rick awsb ($people, $people)
@rickawsb
瞎读书,乱解释,买啥亏啥,宏观小学生,政经评论外卖员,正在ai中慢慢迷失自我,crypto holder, defi farmer, not financial advice 非投资建议
11.8K Following    125.3K Followers
今天fomo哪个币? 比特币以太坊 fud哪个币? 所有的法币
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过去一天ETH ETF 的净流入量超过14万ETH,价值超5亿美元,第一阶段远没结束。
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维护个人主权,其核心指标已非金钱、时间,而是注意力。这是一个基于神经生物学的基本事实。 为了应对生存威胁,上亿年的进化将注意力系统设计成一个高能耗的“侦测-捕获”模块,一旦过度调用,神经元便会启动自我保护机制,强制降低放电频率,表现为注意力骤降。这决定了其极度的稀缺性。 理解了这一点,你就能看懂现代商业文明的底层架构:从估值万亿的科技巨头,到金融市场的各种“注意力收割”玩法,本质都是围绕这个有限资源的开采和套利。 下一次当你的注意力被某件事吸引时,问问自己,它是否值得你赔上你最有限的资源。
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提供一个不同视角:投资和投机在金融市场里始终会并存且相互转化。短期靠炒作投机,长期靠价值回归;流动性充裕时看价值评估,流动性紧缺时看注意力炒作。 这不仅是由项目好坏和资金多少决定,更是由人性的贪婪和恐惧本性决定,而后者亘古未变。
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有观点认为,包括天才法案在内的美国一系列的新法案,是将加密货币纳入了监管,从此加密货币只能戴着监管的镣铐跳舞 我完全不这么认为 这一系列的新法案只能说明是传统金融在发现无法扼杀加密之后的无奈的妥协 这是5千5百万美国持币的选民代表全球币圈取得的阶段性的胜利 接下来会发生的事情是,加密行业继续以抗监管的技术底层,不断蚕食传统金融,直至完全吞噬 这是以数学基本原理为保障的人性对过时系统的必然的颠覆式创新!
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币圈之前几个周期让大家感觉赚钱容易,其中一个最重要的原因是,资产相对稀缺和资金相对充裕,简单来说就是钱多项目少。 随着美股上链,上面的逻辑将不再成立。很多美股的市值,都不比meme高。 再以老的经验来做新的周期的投资,会吃大亏。 币圈投资终需回归投资的本质,回归价值
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今天那谁的财报 他敢跌我就敢多 无论财报怎么样
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没什么欲望,手机是iphone 10,电脑是m1乞丐版卡卡的,2w的电瓶车,现在唯一能让我兴奋的就是eth变多
没什么欲望,手机是几年前的,电脑也3年多了卡卡的,10w的低配汽车,现在唯一能让我兴奋的就是usdt变多
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尽管我并不完全同意富大的所有观点,但是我誓死捍卫富大发项目的权力 尤其是很实在的告诉你就是互掏腰包的项目 每一个web3的项目,都可能是压垮法币骆驼的最后一根稻草 非投资建议,dyor
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存量博弈时代,让我们公平的互相掏兜 这里不说假话。https://t.co/QfAt8kR6Pq 即将上线,需要一批最早期的套利者,做市商,聪明人,或者说粉丝。 如果有机会一起赚钱做大做强,我们愿意出让更多的收益。感谢各位老板。 预测市场是存量博弈时代最好的选择。 这里有最公平的掏兜方式,用户留存高,隐含杠杆,也更有乐趣,不会给做市商带来库存风险,也不会像期权市场一样学习曲线陡峭无比,老少皆宜,是赌客们的茶馆,是聪明人的对冲工具。 不同的市场有不同的偏向。预测市场是天然较为公平的,赔率是博弈出来的,预言机是公开事件无法干预。 相比之下,其他场子的机会并没有那么美好。 比如,NFT 是库存风险,表面上价值连城,实际上库存压力巨大,熬不住就被割了。 永续合约市场,高倍杠杆+资产自身风险,导致只能顺势撸一波,很难hold,单纯hold 现货说实话,除非老OG 要不然赚不到钱 现货市场,开过交易所的都知道,离开了做市商你手里的token一毛价值都没有,软性rug 超过9成8 。 https://t.co/QfAt8kR6Pq 会在明日正式宣布上线,同时,我们也希望更多的朋友来参与未来的做市商计划,共同发射更多概率事件。 毕竟,新兴市场才能赚到真的钱。
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911老师开始悟道了👍
这不是一句噱头,这是稳定币法案通过后必然的结果! 如果你有100个亿USDT你会走波场还是走以太链? 不言而喻了吧!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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王峰老师说了,想让比特币生态涨,以太先得涨 大饼生态的maxi们,为了ordi的前途,赶紧买以太吧😂
更新/什么时候轮到比特币网络生态? 写一段可以让Ordi突破前高的飞轮模型脚本(伪代码),只做定性推演,不做逻辑过程的具体量化和描述。 CFG = { "ORDI": { "symbol": "ORDI/USDT", "prev_high": 100.0 # Ordi前高 100 USDT } } def run_once(): eth_up = fetch_time_change(CFG["ETH"]["symbol"]) >= CFG["ETH"]["threshold"] defi_up = fetch_time_change(CFG["DEFI"]["symbol"]) >= CFG["DEFI"]["threshold"] nft_up = fetch_time_change(CFG["NFT"]["symbol"]) >= CFG["NFT"]["threshold"] inscr_up = inscription_activity() >= CFG["BTC_INSCRIPTION"]["inscription_burn_rate"] if eth_up and defi_up and nft_up and inscr_up: ordi_last = CFG["EX"].fetch_ticker(CFG["ORDI"]["symbol"])["last"] if ordi_last >= CFG["ORDI"]["prev_high"]: record_event(f"ORDI 现价 {ordi_last:.2f} USDT ≥ 100 USDT,突破前高,触发策略信号") # TODO: 下单 ORDI/USDT else: record_event(f"前置条件满足,ORDI 现价 {ordi_last:.2f} USDT 尚未突破 100 USDT") else: record_event("级联条件未完全触发") # 通俗地说,如果以太坊继续上涨,DeFi就会上涨、那么NFT市场回暖,必然会映射到比特币网络生态的NFT,那么铭文概念上涨、最终Ordi大幅上涨,超过前高。 # ORDI 价格达到 100 USDT 的条件就是上述五个“AND”全部成立;缺少其中任何一个,脚本都不会把这次上涨视为“满足策略触发条件”。 所以很难,但是希望。 希望总会有的。
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“美元稳定币带来的超级美元化,对于那些信用本已摇摇欲坠的政府,这将是致命一击。 本币的地位将被彻底动摇,因为民众和企业拥有了一个更完美、高效的替代品。” 什么是信用摇摇欲坠的政府?只需要看他们对金融的管制有多么的“严防死守”即可
