CHOOSE YOUR FIGHTER Warren Buffett vs Stanley Druckenmiller Buffett stepped down as Charman of Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B today. Druckenmiller has never had a losing year in more than 30 years. Here are their full portfolios as of Q2 2026. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - Apple $AAPL: 22% - American Express $AXP: 17% - Google $GOOGL: about 12.6% across both share classes - Coca-Cola $KO: 11% - Bank of America $BAC: 9.2% - Chevron $CVX: 4.7% - Occidental $OXY: 4.3% - Chubb $CB: 3.9% - Moody's $MCO: 3.7% - Kraft Heinz $KHC: 2.6% - DaVita $DVA: 2.1% - Delta $DAL: 1.8% - SiriusXM $SIRI: 1.2% - VeriSign $VRSN: 0.8% - Kroger $KR: 0.7% - Liberty Live $LLYVA: about 0.6% across both share classes - Ally $ALLY: 0.4% - Lennar $LEN: 0.4% - New York Times $NYT: 0.4% - Capital One $COF: 0.2% - Louisiana-Pacific $LPX: 0.1% - Nucor $NUE: 0.1% - Macy's $M: 0.1% - NVR $NVR - Jefferies $JEF - D.R. Horton $DHI DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE - Natera $NTRA: 17% - Insmed $INSM: about 5.7% in shares and calls - Taiwan Semi $TSM: 5.4% - Brazil ETF $EWZ: about 5.1% in shares and calls - Amazon $AMZN: about 4.6% in shares and calls - STMicro $STM: 4.5% - S&P 500 Equal Weight $RSP: about 3.7% in calls and shares - Fox $FOXA: about 2.8% across both share classes - YPF $REPYY: 2.7% - CDW $CDW: about 2.7% in shares and calls - BBB Foods $TBBB: 2.3% - Google $GOOGL: 2.3% - Seagate blockstack:native: 2.3% - United Airlines $UAL: 2.1% - Sea $SE: 2.0% - NewAmsterdam Pharma $NAMS: 2.0% - Russell 2000 ETF $IWM: 1.9% in calls - Sandisk $SNDK: 1.5% - Revolution Medicines $RVMD: 1.4% - S&P 500 ETF: 1.3% in calls - Bitdeer: 1.2% - CRH: 1.1% - Delta: 1.1% - Tesla $TSLA: 1.0% in calls - Fluor: 1.0% - D.R. Horton: 0.9% - Coupang: 0.9% - AMD: 0.8% - Palo Alto Networks: 0.8% - Cleveland-Cliffs: 0.8% - Hut 8: 0.7% - Caris Life Sciences: 0.6% - Argentina ETF: 0.6% - Woodward: 0.5% - Meta: 0.5% in calls - Nuvation Bio: 0.5% - Protagonist Therapeutics: 0.5% - Roku: 0.5% - Cavco: 0.5% - ADMA Biologics: 0.4% - Hyperliquid Strategies: 0.4% - Rambus: 0.4% - Rhythm Pharmaceuticals: 0.4% - Champion Homes: 0.4% - Daktronics: 0.4% - PureCycle: 0.4% - Southern Copper: 0.4% - Linde: 0.4% - Entegris: 0.4% - Teva: 0.4% - Unity: 0.4% - Aeva: 0.4% - Riot Platforms: 0.4% - Qnity Electronics: 0.4% - Equinix: 0.4% - Lam Research: 0.4% - Definium Therapeutics: 0.3% - Belite Bio: 0.3% - 10x Genomics: 0.3% - Wabtec: 0.3% - Eli Lilly: 0.3% - Xenon Pharmaceuticals: 0.3% - Olema Pharmaceuticals: 0.2% - Repligen: 0.2% - Rocket Companies: 0.2% - Baidu: 0.2% - Arm: 0.2% - Carvana: 0.2% - Reddit: 0.2% - Alcoa: 0.2% - Thermo Fisher: 0.2% - Danaher: 0.2% - F5: 0.2% - Vista Energy: 0.2% - Skeena Resources: 0.2% - JBS: 0.1% - Monte Rosa Therapeutics: 0.1% - Relay Therapeutics: 0.1% - DBV Technologies: 0.1% - CCC Intelligent Solutions: 0.1% - UWM Holdings: 0.1% - Navitas Semiconductor: 0.1% - Solstice Advanced Materials: 0.1% - FTAI Aviation: 0.1% - Beam Therapeutics: 0.1% - Aurora Innovation: 0.1% - IREN: 0.1% - Grupo Financiero Galicia: 0.1% - Wave Life Sciences: under 0.1% Both own Google, Delta and D.R. Horton. Neither owns Nvidia $NVDA.

