I doubt Jensen Huang will be able to remain as $NVDA CEO. This could put short-term pressure on the stock of the second most valuable company in the world. He has no natural successor within the company. While Huang has not committed any crime or tort, his code of conduct and judgment will be called into question which will likely result in his removal by the NVDA Board. While I don’t see long-term value impairment, many portfolio managers will reduce their $NVDA holdings in the coming weeks as a result of uncertainty over who could succeed Jensen as NVDA CEO. The company’s board said in a statement Sunday it has no reason to believe either the company’s secrets or national security were compromised and expressed confidence in the CEO’s leadership. A committee of independent directors helped by outside counsel would oversee the probe, the board said, and the “inquiry will examine all available information.” “Today’s news will not slow NVIDIA. Jensen is committed to continuing to lead NVIDIA as CEO without interruption,” an Nvidia spokesman said in a statement. Jensen Huang’s Email to Company - Sunday 11/8/2026: Subject: A message I owe my family and all of you an apology. I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry. Throughout my life, my family has given me love and support. They deserve my honesty and loyalty. Instead, I let them down and damaged the life we built together. I take full responsibility for what I did and the hurt I caused, and I accept the criticism that comes with it. To my wife and family: I love you. I know an apology cannot undo what I have done. I hope our family will heal and that, over time, I can earn back your trust. To my colleagues at Nvidia, including those I have worked alongside for decades, our board, partners, and shareholders around the world: you deserve better from me. Leading Nvidia is the privilege of my life. My responsibility is to serve you and be worthy of your trust. I have fallen short of that responsibility. I am fully committed to Nvidia and will work to earn back your confidence. Regarding the national security concerns raised in news reports, NVIDIA’s Board of Directors has initiated an independent investigation. I support the investigation and will cooperate fully. I love our country and our company, and I am committed to protecting NVIDIA and supporting America’s national security. I am proud and grateful to be an American. My family bears no responsibility for my choices. I do. Please give them privacy.

If I annualize last week’s $TSLA 3Q delivery beat of 25,000 (487K vs 462K), and estimate by how much annual adj EPS should increase assuming this is a permanent volume boost, I come up with +.15/share, which should be worth roughly $32/share to TSLA stock price. TSLA is up +$23/share since Friday morning so there may be more near-term upside assuming the market is efficient.

US stocks drifted lower pre-market as Europe’s political and fiscal strains widened, with Spain calling an early election and the euro hitting a 17-month low. Weak September U.S. payrolls (+29K cs +90K exp) erased odds of an October Fed hike. Brent fell to $101/bbl, the 10-year Ty eased to 5.26%, while gold, silver, and bitcoin rose. Chip stocks advanced after Micron’s strong results and guidance; $TSMC gained on talk of a Musk Terafab tie-up, and Tesla extended gains on solid 3Q deliveries. S&P 2026 earnings ests (+32% y/y) imply a 21.1x P/E and a 4.7% earnings yield, well below 10year Treasury yields, echoing the late-1990s peak. I remain cautious on $TSLA given declining forward earnings ests, the continuing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a stretched valuation. For more detail, please see my daily pre-mkt summary for Subscribers.

$TSLA has now reported two consecutive very strong delivery numbers. On Friday, it reported 3Q delivs of 486.5K vs 462.0K consensus. That TSLA delivs were down just -2% YoY vs TSLA’s record 2025 3Q, when the $7,500 EV credit was expiring, says it all. This followed TSLA’s blowout 2Q, when it delivered 480K vehicles vs WS expectations of 406K. Investors are now more focused on TSLA’s efforts to scale up unsupervised autonomy in front of competitors, where TSLA’s generalized FSD technology is clearly superior, but its scale up has fallen far short of management’s guidance (current guidance unsupervised autonomous miles compounding at 10%+ per week; prior guidance unsupervised autonomy with no safety drivers in 8-10 metro areas by 2025 year-end, and prior to that in markets addressing 50% of the U.S. population by 2025 year-end). Today TSLA unsupervised autonomy has been approved for use in six U.S. metros across Texas and Florida (Austin, Dallas, Houston in TX; Miami, Orlando, and Tampa in FL) with the San Francisco Bay Area on deck and Las Vegas approved for permit but still not live. Waymo has been authorized for public fully driverless rides in 15 U.S. metros, including Phoenix, the Bay Area, Los Angeles, San Diego, Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Denver, Nashville, and Las Vegas. Waymo operates roughly 4,000+ driverless vehicles nationwide. Tesla had about 589 vehicles registered in Texas as fully autonomous (420 Model Ys and 169 Cybercabs) as of October 2. YTD TSLA -18% vs NDX +22%.

