$META is drawing growing attention around its consumer AI strategy as Muse strengthens the company’s push into personal AI assistants and raises comparisons with $AAPL when it launched iPhone in 2007. META’s 3.6 billion-user base across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp is a major competitive moat, giving the company enormous reach as it integrates Muse across its existing platforms. Meta has successfully combined AI, hardware and data, with Muse providing the software layer and products such as smart glasses serving as one of several possible interfaces.

The notion that only $TSLA can achieve unsupervised autonomy in EVs is as idiotic as thinking only Chat GPT/ Anthropic’s Claude/ $GOOG’s Gemini, and now $META Muse can build an AI agent that pays your bills, shops, makes bookings, and otherwise runs your life. Barriers to entry are not sky high, substitute products are plentiful, and many formidable competitors are chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Big difference: $META trades at 25x 2026 Adj EPS, while $TSLA is priced at 230x 2026 Adj EPS. Both are expected to grow revs over the next 5 years at +18%.

Kalshi now puts 61% odds on Dems taking back the U.S. Senate in November; Republicans now hold a 4-seat advantage 53-47. Kalshi now attaches a 91% chance to Dems taking control of the U.S. House which Rs now control 218-214 with 1 independent and 2 vacancies. 35 of 100 Senate seats and 100% of House seats are up for grabs on Election Day in 6 weeks on Nov 3.

US stocks opened higher pre-mkt as oil fell and markets anticipated a positive Trump-Xi summit. Brent dropped 2% to $101.77/bbl, 10yr treasury yields eased, and chip stocks and Bitcoin rose. Last week, the Fed hiked short term rates by 25bp on oil-driven inflation from the Iran conflict; Markets expect a second 25bp hike by year-end. 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates have continued to climb (+32% y/y to $365) and now imply a 21.0x forward P/E and a 4.8% earnings yield, which is below the 10-year Treasury yield vs a normal equity premium of 50-100bp. For greater detail, please see my daily pre-mkt summary for subscribers.

As I argued this morning, the Fed’s decision to raise rates and pencil in a second rate hike before year-end was probably the most bearish outcome of the three options before the Fed. A one-and-done interest rate hike would likely have been viewed more favorably by investors, but with a potential extended hiking trajectory now on the table, equities and particularly long duration equities could remain under pressure in the months ahead (RAG +2%, RAV +19% both YTD).

The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise short term interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75-4.0%, and penciled in an additional 25bp hike later this year, steps aimed at containing inflation that will test Fed Chairman Warsh’s relationship with President Trump. “Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the committee’s 2% goal,” officials said in a statement following the move Wednesday, referring to inflation. It was the US central bank’s first rate increase since July 2023. This goes against President Trump’s wish to reduce interest rates, although the Fed decision was likely in response to the 50% increase in the price of Brent crude since end of February, the result of the US war with Iran, which President Trump initiated. The market reaction was in line with expectations: 10-year TY dropped -5.1bp to 4.95%, and equities held onto earlier gains, with S&P 500 +0.4% and NDX +0.7%.

Possible Fed outcomes today: 1/ Bull case scenario: Dovish hike - Fed raises rates by 25bp and makes it clear that there are no plans to raise rates further (Fed will be data-dependent). One-and-done. 10-year TY likely retreats, good for equities. 2/ Moderate case scenario: Hawkish pause - No change in rates, but hawkish talk that signals a likely hike at next month’s meeting. Highly unlikely because next month’s meeting (10/27-28) is right before midterms. 10-yr TY likely flat or rises, mixed for equities. 3/ Bear case scenario: Hawkish hike - 25bp hike but with signal from Warsh this could be the first of several hikes. Unlikely since Warsh wants to get away from forward guidance. 10-yr TY likely increases, which is bad for equities, particularly long duration equities.

