$TSM earnings preview: AI growth, Terafab reset & N2/A14
• Raise TP to NT$2,960, based on 20x 2027E P/E; Hold
• Expect 3Q26 revenue +15.2% QoQ and 67.8% GM; forecast 4Q +12% QoQ and 67.2% GM, supported by Rubin/N2.
• Forecast 2027 revenue +37% YoY, driven by AI, CPUs, networking and modest price hikes.
• Expect 2026 capex guidance unchanged; estimate $83bn/$95bn in 2027/28.
• Terafab expectations reset: Musk says they will build and run the fab themselves, tempering hopes for a major TSMC partnership and is inline with our view
• Expect Apple to adopt A14 in 2028, accelerating its typical three-year node cadence (consumer feedback on recent 2nm mobile SoCs lukewarm)
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