I’ll accept that it’s both the 50% increase in gas prices since Feb and greater awareness of FSD that are driving $TSLA sales. But since only 35% TSLA sales come from the U.S. and FSD unsupervised is still only approved in a single digit % of the U.S. I’m going to say it’s primarily higher gas prices driving increased global TSLA deliveries. FSD also doesn’t explain why $RIVN beat 3Q estimates so handily: RIVN delivered 19,248 units vs 17,633 est. Because RIVN blew past 3Q expectations but left its FY’26 guidance unchanged at 65K-70K, RIVN stock fell -3% today.

I seriously doubt FSD’s progress in solving for unsupervised autonomy is driving $TSLA sales. Many auto manufacturers ($GOOG, $BIDU, $PONY, $WRD, $AMZN) now have self driving vehicles. As I’ve posted many times, unsupervised autonomy becomes table stakes for remaining in the global EV business. Absent advertising, few consumers other than $TSLA bulls are even aware of how good FSD has become.

US stocks rose pre-market Friday in front of Sept non-farm payrolls as brent crude fell below $100/bbl and the 10-year treasury yield eased after Fed officials signaled no urgency to hike short-term rates again. Bitcoin, gold, and silver all gained. $NKE dropped 10% after offering dismal FY’27 guidance and rev deterioration that mgmt indicated would continue into FY’28. Chip stocks were firm after $MU ‘s strong results and guidance; $GOOG advanced on its Gemini 4 Argon AI rollout. $TSLA edged up ahead of 3Q deliveries. S&P 2026 EPS estimates imply a 20.9x P/E and an earnings yield below Treasuries, a setup last seen near the 2000 dotcom peak. $TSLA valuation looks extended at a 2026 P/E of 225x amid declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates and rising autonomy competition.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ For greater detail, please see our daily pre-mkt summary for Subscribers.

$NKE -4% AH as 1Q revs missed ($11.21B vs $11.33B est) and mgmt guided FY’27 revs to decline by HSD (vs -2%E). The company cited weakness in China, in sportswear, and the Jordan brand and is taking steps to reposition each. FY’2027 Adj EPS guidance of $1.15-$1.35 was well below consensus of $1.65. While NKE pro-forma 2027 P/E of 26.4x (at the midpoint of guidance) is low vs history (~30x forward EPS), an apparel company with negative rev and eps growth and struggling to show that CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan after two years is taking root could be re-rated lower. Conf call at 5pm ET.

10yrTY falling sharply today (-6.9bp to 5.21%) sparked by a weaker than expected Sept ISM report, which is helping $TSLA and other long duration growth names. NDX had been negative until about 1pm ET and is now up +0.5%. Economists estimate the Sept employment report due Friday will show Sept non-farm payrolls expanded by +88K (vs Aug +162K).

US stocks were mixed pre-market as the global bond selloff intensified and a rebound in oil prices offset AI strength. Brent rose 2.2% to $100/bbl and the 10-year yield hit 5.33%, its highest level since 2002. Bitcoin fell and gold was flat. Yesterday’s August PCE came in below forecasts; September payrolls are due Friday. $MU beat and guided higher on AI memory demand, but shares slipped on cycle worries, while peer memory chip manufacturers rose as did $GOOG as its flagship Gemini 4 Argon AI model began rolling out. S&P 2026 EPS estimates imply a 20.9x P/E and 4.8% earnings yield, at the highest level of inversion versus Treasury yields since the late-1990s/2000s dot com peak. $TSLA looks extended at a 225x 2026 P/E vs +45% long-term forward EPS growth amid negative EPS revisions and commoditization of unsupervised autonomy.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ For greater detail see my daily pre-mkt summary for Subscribers.

$TSLA 3Q IR-compiled consensus deliveries is 461,972 -7% YoY. Recall, the $7,500 EV credit expired on 9/30/2025, which likely triggered stepped-up buying in 2025 3Q. $TSLA is expected to announce 3Q deliveries before the market opens on Fri 10/2.

