郭明錤｜Ming-Chi Kuo(@mingchikuo):In the fast-moving tech industry, can data from industry checks go six months without an update and still track a company’s guidance more closely than market consensus? That’s rare, but here’s one example where the research held up, with a little luck on my side. ASML's latest Q2 2026 results further validate several predictions I made six months ago (in January). The most important of them, and the easiest to verify with hard numbers, is the EUV shipment outlook. EUV is different from consumer electronics, where forecasts shift constantly. Strong AI demand and the difficulty of expanding upstream capacity mean that my EUV shipment estimates, based on capacity changes at the key supplier Carl Zeiss SMT, have stayed closer to the company's guidance than the market consensus over the past six months, even without any updates. ASML's 2026 / 2027 EUV shipments: 1. In January, I forecast 2026 / 2027 shipments of 67 / 80-85 units, and noted that 2027 EUV was already sold out. At the time, the market consensus for 2026 shipments was just 53-55 units. 2. In its Q1 2026 results in April, ASML gave shipment guidance of at least 60 / 80 units for 2026 / 2027. Notably, the first time the company offered guidance as far out as 2027, the number already fell within my January forecast range. 3. In its latest Q2 2026 results in July, ASML raised the 2026 / 2027 numbers to about 65 units (excluding High-NA) / about 85 units (implied by the company's guidance), and noted that nearly all the EUV orders it needs for 2027 are already in, bringing the outlook even closer to my January forecast of 67 units for 2026 and "sold out" for 2027. Worth noting: even though more bullish expectations of around 90 units or more for 2027 had surfaced ahead of the Q2 2026 results, the outlook the company ultimately provided (about 85 units) still landed at the upper end of my January forecast range.

2026.07.16 16:30

In the fast-moving tech industry, can data from industry checks go six months without an update and still track a company’s guidance more closely than market consensus? That’s rare, but here’s one example where the research held up, with a little luck on my side. ASML's latest Q2 2026 results further validate several predictions I made six months ago (in January). The most important of them, and the easiest to verify with hard numbers, is the EUV shipment outlook. EUV is different from consumer electronics, where forecasts shift constantly. Strong AI demand and the difficulty of expanding upstream capacity mean that my EUV shipment estimates, based on capacity changes at the key supplier Carl Zeiss SMT, have stayed closer to the company's guidance than the market consensus over the past six months, even without any updates. ASML's 2026 / 2027 EUV shipments: 1. In January, I forecast 2026 / 2027 shipments of 67 / 80-85 units, and noted that 2027 EUV was already sold out. At the time, the market consensus for 2026 shipments was just 53-55 units. 2. In its Q1 2026 results in April, ASML gave shipment guidance of at least 60 / 80 units for 2026 / 2027. Notably, the first time the company offered guidance as far out as 2027, the number already fell within my January forecast range. 3. In its latest Q2 2026 results in July, ASML raised the 2026 / 2027 numbers to about 65 units (excluding High-NA) / about 85 units (implied by the company's guidance), and noted that nearly all the EUV orders it needs for 2027 are already in, bringing the outlook even closer to my January forecast of 67 units for 2026 and "sold out" for 2027. Worth noting: even though more bullish expectations of around 90 units or more for 2027 had surfaced ahead of the Q2 2026 results, the outlook the company ultimately provided (about 85 units) still landed at the upper end of my January forecast range.

郭明錤｜Ming-Chi Kuo@mingchikuo

2026.01.27 16:29

My latest supply-chain surveys indicate that Carl Zeiss SMT will significantly expand its EUV and higher-ASP immersion DUV optical system capacity by 20-25% YoY and 40-50% YoY, respectively, in 2027 to meet robust demand from ASML. Coupled with stronger-than-expected shipment outlooks for 2026, ASML's revenue is projected to reach €38–40bn in 2026 and €45–47bn in 2027, outperforming market consensus of ~€34–36bn and ~€41–43bn. Key drivers behind the upside vs. consensus are as follows: 1. 2026 Growth Drivers: ➢ EUV and DUV shipments are estimated at 67 and 355 units, surpassing consensus of 53–55 and 310–320 units. ➢ Driven by strong 2nm demand, TSMC has upwardly revised its 2026 EUV orders twice: from an initial 22 units to 25 units last October, and currently to 28 units. ➢ To capture robust demand from Chinese memory makers, ASML plans to launch a new immersion DUV model NXT:1965i in 4Q26. As a down-spec version of the 1980i series, it complies with U.S. export controls while addressing Chinese clients' needs, serving as a key growth driver for 4Q26 and 2027. 2. 2027 Growth Drivers: ➢ 2027 capacity for both EUV and immersion DUV is currently fully booked thanks to the strong demand; further shipment upside will hinge on ASML’s supply-side improvements. ➢ Based on Zeiss SMT’s expansion, ASML’s 2027 shipments are projected to reach 80–85 EUV systems and 380–400 DUV systems. ➢ Boosted by the new 1965i launch, China’s procurement of high-ASP immersion DUV is expected to grow ~40% YoY in 2027. 3. Additional Upside Potential to Monitor: ➢ Potential ASP hikes for EUV and DUV systems amid prolonged supply tightness. ➢ Ongoing upward revisions for the new 1965i model from Chinese memory suppliers. ➢ Potential Intel Upside: The above estimates exclude incremental EUV demand from Intel. Although Intel has not officially placed orders (explaining its previously lower-than-expected Capex guidance), it has entered discussions with ASML for additional bookings. Intel's incremental EUV demand is projected at 20–30 systems over 2026–2027, of which 3–5 are High-NA EUV.

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