6月11日至13日，「APEC經濟體中國問題研究專家論壇」（APEC Economies China Studies Scholars Forum）在廣州白雲國際會議中心舉行。來自中國、澳大利亞、汶萊、智利、印度尼西亞、韓國、馬來西亞、墨西哥、紐西蘭、巴布亞新幾內亞、秘魯、菲律賓、俄羅斯、新加坡、泰國、越南等16個APEC經濟體的近百位中外專家學者匯聚一堂，圍繞「中國的發展與亞太的共同未來」這一主題展開深入研討。

#为什么是中国# #WhyChina# The Global Logic of China's Economic Growth in the First Half of 2026: A 4.7% GDP Increase 2026年上半年GDP增长4.7%：中国经济增长的全球逻辑 According to the latest semi-annual report, China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 69.6 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% at constant prices, in line with the annual growth target. Against a backdrop of intertwined international complexities and volatilities, China's economic performance is commendable. Yet, a closer look at the data reveals that the logic underpinning China's economic growth is being reshaped. (I) At the Industry Level, Notable Highlights Emerge: First, new quality productive forces are being cultivated and strengthened at an accelerated pace.** In the first half of the year, industrial production grew robustly. The value-added output of the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and that of high-tech manufacturing grew by 13.3%, both outpacing the overall growth rate of industrial output above a designated scale. This underscores a clear trend toward a high-end, intelligent, green, and integrated industrial structure. Looking at specific products, the output of 3D printing equipment, lithium-ion batteries, industrial robots, and other products emblematic of new quality productive forces surged. The average daily token call volume has reached hundreds of trillions, showcasing the vitality and potential of the digital and intelligent economies. Second, new growth drivers are accelerating to take on a leading role. Preliminary estimates suggest that new growth drivers—encompassing high-end manufacturing, the digital economy, and modern services—contributed over 40% to economic growth in the first half of the year. The economy's distinct shift toward a higher quality and more optimized structure is evident, and this overall trend is accelerating. For instance, industries related to artificial intelligence, such as integrated circuit manufacturing and intelligent vehicle equipment manufacturing, have all maintained high growth rates exceeding 30%, vividly illustrating the pace of China's industrial upgrading. Third, confidence on the investment front is on the rise. In the first half of the year, investment in high-tech industries grew by 4.6% year-on-year. Notably, investment in the manufacturing of aircraft, spacecraft, and equipment, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and information services grew by 23.3%, 8.1%, and 15.5%, respectively. Investment structure best reflects market expectations. The increasing "new economy content" in investments signals an acceleration in the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones. Investment in intellectual property products grew by 9.4%, indicating that enterprises are placing greater emphasis on R&D and innovation. This suggests that technological advancement is not simply about capacity expansion but about qualitative change driven by innovation. (II) Observing a Major Economy Requires Looking Beyond the Immediate Figures to the Long-term Trajectory. Behind the "new economy content" of the semi-annual report lies China's ongoing transformation from a global manufacturing hub to a global center of innovation. At the 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (Summer Davos), observers noted a new phenomenon: a host of unicorn companies are heading to China. They are establishing R&D centers, regional headquarters, and deeply integrating into China's innovation and industrial chains—shifting from "produced in China" to "created in China." So, why China? Economist Justin Yifu Lin, in his book *Demystifying the Chinese Economy, touched upon the theory of the "speed of technological change." He argues that the essence of the industrial revolution is not just the application of new technologies, but more fundamentally, the ever-accelerating pace of technological change. Since the mid-18th century, starting with the steam engine reshaping the textile industry, the snowball of technological change has grown, rapidly sweeping through industries like chemicals and automobiles, ultimately redrawing the geographical map of great power competition. Looking at China today, the trajectory of accelerating technological change is equally clear. A leading enterprise can drive an entire industry, which in turn can boost a whole region. These burgeoning industrial clusters, growing from saplings to forests, not only enhance production efficiency and invigorate market vitality but also effectively improve development quality and resilience. For example, specialized and sophisticated "little giant" enterprises above a designated scale in Beijing, through deep cultivation of innovation chains, supply chain collaboration, and international expansion, have become "connecting points" and "accelerators" for the dual circulation strategy. More importantly, emerging industrial clusters possess powerful spillover effects. The rapid rise of new energy vehicles is not only reshaping the automotive industry but also driving transformations in chips, software, and energy networks, allowing more sectors to gain value from efficiency improvements. The swift advancements in AI and biomedicine are sparking a "gentle qualitative change" in people's livelihoods, significantly enhancing the sense of fulfillment and well-being through smarter, more affordable products and more livable environments. (III) Looking from the First Half to the Full Year, China's Development Momentum Remains Positive. Of course, during this critical period of transitioning between old and new growth drivers, China's economy still faces lingering issues and new challenges. Some core areas are still grappling with "bottleneck" technologies, certain high-tech industries face external risks of "decoupling" and supply chain disruptions, and "involution"-style competition affects the new energy market ecosystem. However, most of these are issues arising from development and transition, and they can be addressed with effort. The supporting conditions and fundamental trends for long-term economic improvement remain unchanged. China's economic journey toward a newer, higher-quality model is itself a process of encountering new problems and solving them along the way. By maintaining confidence, proceeding steadily, and balancing both qualitative improvements and quantitative growth, China's industries are poised to be brimming with dynamism, and the Chinese economy will continue to advance steadily and sustainably. #China# #Jiangxi# #JiangxiEconomy# #世界经济看中国# #赣出新精彩#