MACY'S $M JUST REPORTED Q2 EARNINGS - Revenue: $4.9B, beating est. of $4.83B 🟢 - Adj EPS: $0.63 (incl. $0.23 tariff refunds) - Adj EPS ex-Refund: $0.40 - GAAP EPS: $0.62 (+100% YoY) (incl. refunds) - Adj EBITDA: $457M (incl. tariff refunds) - Comparable Sales: +2.7% - Go-Forward Business Comps: +2.8% - Macy's Comps: +1.1% Raises FY26 Guidance: - Revenue: $21.7B-$21.8B, below est. of $21.91B 🔴 - Adj EBITDA Margin: 7.8%-8.0% (from 7.7%-7.9%) - Adj EPS: $2.15-$2.35, in line with est. of $2.25 🟡 - Comparable Sales Change: 1.0% to 1.5% (from 0.5% to 1.2%)

MACY'S $M Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $4.9B (Est. $4.83B) 🟢; +1.1% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.63; incl. $0.23 tariff refunds 🔹 Adj. EPS ex-Refund: $0.40 (Est. $0.37) 🟢 🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.62; +100% YoY; incl. refunds 🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $457M; incl. tariff refunds Raises FY26 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $21.7B-$21.8B (Est. $21.91B) 🔴; from $21.5B-$21.75B 🔹 Adj. EBITDA Margin: 7.8%-8.0% (Est. 8.1%) 🔴; from 7.7%-7.9% 🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.15-$2.35 (Est. $2.25) 🟡; from $2.00-$2.20 🔹 Comparable Sales Change: 1.0% to 1.5%; from 0.5% to 1.2% Other Q2 Metrics: 🔹 Comparable Sales: +2.7% 🔹 Go-Forward Business Comps: +2.8% 🔹 Macy's Comps: +1.1% 🔹 Bloomingdale's Comps: +11.3% 🔹 Bluemercury Comps: +6.2% 🔹 Gross Margin: 41.5%; incl. 180 bps refunds Key Updates: 🔸 Tariff refunds: $98M of IEEPA refunds received in Q2 and $18M after quarter end ($116M total); the net benefit was $84M pre-tax, $0.23 per share after tax and 180 bps of gross margin — excluding it, adjusted EPS was $0.40, +14% YoY, and gross margin was up 10 bps; the FY26 guide reinvests the majority of the refunds, with ~$0.05 per share flowing through to adjusted EPS Comments: 🔸 “The investments we're making are driving results across our portfolio, from the continued outperformance of our Reimagine 200 Macy’s stores, to meaningful double-digit growth at Bloomingdale’s and another solid quarter at Bluemercury.”

