Lite FY2026 Q4财报：买方预期，几个关键指标明显超预期 8月11日，Lite公布FY2026 Q4财报。值得关注的是FY2027 Q1的指引，以及OCS、CPO/NPO和激光器业务透露出来的信息。 华尔街机构对于财报前瞻中，对Lite的态度其实相对谨慎，这点从财报钱股价下跌可以看出来。公司给出的FYQ1 revenue guidance为12.25亿—12.75亿美元，non-GAAP operating margin guidance则达到39.5%—40.5%，中点40%。当然对于我来说，我心里预期FY2027 Q1的指引应该可以达到1.3b甚至更高，这次官方财报还是偏保守。 第二个明显超预期来自operating margin。 买方此前预计FYQ1 non-GAAP operating margin大约38%，而公司实际给出的指引达到39.5%—40.5%，中点40%，比买方预期高出大约200bp。这个数字的重要性不亚于营收。 如果Lite只是通过扩大transceiver出货量把营收从10亿美元推到12.5亿美元，那么市场完全可以质疑这种增长的质量，因为transceiver本身的margin未必特别高。但现在我们看到的是营收快速增长的同时，operating margin也在快速扩张。 第三个超预期来自OCS。 买方此前已经把“OCS ramps quickly, bringing additional revenue / profitability source”列为Lite重要的upside driver。而这次财报显示，OCS的兑现速度比市场此前想象得更快。 FYQ4 OCS shipment环比翻倍，而公司预计FY2027 Q1的OCS revenue将首次进入“triple-digit million-dollar quarter”，也就是说单季度收入将超过1亿美元。也就是说，Lite目前的增长开始从传统pluggable transceiver和laser，进一步扩展到OCS，这意味着公司的增长引擎正在增加。 第四个值得关注的是CPO/NPO。 此前众多买方认为这次财报大概率不会提供太多新的CPO/NPO timing信息，但实际电话会给出的信息比这个预期更加积极。管理层表示，lead CPO customer的production plan仍然“very much on track”，而且来自这个客户的demand signal相比上一次财报电话会实际上更加强烈。与此同时，ultra-high-power laser预计从CY2027 H2开始明显ramp，为CY2028的scale-up deployment做准备；公司也已经获得首个ELS module purchase order，对应CY2027 H2 delivery。NPO的时间表大致同样落在late 2027到2028，而且部分客户的部署时间甚至可能比此前计划提前一个季度。 因此，这次财报并没有完全解决CPO/NPO最终采用比例的问题，但至少解决了一部分市场最担心的“delay”问题。目前看到的不是CPO推迟，而是production plan仍然on track；不是客户需求减弱，而是demand signal进一步增强。 最后一个非常重要的问题，是laser capacity和Chinese competition。这也是此前市场压制Lite估值的重要担忧之一。市场担心随着中国InP和laser capacity逐渐释放，目前EML供不应求的格局最终会结束，进而导致laser pricing下降和Lite gross margin承压。但这次管理层对这个问题的回答相当明确：“We obviously haven't seen any impact on our numbers as yet. I don't expect there to be any impact.”更重要的是，Lite目前仍然能够维持premium pricing。原因并不仅仅是行业供不应求，而是公司的laser consistency、performance以及客户生产过程中的yield表现具有差异化。对于光模块客户来说，如果使用更稳定的laser能够提高整个transceiver manufacturing yield，那么即使Lite的laser价格更高，客户依然愿意支付premium。 因此，至少到目前为止，市场原来担心的：中国laser capacity增加 → 供需缓解 → laser价格下降 → Lite gross margin下降这条逻辑并没有得到验证。实际情况反而是中国供应能力增加的同时，Lite依靠产品性能、consistency和客户yield优势继续维持pricing power。这对于Lite的长期margin逻辑非常关键。

