming to start mass production of the glass core substrate in 4Q28–1Q29, to match the cadence of Nvidia's AI chip iterations. As a side note: the Ibiden earnings presentation slide that many people have been circulating lists the glass core substrate timeline as CY30. My read is this: Ibiden, which has always been conservative and cautious in public, has now formally put the glass core substrate on its roadmap, which further confirms the long-term trend for this technology. That said, some other details on Ibiden's slide don't fully line up with what's known in the market. For example, its reticle timeline is off from TSMC's public claims by about a generation, and the Rubin Ultra substrate size is clearly larger than the 90×90 it marked for CY26–27. It's a reminder to always cross-check across multiple sources when forecasting the future.

来日したNVIDIA創業者兼CEOのジェンスン・フアン氏が、東京で開催された「Build-a-Claw」イベントに予告なしで立ち寄った（https://blogs[.]nvidia[.]com/blog/japan-ecosystem-2026/）。会場では日本の開発者たちが、オープンモデル（誰でも無料で使える公開済みのAIモデル）とNVIDIAのプラットフォームでものを掴むロボット（クロー）を開発中で、フアン氏は抽選会の当選者に、個人でも使えるAIスーパーコンピュータ「NVIDIA DGX Spark」2台にサインをして贈った。 今回の来日でNVIDIAが打ち出した最大級の発表が、日本政府主導の「フィジカルAI（現実世界で動くロボットや工場設備を制御するAI）イニシアチブ」だ。経済産業大臣とともに発足式に参加したフアン氏は、製造業のノウハウと産業データ、世界的な技術リーダーを結集し、AIエージェントやデジタルツイン（現実の設備や環境をそっくりそのままコンピュータ上に再現したモデル）、ロボティクス向けのオープンなマルチモーダル基盤モデルを開発する構想を明らかにした。 理化学研究所ではNVIDIAのBlackwell GPU（NVIDIA最新世代のAI向け演算チップ）を使ったスーパーコンピュータが2台稼働を始めた。「AI for Science」向けのRIKYUはBlackwell GPUを1,600基搭載し、量子コンピュータとGPUを融合させた「ROQUO」はBlackwell GPUを540基搭載して、イオントラップ方式（電荷を帯びた原子をレーザーで捕まえて量子ビットとして使う方式）の量子コンピュータ「Reimei」ともつながっている。三菱ケミカルやみずほ銀行、慶應義塾大学などが参加した分子スペクトル解析（分子の電子構造や性質を調べる手法）のワークフローでは、量子コンピュータとGPUの組み合わせでCPUのみの場合と比べて13.4倍の高速化を達成。半導体製造用のEUVフォトレジスト（極端紫外線露光に使う感光材料）評価などへの応用も視野に入るという。 金融分野ではみずほが、NVIDIA DGX B200を皮切りに、日本の金融業界で最大級とみられるオンプレミス型（自社の設備内でシステムを運用する方式）のAI工場（GPUを集積してAIモデルを学習・運用する拠点）の構築を計画している。トヨタとも連携を拡大し、先進運転支援（L2++）向けAIやコード生成AI、工場のデジタルツインまで取り組みは多岐にわたる。 チップを売るだけでなく、金融・量子計算・製造・自動車と各業界のインフラそのものに入り込む。NVIDIAの日本戦略は、単なる半導体企業からプラットフォーム企業への転換をますます鮮明にしているように見える。

エージェントのLLMコール、本当に全部フロンティアモデルが必要ですか？NVIDIAのSwitchyardで実測してみたら、驚きの結果が出ました。 タイトル: Switchyard Agent Routing Benchmark URL: TL;DR 145件のマルチステップエージェントタスク（1タスク平均6.3コール）を検証。93%のLLMコールは小型モデルで処理でき、74%のコスト削減を達成。精度の低下はわずか6ポイントでした。 ポイント 🎯 フロンティアモデルは7%のコールのみ 全LLMコールのうち、Claude Opus 4.8が必要だったのはたった7%。残り93%はNemotron 3.5 Lightningで処理可能でした。 💰 コストは74%削減 タスクあたりコストが$0.092（Opus単体）→ $0.026（ルーティング）→ $0.006（Lightning単体）に。精度80%を確保しながら大幅な削減を実現。 📊 コスト内訳の意外な事実 フロンティアモデルはコール件数わずか7%なのに、総支出の68.4%を占有。加えてジャッジモデル自体のコストが21.2%を消費する点に注意が必要です。 🔢 ルーティングが割に合うかの公式 「最小オフロード率 = ジャッジコスト ÷ (高額モデルコスト - 安価モデルコスト)」で判断できます。モデル間の価格差が小さいと導入メリットが薄れます。 ⚡ 2つのデプロイ方式 NVIDIAのSwitchyardをプロキシサーバーとして独立起動するか、LangChainのDeep Agentsミドルウェアとして組み込むかを選択できます。 タスクが比較的簡単だった（難しいタスクならルーティング効果はさらに大きい可能性あり）という留意点はあるものの、1タスク複数コールのエージェントには非常に実践的な知見です。 #AIエージェント# #LLMコスト#