ZEROBASE WEEKLY 8.10-8.16 ZBT came under pressure this week, trading overall in the $0.085–$0.105 range. It opened near $0.105 on August 10, gradually pulled back through mid-week (dipping toward the mid-$0.08s), and closed the period around $0.083–$0.087. Despite the notable decline of roughly 15–20% from the weekly open, trading volumes remained decent on most sessions and liquidity conditions stayed relatively stable, with bid-ask spreads holding at reasonable levels. Crypto markets traded lower and range-bound this week amid fading post-jobs momentum, mixed ETF flows, regulatory delays, and persistent Middle East supply risks. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization drifted from roughly the $2.21–$2.22T area early in the period toward approximately $2.16T by the weekend, reflecting modest net outflows in risk appetite. Bitcoin opened the week near $64,800–$65,000 on August 10 (with intraday highs above $65,300), then ground lower through mid-week, touching lows near $62,500–$62,800 before stabilizing. It closed the period around $62,900–$63,100, for a net weekly decline of roughly 2.7–3.5% from the August 10 levels. Ethereum moved in a tighter band, starting near $1,900–$1,910, dipping below $1,870, and finishing near $1,870–$1,880 — a weekly loss of approximately 1.5–2%. Derivatives metrics pointed to cautious positioning. Open interest held relatively steady-to-soft (total crypto OI near $117B by weekend), 24-hour liquidations stayed moderate outside of brief volatility spikes, and funding rates on major pairs hovered near neutral to mildly negative, consistent with reduced leverage appetite in thin summer liquidity. Macro and geopolitical developments supplied the main headwinds and occasional relief. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz disruption remained central: negotiations between Iran and Oman on temporary shipping arrangements stayed incomplete, with Tehran continuing to demand compensation, sanction relief, and an end to the U.S. naval blockade. Houthi strikes on Saudi facilities added to supply concerns. Brent crude rose from the mid-$80s early in the week toward the high-$80s (settling near $88.50 by August 16), while WTI climbed into the low-to-mid $80s — a weekly gain of more than 5% for both benchmarks after the prior week’s decline. Higher energy prices reinforced inflation stickiness concerns even as other data softened. July CPI data released on August 12 came in line with expectations and provided limited relief: headline CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month (3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5%), while core CPI rose 0.2% MoM (2.5% YoY). Energy prices continued to ease on a monthly basis but remained elevated annually. The print, following the previous week’s weak nonfarm payrolls (-23,000), supported the view that the Fed could stay on hold longer, yet it failed to catalyze a sustained crypto rally as liquidity remained light and regulatory overhang persisted. U.S. equity markets finished the core trading week (through August 14) mixed. The S&P 500 posted a modest gain of approximately 0.4% (closing near 7,830), the Nasdaq Composite edged higher by roughly 0.1–0.2% (near 26,730), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined about 0.6%. Technology and semiconductor names showed dispersion amid AI-spending scrutiny and oil volatility; overall risk assets consolidated after the prior week’s stronger advance driven by the soft labor report. Institutional flows shifted from the prior week’s strong inflows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded roughly $850–$865 million in net inflows over the preceding five sessions (August 3–7). This week opened with a notable outflow of approximately $145 million on August 10, followed by small positive or negative prints and further net outflows (including roughly -$61 million on August 12, -$131 million on August 13, and -$58 million on August 14), leaving the period net negative for BTC products. Ethereum ETF flows were more mixed, with intermittent modest inflows offsetting earlier redemptions. Regulatory caution added pressure: the SEC cancelled a planned meeting on crypto rules, and the Senate entered recess without advancing the Clarity Act (now eyed for September). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained firmly in Fear territory, fluctuating mostly in the 26–35 range (ending near 34). On-chain data offered a more constructive contrast to the soft price action. Large holders (“strongest hands”) continued to accumulate: the number of wallets holding ≥10,000 BTC reached a six-month high near 90, and addresses in the 10–10,000 BTC cohort added substantial volume (earlier estimates pointed to ~$1.5 billion equivalent accumulation since late July). Whales recorded one of the larger single-day accumulations in recent months (over 46,000 BTC on one notable session), while smaller/micro wallets distributed. Some dormant supply (2010–2017 vintage) moved, though residual non-clustered activity remained elevated relative to July. Exchange inflows from whales early in the week signaled selective distribution readiness, yet the overall rotation toward larger, longer-term holders continued to build support at current levels. In summary, the August 10–16 period delivered a measured pullback and consolidation in spot prices. Soft CPI and lingering hopes for a less restrictive Fed stance were outweighed by fading ETF momentum, regulatory delays, thin liquidity, and elevated energy prices from the unresolved Hormuz disruption. Higher oil is likely to keep near-term inflation sticky, yet the labor-market cooling already underway points to limited room for aggressive further tightening. With on-chain accumulation by large holders providing a floor and ETF flows showing early signs of stabilization potential, the market remains in a cautious consolidation phase within a still-complex macro and geopolitical backdrop.