新版的 GLM 5.2 基本稳稳站住全球开源模型第一的位置了，作为开源模型可以排到全球前三。上一个这么牛逼的还是 DeepSeek，给 AI 圈带去一点震撼。Claude 4.6 之后提升就没那么大了，4.6 也是 AI 编程的可用线。前端时间巨头们开始对 AI 投入算总账，几十亿美金的 AI 账单，现在用开源的GLM 5.2自己部署，就能立即省下高额的 AI 账单，Claude 的收入端可能要大受影响了。 中美顶尖 AI 的差距大概也就是半年左右，另一方面也说明大模型的护城河没那么深，半年时间的差距并非不可逾越，Anthropic 的万亿估值显然是挺虚的。Claude 年初最辉煌的时候，总有人会说 Claude 多牛逼，迭代速度多强，我去看了一下 zcode 的迭代速度基本是一天一更，这次zcode3.0+GLM5.2 真的和 codex 使用起来没什么太大差距了。 还有中国为什么一直追不上，主要是因为算力资源的限制，假如算力限制放开怕是已经 4:6 开了。可怜的智谱算力一直都不足，难以想象要是有充足的算力且模型是闭源的情况下，难以想象收入会高到什么程度。 The new version of GLM 5.2 basically stand firmly in the first position of the global open source model, as an open source model can be ranked in the world's top three. The last one was DeepSeek, bringing a little shock to the AI circle. After Claude 4.6, the promotion was not so big, and 4.6 was also an available line for AI programming. The front-end time giants are starting to take a general ledger of AI investment, billions of dollars in AI bills, and now deploying themselves with the open source GLM 5.2 can immediately save the high AI bills, and Claude's revenue side may be greatly affected. The gap between the top AI of China and the United States is about half a year, on the other hand, it also shows that the moat of the big model is not so deep, the gap in half a year is not insurmountable, the Anthropic trillion valuation is obviously quite empty. When Claude was at its most brilliant at the beginning of the year, some people would always say how awesome Claude was and how fast the iteration speed was. I went to see that the iteration speed of zcode was basically one change every day. This time zcode3.0 GLM5.2 was really not much different from codex. There is also a reason why China has been unable to catch up, mainly because of the limitation of computing resources. If the limitation of computing power is released, it may have already been opened at 4:6. Poor intellectual spectrum computing power has been insufficient, it is difficult to imagine if there is sufficient computing power and the model is closed source, it is difficult to imagine how high the income will be.

Over the past two weeks, our team XDO has been working closely with @worldlibertyfi — and honestly, it’s been a real surprise for me. 最近两周，我们团队XDO开始和 @worldlibertyfi 密切合作，狠狠的教育了我！ Tbh, I had my own stereotypes at the beginning. Trump-backing, access to top-tier global resources — I assumed the team would be the type like: big vision, endless resources, everyone coming to them instead of the other way around. I mean, you can easily afford to be a “laid-back” team with this level of privilege and prestige.😂 说实话，刚开始接触的时候我是有刻板印象的。总统家族背景，全球顶流资源，我assume团体风格会是：愿景很大、资源很多，一定是所有的资源去找他们。可以猜想这种有顶级资源的美国团队有多么躺。 But after two weeks of working with them, I was genuinely impressed — even humbled. 但接触下来非常惊喜，甚至教育到我。 On nye, co-founder @ZachWitkoff was still handling interviews job. By Jan 2nd — when most people were still in holiday mode — their entire team was fully back in action. Every sync was well-prepared, execution was fast, and nothing was half-hearted. Even though many team members didn’t come from a Web3 background, everyone was actively and intensely learning. In every discussion, they consistently identified the single most critical key to success, made fast decisions, and mobilized the entire team to execute. From @ZachWitkoff & @zakfolkman founding-team-level market strategy decisions to execution, implementation, and even contract reviews — all of that can happen within a single day. 新年当天，Co-founder @ZachWitkoff 还在处理这面试的工作。1月2号，当大多数人还在休假模式的时候，他们已经全员到岗火力全开了。每次对接，准备充分，执行迅速，一点不含糊。虽然，很多人之前没有Web3背景，但是每个人在饥渴的学习Web3的知识。并且每次探讨中，总是可以找到决定事情成功的最核心的KEY，然后快速决策并全团队响应执行。是的，从大市场战略的Founding team决策到对其执行到落地执行包括审核合同，一天足以。 This made me reflect: why is a team with such a background working even harder than many startup founders? 这让我开始反思：为什么有这种背景的团队，反而比很多一般的创业者还拼？ My guess? Because the whole world is watching. If a normal project fails, you pivot and start over. But WLFI is different — with this kind of background, success is expected. That expectation pushes the founding team to focus on how to succeed even more. That pressure forces them to put in 200% effort to prove that what they build goes far beyond what their so-called “background” could ever hand them. 我猜的——因为全世界都在看。普通项目失败了，换个赛道重来就是。但 WLFI 不一样，顶着这种背景，成功变成了是应该的。所以，整个创始团队更聚焦在如何可以更加成功！这种压力，逼着他们必须用 200% 的努力去证明自己可以做的事情要远远超过他们“所谓的背景”可以给予的。 Another detail I noticed: their execution logic is extremely clear. It’s not the “we have resources, let’s just throw money at it” mindset. They are deliberately building long-term value step by step. They value every partner and every dollar — while also knowing how to turn those into weapons for rapid market capture. And when it comes to critical decisions, they don’t hesitate to invest heavily. You can imagine what this combination can ultimately become: top-tier resources + top-tier execution + a massive market = Massive future for @worldlibertyfi $USD1 By the way, this also validates a thesis I shared in my previous article (link below): in 2025, stablecoins are increasingly becoming the bridge to mainstream assets. Sustainability at the business level matters — and this is exactly the direction we’ve been betting on. 而且我观察到一个细节：他们团队做事的逻辑非常清晰，不是那种「有资源就随便造」的心态，而是真的在一步步构建长期价值。珍惜每一个合作伙伴，珍惜每一分钱，但是同时这些也可以成为快速抢占市场的武器。对于关键事情上，丝毫不吝惜。我们可以想象这种组合——顶级资源 + 顶级执行力 + 超级大的市场 WLFI USD1可以成为什么样最终形态。顺便说一句，也验证了我在之前一篇长文里的思考，今年稳定币成为连接主流资产的趋势越来越明显了。业务本身的可持续性。这也是我们一直在押注的方向。 So YEP! My view on WLFI has completely changed. This is a team that genuinely takes execution seriously, and have the power to make all dreams come true. 所以我现在对 WLFI 的看法彻底改变了。至少从合作体验来说，这是一个认真做事并且有实现造梦能力的团队。 If people with backgrounds are working this hard, what excuse do those without one have to be laid-back?? 「Don't make excuses for not being where you want to be. It usually comes down to not trying hard enough, or focusing on the wrong things.」 「Jiayi never used to create anxiety. But from now on, anxiety and self-reflection start with Jiayi.」 有背景的人都在拼命，没背景的凭什么躺平？ 「不要给自己的不够优秀找借口。大多数就是自己不够努力，或者努力方向不对！」 「Jiayi之前不制造焦虑。但是从现在开始，焦虑和反思从Jiayi开始。」 Side note: after deeply engaging with the founding team, I started allocating heavily into $ALTS (already 100% in profit so far) and $WLFI. I’m happy to say that so far, the results have been very encouraging. 题外话： 正式因为深度的接触了创始团队后。我开始重仓WLFI的DAT股票 $ALTS (且翻倍了）和 $WLFI。很开心，目前为止，让我看到了好的结果。 LONG Crypto 🚀 LONG Stablecoin 🚀 LONG Myself