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一条无法通向美好未来的梯子,有什么好上的? 币圈创造的机会,不是你行你上 而是,看不顺眼我就走 就像美元稳定币,给所有的普通人创造的机会一样 用脚投票的人多了,那条没人扶的梯子,自然就倒了
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昨晚半夜发出来的文章,后台私信和评论可有意思了。 其实我核心想表达的意思,和姜文新电影名字是一样的:你行你上。 最近姜文和鲁豫的采访中,我才知道,《你行!你上!》这名字,其实是六个字。 这就是「你以为的」和「实际上的」是两码事。 https://t.co/MQcj3a5wdD
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I don't know why @rickawsb wrote his article in Chinese but here's an unfiltered English version of it:🧵👇 The “GENIUS Act” and the New East India Company: How USD Stablecoins May Challenge Fiat Systems and Nation-States By: Rick AWSB “This is an extremely sophisticated asymmetric strategy. The U.S. is exploiting its adversaries’ weakest point fear of losing control to build its own moat. I. Ghosts of History: The Digital Return of the East India Company History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme. When Trump happily signed the GENIUS Act into law, what came to mind was a powerful image from history: the East India Companies of the 17th and 18th centuries commercial behemoths granted sovereign powers by their nations. These were not mere merchants, but corporate sovereigns, blending soldiers, diplomats, and colonizers. This Act, though appearing like a regulatory tweak, in truth marks the chartering of 21st-century “New East India Companies” stablecoin issuers gaining legitimacy through U.S. law. It's the beginning of a transformation in global power dynamics. 1a. Charters of a New Power Four centuries ago, the Dutch and British East India Companies (VOC and EIC) had the power to hire armies, mint currency, make treaties, and wage wars. Their state-backed monopolies defined the age of globalized sea trade. Today, the GENIUS Act essentially charters modern-day equivalents stablecoin giants like Circle (USDC), potentially Tether, and possibly tech giants like Apple, Google, Meta, and X. No longer rebellious crypto startups, they are now pillars of U.S. financial strategy. Their “routes” aren’t sea lanes, but 24/7 borderless financial rails the new arteries of global commerce. 1b. From Trade Routes to Financial Rails The old companies controlled physical routes with cannons and forts. These new “digital East India Companies” will control global value flows. If a U.S.-regulated stablecoin becomes the default for cross-border payments, DeFi, and real world asset trading, its issuer gains immense soft power defining compliance, freezing assets, and setting financial norms. 1c. Symbiosis and Conflict with Nation-States Like their historical predecessors, today’s stablecoin giants may evolve from tools of national strategy to independent power centers. Initially supporting U.S. hegemony and countering China’s e-CNY, they may eventually act in ways that contradict U.S. foreign policy, especially as their shareholder interests diverge from state agendas. The U.S. may face tension between control and dependence, possibly leading to future updates to the stablecoin legal framework. II. Global Monetary Tsunami: Dollarization, Deflation, and the End of Non-Dollar Central Banks The GENIUS Act is more than a charter. It’s the start of a monetary tsunami. The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 laid the groundwork. In the coming era, people in fragile economies may prefer stablecoins over failing national currencies, leading to hyper-dollarization and devastating local deflation. 2a. The Ghost of Bretton Woods Under Bretton Woods, the dollar was tied to gold and all other currencies to the dollar. This created a paradox (Triffin Dilemma): to support global trade, the U.S. had to run deficits which eventually undermined confidence. Nixon severed the gold link in 1971, ending the system. The dollar was reborn as a fiat instrument backed by U.S. strength and network effects. Now, U.S.