AI正在带动人类历史上最大的一波创业潮。 根据Economist, 自2024年以来，美国平均每月新增约46.6万件企业申请，今年6月更达到53.1万件，几乎是2019年月均数量的两倍。

可预见的将来，欧洲将会内战，英法德西一个都跑不了。 唯一的悬念是：美国会不会幸免？ 这是前几天《经济学人》（The Economist）的总编辑詹妮·明顿·贝多斯访谈时，马斯克说的。

推荐一本经济学书籍，把你的经济学知识都串起来！书名：《New Ideas from Dead Economists》（中文名：《来自已故经济学家的新思路》） 书中不仅梳理了经济理论的演变脉络，更帮你看透现代经济的底层逻辑：通货膨胀、市场竞争、政 府政策…… 立即阅读⬇️

In-Depth Investigation: Seizing the Commanding Heights of the Intelligent Era — A Survey of China's Artificial Intelligence Industry Development 深度调研 | 抢占智能时代制高点：我国人工智能产业发展调查 By "Joint Research Team of Qiushi Economics Editorial Department and CCID Research Institute" Translation Interesting comments about Nvidia

祝贺聂辉华教授出任清华大学社科学院长聘教授、博士生导师。 我这位老乡长期在人大工作，是一位真正的“土鳖”——本土培养的有建树的经济学者。主要研究政企关系、企业理论和制度经济学，在《中国社会科学》、《经济研究》、Review of Economics & Statistics 等国内外顶级学术刊物上发表了几十篇论文。

小盘美股ALPHA（2只） 【ALPHA 1：MP Materials（MP）】 - 稀土概念股，周内涨超3% - 五角大楼宣布将入股稀土公司 - 美国供应链安全受益标的 【ALPHA 2：Seer Inc（SEER）】 - 生物科技股，盘前涨超20% - 小盘生物医药股反弹机会 - 关注财报季潜在催化 宏观市场要点 1. 货币政策：美联储内部分歧加大，半数官员支持年底前加息 2. 美伊局势：特朗普确认继续谈判，市场避险情绪降温 3. 财报季：下周二季度财报季正式拉开帷幕 4. 数据前瞻：下周CPI数据将是关键变量 5. 债券市场：美债收益率上行，流动性预期收紧 【风险提示】 - 美伊局势仍有不确定性 - 美联储政策分歧加大 - 科技股估值偏高 - 散户情绪降温，需谨慎追高 报告生成时间：2026年7月11日 数据来源：CNBC、Reuters、Trading Economics、StockAnalysis、Benzinga、Reddit r/wallstreetbets

联合国世界旅游组织数据显示，2025年美国旅游业增长率较全球水平落后超过10个百分点，在全球旅游市场扩张4.7%的同时，赴美游客数量却下降了5.5%。这一分化趋势重现了2017至2019年的情形，当时美国游客年均增长仅1.3%，远低于全球5.7%的增速，其背后原因指向美国政府收紧的边境和签证政策，以及部分关税措施，导致全球旅客选择其他目的地。研究机构Tourism Economics预计，市场份额的流失已导致美国旅游业在2025年损失166亿美元，且2026年旅游账户逆差或将扩大至210亿美元。 来源：Bloomberg

一个冷知识： 过去一年人民币兑换价值变化5%左右； 相当于如果你有100万美元，这一年啥都没干，换成人民币亏了36万人民币的样子。 路透 5 月报道过：有全球机构上调人民币预期，甚至有预测美元兑人民币未来 12 个月到 6.50 一带；Trading Economics 也给出偏向 6.75 的 12 个月估计； 所以满手 USDT 和 USDC 的生活在国内的家人们，现在你们如果没换什么 RMB，问下你们方不方？