onsemi 推出 Embedded Power Platform（EPP）：用矽晶圓本身當封裝，把多顆晶粒（FET、驅動器、控制器等）整合進單一矽元件，並把電氣、機械、熱設計一起優化。 核心做法 - 封裝不再只是外殼，而是系統性能的一部分 - 可在同一晶圓級架構整合 Si、SiC、GaN - 用既有 12 吋晶圓製程與半導體設計／模擬工具做電源系統整合 宣稱效益 - 功率密度可達現有方案約 3–5 倍 - 開發週期最短可壓到約 4 個月 - 更好散熱、更低寄生電感、更高切換頻率 - 更早發現設計取捨，減少後期大改 - 同一架構可跨功率等級、元件類型與應用擴展 應用場景 - AI 資料中心：早期固態斷路器案例約小 50%、溫度低約 20%，把更多機櫃空間留給運算 - 電動車：牽引逆變器功率密度最高約 4 倍、損耗約降 15%；可用同一平台覆蓋入門到高階車款 - 也瞄準工業自動化與電氣化 合作與時程 - Subaru 為早期合作夥伴，評估未來電動車架構 - 預計 2026 年 開始向汽車與 AI 策略客戶提供樣品

⚡️Energy Brief⚡️Base Power完成10億美元D輪融資，估值達130億美元，總融資額超過25億美元。這家位於奧斯汀的新創企業由Justin Lopas和Zach Dell於2023年創立，建造大型家用電池，提供備用電力、降低電費，並在用電高峰時向電網回饋電力。 該公司推出Base Core，一款美國製造的39.2 kWh家用電池，是目前市場上最大的家用電池之一。Base Power目前每天安裝約100台電池，目標是在年底前將安裝速度翻倍。 本輪融資由Ribbit、Addition、Valor Equity Partners和JPMorganChase的Strategic Investment Group領投，Thrive、a16z、Lightspeed和CapitalG也參與了投資。 @basepowerco Source: TechCrunch

#币安Alpha# POWER 交易竞赛即刻开启！ 🔸 在币安 Alpha 平台交易 POWER ，瓜分价值 20 万美元奖励。 🔸 请在 App 活动页面点击【参与】按钮，仅报名成功后才会计为活动的有效交易量。 🔸 新机制：新锐交易者加成 — 符合资格的 Alpha 竞赛交易者可解锁 1.2倍交易量加成，详见活动公告查看规则。 🔸 引入早鸟加成系数 — 越早交易，加成越高，首日交易享 2.0x 系数 🔸 以活动期间用户的累计购买量为准 (卖出不计入)。 了解更多👇