Eurozone shares -0.5% US futures -0.2%, Nas futures +0.1% Ger 10 yr yld +5bp to 3.39% Oil +1.2% to $92.7..reports of hits on ships in Hormuz & on Saudi Red Sea oil infrastructure Gold -0.6% to $4404 Iron ore +0.1% to $100.45 Bitcoin $79.2k ASX futures -0.1% $A 0.7215 w $US -0.2%

Cool summer, grab a bottle of Coca-Cola🥺 Seedance 2.0 Mini prompt 👇 Referencing the face, hairstyle, and body proportions of image_1 — this exact young Asian woman with shoulder-length black hair with bangs, delicate features, and slender figure must remain 100% identical across all outfit changes. Face never changes. 9:16 vertical, 15 seconds, high-saturation commercial style: photo-realistic character on flat graphic animation backgrounds, red-black-white color palette. [0–1.7s] Pure white studio background. Full-body 35mm shot. Character wears simple grey-black outfit, faces camera, holds a transparent plastic cola bottle filled with deep-brown carbonated liquid, red label, red cap. She leans in and twists the cap open with effort. [1.7–2.2s] Cap pops off with a burst — dense bubbles rush upward, cold mist sprays out. Her face shows delighted surprise. A red flash wipes the frame. [2.2–3.5s] Background instantly transforms: deep crimson flat-design. A giant matte-black cola bottle silhouette dominates center frame. Character shrinks and stands inside the silhouette, tilts head back to drink. Bold red and black geometric shapes slide rapidly behind her. [3.5–4s] A giant condensation-covered cola bottle sweeps horizontally across the full frame at high speed with motion blur — TRANSITION 1. [4–6s] Bottle clears. OUTFIT 1 — sporty sweet: red-black cropped top, black shorts, red cap, black sneakers. Same face. She raises one leg, holds cola bottle, energetic jump pose. Floating props: red headphones, black camera, ice cubes, red bottle caps. [6–8s] Cola bubbles explode across frame — TRANSITION 2. OUTFIT 2 — street casual: black oversized tee with red graphic, black wide shorts, red jacket tied at waist, red-black sneakers. Same face. She spins, lands, turns back to camera and raises cola bottle with cool confidence. [8–10s] Giant red bottle cap spins into frame — TRANSITION 3. OUTFIT 3 — hot athletic: red off-shoulder crop top, black high-waist shorts, red-black wristbands, black ankle boots. Same face. She leaps sideways mid-air, one hand drinking from cola. Floating: skewers, straws, ice cubes, cola bubbles. [10–12s] Dark brown cola liquid splashes across body — TRANSITION 4. OUTFIT 4 — cool summer: black cropped top with red trim, red-black shorts, light summer shoes. Same face. Hair gently blown by air current. She floats sideways, holds cola bottle. Floating: red-black swim ring, sunglasses, walkman, small tote bag. [12–13s] A giant ice-frosted cola bottle rises fast from bottom of frame. Character shrinks, floats beside the bottle. Red-black accessories explode outward in a shockwave. Background: deep red and black diagonal geometric blocks. [13–15s] Cut to product close-up: cola bottle front view, transparent body filled with deep-brown carbonated liquid, dense fine bubbles rising continuously, real condensation droplets coating the glass, red label with clean white 'COLA' text only. Black ice cubes and red bottle cap float around it. Character peeks from behind the bottle, smiling warmly, raises the cola joyfully, and says with accurate lip-sync: '啊——爽！' Camera: fixed frontal composition throughout, 35mm full-body for character shots, 50mm product close-up for final. All outfit transitions use in-frame occlusion only — bottle sweep, bubble burst, cap spin, liquid splash — never direct cut. All action beats hit heavy bass downbeats. Character face, hairstyle, and body proportions are identical in every shot. No subtitles. No music. Sound: bottle pop 'bō', carbonation hiss, ice clink, bubble fizz, bass drum hit on each transition beat, brief whoosh on each change, final Chinese line lip-synced precisely.