-approved stablecoins elevate this to a new level bypassing national banks and reaching every smartphone directly. 2b. Hyper-Dollarization In places like Argentina and Turkey, people flee inflation by using dollars. Stablecoins remove friction: no banks, no capital controls, no physical risk. From Vietnam to Dubai, and Yiwu to Hong Kong, stablecoin usage is exploding. When inflation rises even slightly, capital doesn’t “flow out”. it vanishes instantly into the crypto ether. This threatens national currencies with obsolescence. 2c. Deflation and the Disappearance of State Power Once hyper-dollarization hits, governments lose: • Seigniorage (printing money) • Monetary policy tools The result: plummeting local currencies, collapsing tax bases, and failed governance. The GENIUS Act, combined with tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), may accelerate this collapse. 2d. White House vs. The Fed Domestically, a conflict may brew. If a Treasury-controlled stablecoin system emerges, it could sidestep the Fed, allowing the Executive Branch to exert monetary influence directly especially in election years or sanction enforcement. This may trigger a crisis in faith over Fed independence. III. The 21st Century Financial Battlefield: U.S. vs. China and the “Free Financial System” Externally, the Act is a strategic maneuver in the U.S.-China rivalry an ideological and infrastructural clash. 3a. A New Financial Iron Curtain Like the post-WWII Bretton Woods institutions (IMF, World Bank), this new “free finance” network powered by USD stablecoins is open, efficient, and diametrically opposed to China’s model of state-controlled finance. 3b. Permissionless vs. Permissioned China’s e-CNY is fully controlled, running on private ledgers, with full traceability. The U.S., in contrast, backs permissionless blockchains (Ethereum, Solana). Developers worldwide can build freely, with the U.S. acting as “credibility anchor” for the USD. This asymmetric strategy attracts innovators and users, while China’s surveillance model alienates them. It’s a contest China structurally can’t win. 3c. Bypassing SWIFT: A Dimensional Attack China and Russia attempt to sidestep SWIFT. But stablecoins render that effort obsolete no middlemen needed, no banks required. The U.S. isn't defending old infrastructure; it's creating a parallel game with new rules enforced by code, not treaties. 3d. Winning the Network Effects War The fusion of the dollar with crypto’s innovation creates an exponential network. Developers and users will flock to where liquidity and freedom are highest. Compared to the closed, RMB-centric e-CNY, the open USD ecosystem will dominate globally beyond China’s limited spheres of influence. IV. The De-Nationalization of Everything: RWA, DeFi, and the Collapse of State Control Stablecoins are the Trojan Horse. Once users hold stablecoins, the next step is tokenizing all assets, stocks, bonds, real estate, IP into on-chain digital instruments, detaching them from national jurisdiction. 4a. Stablecoins as the Trojan Horse Governments welcome regulated stablecoins as safe crypto. But in doing so, they unintentionally onboard users into crypto ecosystems one tap away from Bitcoin, ETH, DeFi, and privacy coins. Platforms like Coinbase become one-stop crypto supermarkets. USDC is the gateway drug leading users toward more freedom, higher yield, and greater autonomy. 