On October 1, 2020, one day before the U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed charges against BitMEX  and its four key executives, Samuel Reed, co-founder and CTO of BitMEX，was taken into custody in Massachusetts and would be presented before a federal court in Massachusetts. On April 6, 2021, Arthur Hayes landed at an airport in Honolulu, where he surrendered to federal agents on the tarmac. In August 2021, BitMEX itself reached a civil settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, agreeing to pay $100 million in civil penalties. According to individuals familiar with the matter, all defendants initially pleaded not guilty in the criminal proceedings. However, between February and March 2022, BitMEX’s three co-founders each changed their pleas and agreed to plead guilty. Arthur Hayes pleaded guilty in February 2022 to violating the Bank Secrecy Act and related AML requirements, and agreed to pay a $10 million criminal fine.  In May 2022, he was sentenced by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York @SDNYnews to six months of home detention followed by two years of probation. The same court also ordered the other two BitMEX co-founders to each pay $10 million in penalties. Benjamin Delo was sentenced to 30 months of probation without home detention, while Samuel Reed received 18 months of probation. In late 2021, Gregory Dwyer agreed to be extradited from Bermuda to the United States. On August 9, 2022, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Gregory Dwyer, BitMEX’s Head of Business Development, had also pleaded guilty in the criminal case. He admitted to violating the Bank Secrecy Act by willfully failing to establish, implement, and maintain an AML program at BitMEX. Under the terms of his plea agreement, he agreed to pay a separate $150,000 criminal fine. Dwyer was subsequently sentenced to one year of probation. In total, BitMEX-related penalties amounted to approximately $130 million. Following the enforcement actions by U.S. authorities, both Arthur Hayes and BitMEX suffered significant reputational and operational setbacks. In the years that followed, Hayes increasingly repositioned himself as a high-profile commentator in the crypto space, frequently promoting speculative projects and leveraging his industry influence and social media presence to attract retail investors. @TheJusticeDept @CFTC  @USDOJ_Intl   @bitmex @CryptoHayes  @bendelo  @STRML_ @BitMEX_Ethan @Crypto_slutz @r_polansky @sudhu_aru @BitMEX_sandisam @business @markets @BloombergAsia @Reuters @watcherguru @zachxbt @insiderwire  @WhalePanda @Tintinx2021 @yq_acc @RichardPtardio @JamesWynnReal @muphasamc @huskyXBT @JSeyff @0xcryptosam @degeneratenews @crypto_condom

5月4日——5月10日当周宏观大事纪要： 核心叙事，地缘博弈+能源价格+就业数据周+部分企业财报！ 一，首要叙事，美伊谈判博弈， 时间逼近5月15日特朗普访华，面对伊朗强硬的谈判提案，特朗普如何应对，能否在15号之前成功恢复霍尔木兹海峡通行！时间紧迫，本周重点博弈 1，伊朗方面是否修改提案要求，促进第二轮谈判可能？ 2，美国面对当前伊朗强硬提案能否接受还是拒绝？ 3，双方依旧处于僵局，地区国家是否成功调停环节矛盾，让双方在15号之前坐下谈判？ 4，第二轮谈判最大进展个人认为仅仅是可能恢复霍尔木兹海峡的通行！ 二，地缘引导下的能源价格走势？ 能源价格→通胀预期→货币政策路径，目前市场预期2027年4月前美联储有40%左右的加息概率，也就是说当前宏观市场是出于不加息与不降息的区间，市场是转向加息预期还是降息预期，关键看通胀，其次看原油价格。 维持两个月的美伊冲突带来油价处于高位，快速解决海峡问题让原油价格回归下跌趋势，是当前市场关注重点 其次，OPEC+组织表示6月将会提升产量，如果在伴随着海峡尽快恢复，原油价格可能会加速回落，海峡依旧是核心问题，不解决，增产无法抑制能源价格处于高位的趋势。 原油价格的下跌=通胀预期放缓=降息预期回归，反之亦然。 三，就业数据周+服务业数据 1，周二21:45 美国4月ISM非制造业PMI数据，关注服务业通胀情况是否环境，看数据是否加深通胀担忧，同时也要看能源冲击对就业的影响 本周制造业PMI数据显示出部分的滞胀预期，通胀问题存在，需求稳定，但是就业下滑，如果服务业也显示出同类情况，意味着市场将会加速滞胀预期。 2，周五20:30分美国4月就业数据，目前数据预期失业率不变就业下滑，就业市场继续降温。如果数据符合预期，叠加本周制造业PMI，还有周二的服务业PMI数据都显示出就业降温，意味着美国经济滞胀预期将会增加。 滞胀预期的出现将会让美联储更加为难，尤其是鲍威尔确定主席职位到期之后还担任理事，这会影响特朗普对美联储的变革与控制，通胀问题依旧不能忽视，沃什的个人掌控能力削弱 一旦滞胀预期出现，美联储内部的分歧会更加扩大，就业没有风险是不能促进降息预期增加，但是就业持续降温加上通胀上涨引发滞胀预期，可能会让鲍威尔为主的理事们主张继续保持高利率甚至小概率加息可能性。 当让，个人认为，鲍威尔大概率在目前阶段不会让加息预期回归，否则美国经济会难以承压出现风险。 3，周二、周三的职位空缺，与小非农数据如果不出现较大的数据差异，基本上不会产生太大影响。 四，美股财报继续公布 AI板块：PLTR、AMD、SMCI、ARM、APP、CRWV 消费板块：DIS、UBER、MCD、SHOP 能源板块：SHEL、OXY、MPC 加密板块：COIN 美股财报继续公布，将会影响美股是继续新高还是开始回调，当然最重要的科技巨头本周没有财报公布，算是减缓了市场的财报压力。 五，五一假期金融市场流动性较低 五一假期，到5月5日前，中国与日本等多地股市休市，全球金融市场缺乏流动性，波动风险会更大，5号之后陆续开市，流动性恢复，市场真正有效的交易时间只有三天。 本章总结: 新的一周，依旧是地缘因素与宏观经济数据进行博弈，一旦美伊走向第二轮谈判的信号明确，利好情绪会推动风险资产上涨 如果本周美伊之间依旧处于博弈，宏观市场会逐渐对地缘问题脱敏，视为常规博弈期，继而会将交易重心与预期转向宏观数据。 双方谁来主导当前的宏观市场主线，依旧要看市场的真实反映了，注意区分，尤其是新的一周前两天流动性缺乏，注意宏观事件引发区间波动放大造成风险！

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