I’ve argued for months there is some fundamental reason TSLA’s planned unsupervised autonomy rollout has slowed from addressing half the U.S. population by end of 2025, to doubling fleet size every month (articulated after 1Q), to its current planned growth rate of +10%/week, as articulated by @aelluswamy on the 2Q earnings call. While we all understand the need for $TSLA to go slow given the damage even one headline would cause if a Tesla operated by FSD hit someone, $TSLA stock continues to underperform because investors are losing faith that FSD will ever be able to scale from its current roster of 90-100 unsupervised autonomous vehicles without safety monitors. Meanwhile, $GOOG’s Waymo continues to operate 4,000 unsupervised autonomous vehicles without safety monitors and complete 500K unsupervised autonomous rides per week.

I expect $TSLA to fall below $300/share and $SPCX to break $100/share in the coming weeks on valuation concerns. Both trade at FY’26 P/E in excess of 175x which seems excessive as AI-related valuations continue to unravel.

Those who argue $TSLA should not invest in advertising and instead rely on word-of-mouth and social media to increase FSD usage (FSD take rate currently ~15%) need to consider iPhone’s amazing success building awareness and trial from its launch in 2007. Consider that $AAPL spent $8 billion on advertising from 2007 through 2015 to educate consumers how great iPhone was and to build awareness for its features and benefits. Those who compare $TSLA FSD to iPhone need to acknowledge iPhone didn’t just sell itself. 2026 will be the third consecutive year that TSLA worldwide deliveries will decline despite TSLA having the best EVs with the most advanced autonomous technology on the market and industry EV sales growing by +20-25% per year.