$NVDA added $150B to its buyback program that runs through Jan 2028 and will now have $235B in total buyback capacity. At a current market cap of $5.6 trillion, the buyback will theoretically reduce NVDA market cap by 4.2% over the next 16 months, and potentially increase 2028 Adj EPS by +1.6%, net of interest income on cash to fund the buyback.

$META is drawing growing attention around its consumer AI strategy as Muse strengthens the company’s push into personal AI assistants and raises comparisons with $AAPL when it launched iPhone in 2007. META’s 3.6 billion-user base across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp is a major competitive moat, giving the company enormous reach as it integrates Muse across its existing platforms. Meta has successfully combined AI, hardware and data, with Muse providing the software layer and products such as smart glasses serving as one of several possible interfaces.

The notion that only $TSLA can achieve unsupervised autonomy in EVs is as idiotic as thinking only Chat GPT/ Anthropic’s Claude/ $GOOG’s Gemini, and now $META Muse can build an AI agent that pays your bills, shops, makes bookings, and otherwise runs your life. Barriers to entry are not sky high, substitute products are plentiful, and many formidable competitors are chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Big difference: $META trades at 25x 2026 Adj EPS, while $TSLA is priced at 230x 2026 Adj EPS. Both are expected to grow revs over the next 5 years at +18%.

Kalshi now puts 61% odds on Dems taking back the U.S. Senate in November; Republicans now hold a 4-seat advantage 53-47. Kalshi now attaches a 91% chance to Dems taking control of the U.S. House which Rs now control 218-214 with 1 independent and 2 vacancies. 35 of 100 Senate seats and 100% of House seats are up for grabs on Election Day in 6 weeks on Nov 3.

US stocks opened higher pre-mkt as oil fell and markets anticipated a positive Trump-Xi summit. Brent dropped 2% to $101.77/bbl, 10yr treasury yields eased, and chip stocks and Bitcoin rose. Last week, the Fed hiked short term rates by 25bp on oil-driven inflation from the Iran conflict; Markets expect a second 25bp hike by year-end. 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates have continued to climb (+32% y/y to $365) and now imply a 21.0x forward P/E and a 4.8% earnings yield, which is below the 10-year Treasury yield vs a normal equity premium of 50-100bp. For greater detail, please see my daily pre-mkt summary for subscribers.

As I argued this morning, the Fed’s decision to raise rates and pencil in a second rate hike before year-end was probably the most bearish outcome of the three options before the Fed. A one-and-done interest rate hike would likely have been viewed more favorably by investors, but with a potential extended hiking trajectory now on the table, equities and particularly long duration equities could remain under pressure in the months ahead (RAG +2%, RAV +19% both YTD).

The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise short term interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75-4.0%, and penciled in an additional 25bp hike later this year, steps aimed at containing inflation that will test Fed Chairman Warsh’s relationship with President Trump. “Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the committee’s 2% goal,” officials said in a statement following the move Wednesday, referring to inflation. It was the US central bank’s first rate increase since July 2023. This goes against President Trump’s wish to reduce interest rates, although the Fed decision was likely in response to the 50% increase in the price of Brent crude since end of February, the result of the US war with Iran, which President Trump initiated. The market reaction was in line with expectations: 10-year TY dropped -5.1bp to 4.95%, and equities held onto earlier gains, with S&P 500 +0.4% and NDX +0.7%.

Possible Fed outcomes today: 1/ Bull case scenario: Dovish hike - Fed raises rates by 25bp and makes it clear that there are no plans to raise rates further (Fed will be data-dependent). One-and-done. 10-year TY likely retreats, good for equities. 2/ Moderate case scenario: Hawkish pause - No change in rates, but hawkish talk that signals a likely hike at next month’s meeting. Highly unlikely because next month’s meeting (10/27-28) is right before midterms. 10-yr TY likely flat or rises, mixed for equities. 3/ Bear case scenario: Hawkish hike - 25bp hike but with signal from Warsh this could be the first of several hikes. Unlikely since Warsh wants to get away from forward guidance. 10-yr TY likely increases, which is bad for equities, particularly long duration equities.