注册并分享邀请链接,可获得视频播放与邀请奖励。

Art of Speculation
@ArtofSpecuycky
这是唯一的账号 没有任何助理 不收费免费分享大家别被骗了 holder of #BTC#, #NVDA#,#MRVL#, #IREN#,#ALAB#, #HOOD#, #CRCL,AI基本面,宏观分析#
加入 October 2021
1.2K 正在关注    11.5K 粉丝
看到 $IREN 大多头写的文章后,跟我前几天写的观点其实很像,我也觉得6月份左右会有一个新的deal要谈成。 很多人现在对 $IREN 很失望,因为隔壁 $NBIS 已经涨成推理之王了,而 IREN 还在盘整。 去年10月 IREN 发了 $10 亿可转债,一个月后宣布微软 $97 亿 AI 合同;现在他们又刚刚完成 $30 亿、1% 利率、高 conversion premium、$110 capped call protection 的可转债融资。 正常公司不会提前囤接近 $55 亿现金,资本是有成本的,除非管理层已经知道未来几年这些钱会投向哪里。 这次和过去最大的区别是,当年的 IREN 只是“有电力的矿企”,现在它已经有 Sweetwater 通电、Mirantis software stack、Nvidia 战略合作、AI cloud revenue acceleration 和全球 5GW power pipeline。它正在从出租 GPU capacity升级成真正的 AI infrastructure platform。 $NBIS 是市场天然愿意给高估值的 AI 云公司,而 IREN 走的是另一条 underdog 路线:从矿企 → 电力资产 → AI infra → hyperscale platform 的逆袭故事。这种公司不会线性上涨,但一旦市场认知切换,重估速度会非常快。所以我认为,这次 $30 亿融资更像是在为某个还没公布的大东西提前备战(比如说一个大的deal),而不是单纯融资。 可以看看去年同样是融资的时间线,你看看有没有发现什么相似之处。 $IREN 这个融资节奏我觉得越来越像重大合同前的提前备战: • 2025年6月:融资 5亿美元 • 2025年10月:融资 10亿美元(原计划8.75亿,后来超额扩大) • 2025年11月:融资 20亿美元 → 随后不久宣布微软97亿美元AI合同 • 2026年5月:再次融资 30亿美元,利率低到只有1%,而且稀释限制在110美元以上 • 2026年6月:???(宣布大合同吗)
显示更多
5/15/26 Portfolio $IREN: 95.66% | Closed all Covered Calls I closed all my covered call positions previous ~20% of my shares. From this one week, I netted more than my monthly salary. I am closing the covered calls because I see a 35% of a deal being signed late May or June. This is because IREN just raised a 3B convertible at 1% interest and high conversion premium. From IREN's side I cannot see why they would need 3B except to get SW1 going. From the investor side, I cannot see why they would agree to lend IREN on high conversion premium unless IREN showed them that the 3B will be used to move the stock price up. At the same time I'm at a 35% chance instead of 50%+ because IREN will be signing 2027 capacity which I originally thought would be in the fall. Very high bulk transactions and call options also suggest deal. Never the less 35%+ chance of deal means that it's obviously not worth it to have cover calls on for rest of May and most of June. Last time it took ~1 month from IREN's 1B convertible to MSFT deal. I use the profits from covered call play to open $52 weekly puts as I am fine with them b eing assigned. Cash: 1.84% Cash position remained same but I didn't include my rainy day fund from my calculations like I did last time. $TSLA: 1.83% Funnily enough, TSLA is basically like my other cash position nowadays. Very long consolidation with $410-$450 resistance. My last tranche of shares is 7.3x so tax is very high if I sell. My buys earliest would be 20x+ but I traded in and out of those long ago. $INV: 0.58% Thanks to @MarkosAAIG, I wrote about it here: $OUST: 0.08% Thanks to @daniel_koss. I started a start position at $26 but this one moved faster than I could accumulate a sizable position. My target for this year is $40-$45 and I'll keep studying to see what prices I want to keep accumulating it and write a post on it.
显示更多
0
17
54
9
转发到社区