4b. RWA: Assets Escape National Jurisdiction Imagine: • A Chinese team tokenizes app ownership • Traded on a permissionless DeFi protocol • An Argentinian buys it with stablecoins No bank, no SWIFT, no borders. This isn’t just new payment rails it’s a parallel universe outside the Westphalian order. When capital de-nationalizes, so do capitalists. 4c. The End of Traditional Finance Banks, brokers, and payment systems exist to mediate trust. Blockchain replaces this with public, tamper-proof records and smart contracts. Functions replaced: • Lending → DeFi protocols •Trading → AMMs • Payments → Stablecoin transfers • Securitization → RWA tokenization V. The Rise of Sovereign Individuals & The Twilight of the Nation-State When capital flows freely, assets ignore borders, and power shifts to networks and private giants, we enter a post-national age where the individual becomes sovereign. 5a. The Prophecy of The Sovereign Individual In 1997, Davidson and Rees-Mogg predicted that the Information Age would make power more mobile than ever. The state would be unable to tax knowledge and capital that exists online. Stablecoins, DeFi, and RWA make this real. A person can now: • Hold global assets •Move capital instantly • Stay outside any one jurisdiction States lose grip. And their ability to tax or control fades. 5b. The End of the Westphalian System Since 1648, the world has been ruled by nation-states. But if productive individuals live in cyberspace, state borders become meaningless. States may resort to coercion predatory taxes, surveillance accelerating elite exit. Eventually, they may become "nanny states" serving only immobile, less wealthy citizens. 5c. The Final Frontier: Privacy vs. Taxation Today’s chains are transparent. But zero-knowledge tech (ZKPs) will bring complete anonymity. Combined with stablecoins, this creates an untouchable financial black box breaking the state’s final tool: taxation. Conclusion: The French Revolution replaced monarchs with nations. This revolution led by stablecoins and AI replaces territorial sovereignty with network and individual sovereignty. It’s not just a transfer of power it’s a decentralization and de-nationalization of power. We are witnessing the breakdown of an old world and the birth of a new order that grants individuals unprecedented freedom, but also unleashes unprecedented chaos.
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朕躬有罪,无以万方;万方有罪,罪在朕躬 @myanTokenGeek 😜 https://t.co/0fVIxzKKYA
《孟岩:美元稳定币独霸天下,有人后悔了吗?》(作者:孟岩)特朗普签署 GENIUS 法案后,美元稳定币正式进入美国法律体系,确立其在全球链上经济的统治地位。许多非美元经济体因观望或顾虑风险错失布局,如今稳定币已在拉美、非洲等地广泛渗透,货币主权面临实质挑战。各国需正视形势,重新定位在全球数字金融体系中的角色。阅读全文:https://t.co/6xvDXmlKUb
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《美元稳定币将如何挑战现有法币体系及国家形态》(作者 @rickawsb)通过历史类比,指出美国借《GENIUS 法案》赋予美元稳定币发行商类似东印度公司的特许地位,试图重塑全球金融秩序。稳定币不仅强化了美元霸权,还可能引发弱国货币主权的瓦解,推动资产和资本的“非国家化”。 文章认为,这是一场深刻的金融变革,标志着国家对货币与权力的控制正在被去中心化技术瓦解,预示主权个体时代的到来。阅读全文: https://t.co/neBFFNa8P0
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稳定币法案的通过,极大加速了去中心化席卷全球的速度 去中心化理解得再简单一点,就是去中介化 比方说,visa是支付的中介,银行是钱的中介,投行是资本的中介 再深一层,公司是价值创造的中介,政府是价值分配的中介 去中心化,将改变(消灭)以上所有的中介形态
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以太坊入门101
有小伙伴担心eth涨了,gas费用高,用户交易费用无法控制。如果像上个周期一样没有L2,确实有压力。不过这个周期已有L1+L2架构的扩容(如Gas limit的提升、数据可用性的优化、zk技术应用等),L2可以承载更大规模的交易量,即便eth涨到1万美元,按照目前交易拥堵情况,取均值,base、zksync等L2依然可以实现低于1美元的交易费用,大约在几美分到几十美分左右。而且,L1/L2组合性的扩容还在持续进行。eth涨起来了,gas费用会涨到跟上个周期一样的情况(数百美元)不太可能出现。即便未来稳定币支付也可以承载,未来Danksharding、BLOB数据可用性扩展、ZK证明压缩、单slot最终性、无状态客户端等会将TPS逐步推向万级甚至数十万级别。 最后,按目前交易量数据来假设L1的费用情况,即便ETH达到10,000美元,按照当前数据,简单转账费用均值也低于1美元;在dex上的交易费用,均值大约2-3美元左右。ETH达到10000美元时,只有在高峰拥堵期,简单转账的费用才会突破10美元,ERC20转账则才会突破30美元,DEX交易所交易才会70美元。只要用户不是在高峰期进行操作,L1的费用相对于上个周期下降了很多。另外,L2也可以承接L1交易量的外溢,这样,以太坊生态大概率不会因为ETH价格上涨而出现上个周期一样的费用极端高企(数百美元)的情况。
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