Please see my daily pre-mkt summary on my assessment of elevated oil prices caused by Saudi Arabia’s closure of their East-West pipeline, which has driven Brent crude to $105/bbl and caused 10-year treasury yields to spike to 5.05%, its highest level since 2007. This has led value stocks to significantly outperform growth stocks (+20.9% vs +2.7% respectively YTD) with long duration growth stocks like $TSLA impacted most. Money markets now see a 92% chance of a Fed hike (first hike since July 2023) tomorrow following the two-day Fed meeting.

Correlation is not causation. I would argue there are two main reasons $TSLA has grown EV share in the U.S.: One, ICE manufacturers significantly scaled back their EV investments in 2025 to reduce losses. The other major reason was the complete redesign of Model Y beginning in March 2025 (Project Juniper). 1/ Ford, GM, Honda, Volkswagen and others cut or ended several EV SKUs after losses - examples: Ford F-150 Lightning production ended; Honda Prologue and VW ID.4 were discontinued or winding down. Fewer alternatives left Tesla as the default choice. 2/ Tesla Model Y received its first major redesign in early 2025 in what became known as Project Juniper. It was revealed in China on January 10, 2025, with orders opening in North America and Europe later that month. Deliveries began in March 2025. This was the first comprehensive update since the original Model Y launched in 2020. Changes included a new exterior with full-width LED light bars front and rear, a quieter cabin (acoustic glass, better insulation), retuned suspension for a smoother ride, improved efficiency and range, ambient lighting, power-folding rear seats, and a rear passenger touchscreen. Through August 2026, TSLA U.S. sales are -2% YTD vs overall TSLA -16% YTD and overall U.S. EVs -30% YTD. It’s implausible that FSD is driving $TSLA share gains when few outside of TSLA bulls on X are aware of FSD. That said, I continue to believe that if TSLA invested in FSD advertising it would drive TSLA U.S. EV and overall market share meaningfully higher.

$META remains one of our top 15 positions and next to $GOOG is our 2nd favorite media/comms name. We expect META to continue to post +20% revenue growth and +15%+ EBiTDA growth long-term. META has 3.7B Daily Active People growing at 3-4% per year and avg rev per person (ARPP) growing at 20%+ per year and is uniquely positioned through Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp to drive AI-engagement through its user base. At a 2026 P/E of 20.7x vs +15% long term Rev and EPS growth it remains among the cheapest of all Mag 8 stocks.

@wholemars How can people appreciate it if they don’t know about it? The communication is terrible; the private event doesn’t count as communication. You know because you were there. Very frustrating. I’m with @garyblack00 on this.

US stocks rose (SPX +0.5%, NDX +0.6%) as oil eased (brent crude -2.6% to $105) ahead of today’s August CPI, seen as the key signal for a possible Fed hike next week (odds now 70%). Core CPI is expected +0.2% vs headline +0.4% on higher gasoline prices. 10 year treasury yields slipped to 4.94%. Oracle jumped 6.6% on a beat and raised guidance; most chip stocks were higher. Despite higher inflation risks, I am skeptical of a Fed rate hike next week, unless today’s Aug CPI comes in above expectations. Strong 2026 S&P earnings growth of +32% y/y is fueling the current bull market but an inverted equity risk premium and a more restrictive Fed could lead to short-term equity weakness.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Going forward my daily pre-market summary will only be available to Subscribers. Thanks for your continued interest and support.

Prediction: New $AAPL fold phone will become a must-have product for 20- and 30-somethings, will usher in a new iPhone upgrade cycle, substantially increase iPhone ASP, and allows business travelers to bring one small device rather than two. Most 20-30 somethings will want the new iPhone fold phone as a status symbol and to take and display pictures and videos. The absence of a crease when the phone is unfolded is a huge advantage vs Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Google Google 10 Pro Fold phones in the U.S. and Huawei fold phones in China. The biggest risk is limited production of the new iPhone fold phone will limit incremental earnings for potentially 6 months and unknown cannibalization of iPad sales.

