特斯拉（TSLA）股价最显著的暴涨期主要是2013年和2020年 2013年（约+344%）：这是早期第一次明显暴涨。Model S量产和销售放量后，股价从年初较低水平大幅攀升（拆股调整后从约2美元附近涨至年底约10美元，年内高点更高）。这是特斯拉从初创阶段向主流电动车品牌转变的关键转折。 2020年（约+743%）：历史上最夸张的暴涨年。受益于持续盈利、Model Y推出、上海工厂产能、疫情下科技股狂热，以及年底纳入S&P 500等因素，股价从年初约28–30美元附近一路飙升至年底约235美元（拆股调整后）。这一年涨幅远超其他年份。 2021年（约+50%）：在2020年基础上继续上涨，并在11月前后达到阶段性高峰（拆股调整后高点约410美元附近），市值一度突破万亿美元。 蒙对任何一个暴涨期，都会带来丰厚的回报，那么下一个暴涨期是什么时候，我认为快了，别天天看股票账面，专注他的产品就行了。

特斯拉這一季的報告，完全把公司定位成AI公司，車型減少，轉產能生產機器人，自駕訂戶數目、自駕哩程納入財報，Robotaxi公開時程，投資xAI等等。但我覺得也許最重要的是馬斯克談到AI晶片的部份。特斯拉的AI5和AI6晶片，要在27年和28年生產，我之前寫過有關AI5晶片「11/6/2025 - 馬斯克最近花很多時間在設計AI晶片，最新的消息，有一個細節大概很少人注意到。之前馬斯克宣佈要幫三星在德州的工廠改進製程，因為AI5的晶片要全部給三星生產，比較舊的AI4則全部由台積電生產，因為台積電現有的製程先進度遠超過三星，三星很需要馬斯克給一個全新的角度來追上台積電。但昨天的新聞是說，AI5在晶片設計上會出現兩款，一款給台積電，一款給三星。對台積電來說，這是一個勝利，把原本被排除在外的商機搶了回來。誰知道三星又出了什麼問題，或者是台積電對馬斯克下了什麼猛藥。」但這是舊聞了，AI世界一天兩變，來看一下新的發展。 特斯拉是一個從頭到尾，完全垂直整合的AI公司，不但有終端面對消費者的電動車、Robotaxi和機器人產品，還有最上游的AI晶片設計及製造。你沒看錯，特斯拉是要當輝達加台積電，馬斯克不是只要設計晶片，他還要蓋晶圓廠TeraFab。Ben Thompson最近一直強調，如果不要受限於台積電太過保守的晶圓廠投資規模，AI公司，就要扶植台積電的競爭者，三星和英特爾當然是最直觀的受益者，但沒有人，連黃仁勳都沒有說要自己蓋晶圓廠！我們不知道馬斯克是要自己蓋，還是找伙伴一起，但如果你要征服世界，就要有這樣的遠見和野心，為未來的瓶頸，先投資人材和金錢下去！ 馬斯克的原話： 「為了要移除三、四年內可能有的限制，我們需要蓋一個特斯拉TeraFab」「一個非常大的晶圓廠，在國內做邏輯、記憶和包裝」「即使把我們關鍵供應商的產出最佳情況考慮進去，仍然不夠」「如果我們不蓋特斯拉TeraFab，我們會受限於供應商可以提供給我們的晶片。而且我認為記憶體可能是比AI邏輯晶片更大的問題」「非常重要的是，我們也要對地緣政治風險買保險，我覺得人們可能低估了未來幾年會相當重要的一些地緣政治風險」「我知道晶圓廠很難，但我們做了很多困難的事」「老實說，不試試TeraFab才是真瘋子」。

Q4 Shareholder Update → — Highlights 2025 marked a critical year for Tesla as we further expanded our mission & continued our transition from a hardware-centric business to a physical AI company. We also laid the foundation for the future of Tesla by further advancing FSD Supervised, launching our Robotaxi service, beginning to install production lines for Cybercab & fine-tuned our production-primed Optimus design while expanding our AI training infrastructure. In 2026, we will further invest in the infrastructure needed to support clean energy + transport as well as autonomous robots. This includes the ramp of 6 new production lines across vehicle, robots, energy storage & battery manufacturing. We're building a world of amazing abundance. LFG! Automotive – APAC region continues to show strength across multiple markets & set a record for deliveries this quarter – Preparations in North America continue for the production ramps of Tesla Semi & Cybercab, both commencing in the first half of 2026 & production of the next gen Roadster Energy generation + storage – Highest quarterly energy storage deployments, driven by record Megapack deployments – Total gross profit = $1.1 billion, marking our 5th consecutive record quarter! – Megapack 3 & Megablock production starting at Megafactory Houston this year – In 2025, Powerwall network supported more than 89k Virtual Power Plant events across >1 million installed units, saving homeowners >$1 billion in electricity bills Robotics – Planning to unveil Optimus Gen 3 in Q1 this year, our first design meant for mass production – Start of production planned by end of 2026, with eventual planned capacity of 1 million robots/year AI Training Compute – Currently building Cortex 2 at Giga Texas to further increase our AI training compute capacity – In the first half of 2026, we're planning to more than double the size of onsite compute in Texas (in terms of H100 equivalents) Battery – Our lithium refinery started pilot production. It is the first spodumene to lithium hydroxide refinery in North America, with a simpler, cheaper & more environmentally friendly process – Started producing battery packs for certain Model Ys with our 4680 cells, unlocking an additional vector of supply – We now produce dry electrode for 4680 cells with both anode + cathode made in Austin – We expect both domestic cathode material in Austin & LFP lines in Nevada to begin production this year AI Software – Shipped latest version of FSD Supervised (V14), which will drive you to your destination, find a free spot & park AI Inference Compute – Development of our in-house, custom designed AI5 & AI6 inference chips for autonomy progressed during Q4, with production planned for 2027 & 2028 respectively – Targeting a 50x improvement for AI5 compared to AI4, thanks to 10x raw compute, 9x memory capacity & 5x hardened block quantization & softmax function (= enabling efficient low precision computing without sacrificing model accuracy) Automotive + Other Software – Robotaxi app no longer has a waitlist in the areas we serve – Our vehicles keep getting better with over-the-air software updates: Grok w/ navigation commands, Photobooth, Supercharger Site Maps, Automatic HOV Routing, & more Robotaxi – Began testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin in December & began removing safety monitor from customer rides in January – Our Bay Area ridehailing service now serves SJC, with plans to expand to other Bay Area airports upon receiving required permitting – Cumulative paid Robotaxi miles have now exceeded 600k FSD Supervised – Launched in Korea, where customers drove >1 million kilometers in just one month – We continue to pursue regulatory approval in China & Europe – FSD Supervised subscriptions more than doubled in 2025