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James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
Chief Market Strategist @WellingtonAltus. PhD Econ. Astute, observations and conclusions. Personal views. Not investment advice. Please do your own research.
加入 November 2019
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Trump’s Economic Progress Deserves More Credit President Trump’s economic accomplishments deserve more recognition. Beneath disappointing payroll headlines, an economy investing in productive capacity is taking shape. Third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate. Consumer spending and fixed investment together expanded 4.9%, hardly an economy losing momentum. September’s establishment survey showed just 29,000 additional jobs. But the household survey asks people directly whether they have a job. It showed 406,000 more Americans working. Private employers added 46,000 payroll jobs while government employment declined by 17,000. Reducing unnecessary bureaucracy while businesses hire is a welcome rebalancing. Two forces underpin the opportunity: AI capital spending and America First reindustrialization. Trump’s restoration of 100% immediate expensing for eligible equipment strengthens investment incentives, including for qualifying AI hardware. A separate provision extends that treatment to qualifying manufacturing facilities. Manufacturing has added 72,000 jobs since December. New factory commitments from Audi and Bayer reinforce the potential. America’s world-leading oil production and record natural-gas output provide another advantage for factories and power-hungry computing infrastructure. Even the Federal Reserve recognizes the supply-side improvement. Its latest statement declares that “productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.” Its Monetary Policy Report explains why that matters: strong productivity gains make current wage growth roughly consistent with 2% inflation over time. More investment and greater output per worker can support higher wages without fueling inflation. With twelve-month trimmed-mean PCE inflation near 2.3%, below spring readings, that opportunity deserves attention. Grocery inflation is easing, too: annual CPI food-at-home inflation slowed to 1.8% in September, down from 2.7% a year earlier, an encouraging development for household budgets. Affordability remains a challenge, but the latest acceleration in headline inflation owes much to higher energy prices associated with the Iran conflict. Gasoline accounted for more than half of September’s monthly CPI increase. Those costs are real, but they must be weighed against the stakes: preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. That is a price worth paying to confront a far greater danger.
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