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Ashlyn He
@AshlynHe1129
AI穿戴产品创业中 |前字节&牛津AI startup | LSE alum Building ZenStellar @HeAisling 🍠:Ashlyn超爱喝奶茶 📮:ashlynhe1129@outlook.com
加入 April 2024
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a16z豪掷11亿美元押注“机器时代”:AI竞争正在转向“模型之下” 这一轮AI竞争,最先不够用的,可能不是模型,而是承载模型的机器。 a16z最近成立了一只规模达11亿美元的“Machine Age”基金。它在官方帖中把投资方向说得很清楚:芯片、内存、网络、系统软件、电力,以及将AI带入物理世界的各种机器。 这不是说模型不再重要,而是模型发展太快,以至于它下面的整个计算系统开始跟不上了。 过去几年,我们判断一家AI公司是否领先,常常看模型参数、推理能力和排行榜。但模型真正运行起来,需要芯片处理,需要内存保存数据,需要网络连接大量服务器,也需要供电和冷却。到了机器人等物理设备上,还要解决传感器、机械结构、可靠性和量产问题。 这些过去不太受互联网投资者欢迎的“硬问题”,现在反而成了AI发展的瓶颈。 这也是a16z这只基金最值得关注的地方。作为一家长期以软件投资著称的机构,它正在把硬件变成正式的投资方向。官方披露,近几年进入其视野的硬件创业项目,已经从很小的比例上升到约20%以上。 资本显然意识到,模型能力可能越来越容易获得,但让模型以更低成本、更高效率进入真实世界,仍然非常困难。 未来的机会因此不只属于大模型公司。有人可以重新设计芯片,有人可以提高内存带宽,有人可以改造数据中心内部的网络和供电,也有人可以制造真正有用的机器人。甚至系统软件也会重新成为重要生意,因为再昂贵的硬件,如果不能被有效调度,同样只是低效运转的机器。 不过,这场投资也包含风险。 a16z相信AI需求还会快速增长,因此今天的硬件和基础设施远远不够。但如果AI应用最终无法创造足够收入,那么大量芯片、设备和数据中心也可能变成昂贵的过剩产能。软件方向错了,可以快速修改;硬件方向错了,留下的却是库存、厂房和债务。 所以,“机器时代”既是机会,也是一次规模巨大的产业判断。 a16z真正押注的,并不是某一种芯片,也不只是机器人。它押注的是:AI不会永远停留在聊天窗口里。它会进入服务器、汽车、工厂、家庭和各种机器,而承载这些智能的硬件与系统,需要被重新设计一遍。 模型仍然是大脑。但下一阶段的竞争,是谁能为这个大脑造出更好的身体。
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Today, a16z is announcing the Machine Age Fund, a new $1.1 billion fund for founders rebuilding what intelligence runs on: chips, memory, networking, systems software, power, and the machines that bring AI into the physical world. Ben Horowitz, Martin Casado, and Raghu Raghuram see a new economic law. A thousand engineers cannot erase a two-year software lead, but a massive GPU cluster can turn capital directly into capability. Models are improving faster than the memory, interconnect, power, and cooling beneath them. The founder map is changing with it. Some of the strongest teams are moving from pure software into complex hardware because every constraint in the stack is now a company-building opportunity. In this conversation with Erik Torenberg, they explain what founders can build, why the opportunity reaches all the way down to the physical stack, and why a16z created a fund for it. 00:00 Intro 01:08 Why AI needs an entirely new infrastructure 02:02 The bottleneck is no longer the model 02:40 Founders saw it before investors did 06:07 Sold out through 2028 07:14 Why this time is different from 1999 08:57 The company whose idle hardware gained value 10:51 "Why didn't this fund exist five years ago?" 13:51 "Nobody likes to use AI more than AI" 17:06 The startup law that capital just broke 21:05 What Grok Bot got right 26:43 The case for a custom chip per model 28:23 Why AC power isn't good enough 32:07 Lots of new electricians 34:14 What one gigawatt can power 35:03 Why utilities can't just build faster 37:22 The data centers that give power back 38:01 Why we should never have called it AI 39:43 Why Nvidia will willingly leave money on the table 48:08 Hardware founders are older 52:36 Why America has to lead YouTube: @bhorowitz @RaghuRaghuram @martin_casado @eriktorenberg
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