US stocks were mixed pre-market as brent crude rose a fifth day to above $100/bbl ahead of the ECB rate decision and $ORCL earnings. Treasuries were little changed at 4.84%. $AAPL gained following its foldable iPhone launch while chip stocks and $TSLA slipped after last week’s vague Cybercab event. Strong August jobs data last week has lifted September Fed rate hike odds to 62%, though tomorrow’s CPI could overshadow the strong jobs report. I remain skeptical the Fed will raise rates at next week’s meeting this close to midterm elections. The forward S&P 2026 P/E of 20.9x puts the S&P 500 earnings yield below the 10-year U.S. treasury yield and vs a typical equity yield premium of +50-100 bp. I remain cautious on $TSLA given declining 2027-30 earnings estimates, the continuing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and TSLA’s extreme valuation.

The cheapest of the Mag 8 on 2026 P/E vs forward long-term eps growth (PEG) is $AVGO at 0.9x (28.0x P/E vs +30% long-term eps growth). The most expensive of the Mag 8 on PEG is $TSLA at 4.8x (222x P/E vs +46% forward eps growth). YTD the best Mag 8 performer has been $NVDA (+20%), which is also one of the cheapest (1.1x PEG); the worst Mag 8 performer has been $TSLA (-18%).

Updated: US stocks declined as Brent crude crossed $100/bbl on escalating US-Iran attacks with no peace talks in sight, lifting gold, silver and bitcoin. 10-year treasury yields ticked higher in front of next week’s Fed meeting. $AAPL shares slipped ahead of its foldable-phone event today; $TSLA fell after recovering yesterday following last week’s uncertain Cybercab event. A strong August jobs report Friday has raised odds of a September Fed rate hike to 62%, although I remain skeptical of a Fed hike less than two months before midterms. S&P 2026 earnings ests continue to rise on AI and energy, but at a 21.1x forward P/E the S&P 500 now yields less (4.7%) than 10yr Treasuries (normal equity premium 50-100bp). We remain cautious on $TSLA given declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates, the continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a stretched valuation (220x forward P/E vs +35% long-term EPS growth, 6.3x PEG).

US stocks searched for direction as Brent crude briefly crossed $100/bbl on escalating US-Iran attacks with no peace talks in sight, lifting gold, silver and bitcoin. 10-year treasury yields ticked higher in front of next week’s Fed meeting. Chip names gained; $AAPL edged up ahead of its foldable-phone launch today and $TSLA slipped after recovering yesterday following last week’s uncertain Cybercab event. A strong August jobs report Friday has raised odds of a September Fed rate hike to 62%, although the I remain skeptical of a move two months before midterms. S&P 2026 earnings ests continue to rise on AI and energy, but at a 21.1x forward P/E the S&P 500 now yields less (4.7%) than 10yr Treasuries (normal equity premium 50-100bp). We remain cautious on $TSLA given declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates, the continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a stretched valuation (220x forward P/E vs +35% long-term EPS growth, 6.3x PEG).

US stocks slipped as Brent crude neared $100/bbl after Houthi attacks halted some Saudi oil operations; the 10-year yield rose to 4.81%. Chips were mixed-to-higher. A strong August jobs report on Friday lifted odds of a Fed rate hike at next week’s Fed meeting to ~60% with the August CPI print Friday. Tomorrow is $AAPL ‘s annual new product event. I remain skeptical about a pre-midterm election Fed interest rate hike. Rising 2026 S&P EPS estimates imply a 21.1x P/E and a CY2026 earnings yield of 4.7%, below the 10-year treasury yield (normal equity premium +50-100bp). I remain cautious on $TSLA given declining long-term earnings estimates, continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and $TSLA’s extended valuation. For greater detail, please see my daily pre-mkt summary for Subscribers.

$AAPL ‘s annual new product event — titled “Surprise and Shine” — is tomorrow, Wed, Sept 9, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. PT / 1:00 p.m. ET. It will be streamed live from the Steve Jobs Theater at Apple Park on the Apple TV app, and YouTube. The event is expected to introduce the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, Apple’s first foldable iPhone (rumored as iPhone Ultra), new Apple Watch models, and possibly AirPods. It’s also the first major product launch under new CEO John Ternus.