Premarket movers Mag 7 names are all lower (Apple -0.1%, Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon -1.3%, Meta -1%, Microsoft -1.1%, Nvidia -1.3%, Tesla -1.2%) Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) rises 4% after Piper Sandler upgraded the biotech company to overweight, optimistic about the prospects for deramiocel, a treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy Charter Communications (CHTR) inches 1% lower after the cable operator said CFO Jessica Fischer will step down in mid October to relocate for another professional opportunity. Duolingo (DUOL) is up 6% after Evercore ISI upgraded the language-learning software company to outperform, noting investor opportunity following severe weakness in the stock, which is down more than 70% off a peak hit in mid-2025. Fervo Energy (FRVO) jumps 13% on a Wall Street Journal report that the geothermal company has signed a deal to sell power to Alphabet’s Google. GoPro (GPRO) soars 76%, with the stock set to extend gains after rallying more than 46% Monday. Kroger (KR) slips 1% after Citi analyst Paul Lejuez cut his price target on the grocer to a Street-low $57 from $61, and adds a downside 30-day catalyst watch on the stock ahead of Kroger’s Sept. 11 earnings report. Medtronic (MDT) gains 4% after the medical device maker boosted its organic revenue forecast for the full year. Micron Technology (MU) dips about 2% after the Taipei-based Liberty Times reported that Micron will deliver its highest incentive pay plan to its Taiwan-based employees in response to a potential strike by its labor union. NIO ADRs (NIO) slip 1% after the carmaker reported vehicle deliveries for August that were largely flat from the previous month. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) rises 2% after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation on the exchange to overweight on growth from prediction markets.

Last wk despite WTI +10% & ylds +2-7 bps across the curve, S&P/Nas/R2K +0.1%/+0.4%/+0.1%. $NVDA acquisition of Hugging Face & $Meta release of Muse Spark 1.3 last wk make both names more attractive into year-end. My view is that LLMs increasingly bifurcate into 90%+ usage of open-source/ open-weight models in the future as companies optimize the right models for the right task. Since the focus on controlling AI expenditures, the Silicon Data token cost has fallen over 50% since late May but the weekly usage of tokens in models across OpenRouter has increased by 3.6x over this same time. In addition, enterprises are increasingly focused on making sure their own proprietary data does not leak out when they use third party closed frontier LLMs. Hugging Face is the premier central collaborative platform, repository, and toolkit for open-source and open-weight AI with over 18 million developers. Nvidia has three customers that accounted for 44% of their revenues over the past six months and their largest customers are increasingly designing their own ASICs and in some cases selling them externally. A more diversified customer base that owns their own AI compute stack instead of renting from the big cloud service providers would help Nvidia with both of these issues. With this acquisition, Nvidia is in an even better position to sell enterprises a complete alternative AI stack (from the model to chips) where the customer will own their own data. Valuation is also compelling. Nvidia trades at a 15x CY27 PE versus their own guidance for 70% revenue growth and the Big 3 public cloud service providers at 21-23x for 15-26% total revenue growth. The S&P trades at 19x for 9% revenue growth for comparison. Nvidia is also up “just”24% versus the Semiconductor Index up 66% following underperformance last year at up 39% versus 42%. As for Meta, the stock is down 7% year-to-date after being up just 13% last year driven largely by concerns that 1) they can only monetize their near doubling in AI capex spend through efficiencies in their own business and 2) they were falling behind in the AI model race. The launch of the Muse Spark 1.3 API last week, catapulted Meta back to near frontier status (Top four in the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index out of 10 models) but with aggressive token pricing (Bottom four in Cost per Task.) Open-weight versions of the Muse Spark lineup are coming soon. This will give the company another way to monetize their aggressive capex plans. This follows Meta's settlement in late August with state AGs on their youth addiction trial which was another overhang on the stock. Trading at 16x CY27 PE for 20% revenue growth is compelling with the settlement and Spark 1.3 launch as catalysts. From a broader market perspective, I recommend caution between now and the US mid-terms for reasons I have fleshed out in prior posts including: 1) Don’t Fight the Fed given I believe a 9/16 hike is likely 2) September -0.5% on avg & up only 48% of the time 3) S&P drawdowns of 10% in lead-up to mid-terms 4) Bipartisan pushback against datacenter expansion 5) Iran dragging out hostilities through US mid-terms

BREAKING: The US personal savings rate fell -0.1 percentage point in June, to 2.7%, the lowest since June 2022. This marks the 5th consecutive monthly decline, bringing the cumulative drop to -1.7 percentage points. This is also the 3rd-lowest monthly reading since April 2008, during the Financial Crisis. To put this into perspective, the personal savings rate averaged ~5.5% between 2014 and 2019. The only period in modern history with similarly low saving rates was 2005-2007, when the rate fluctuated between 1.4% and 3.3%. US households are struggling to save money.

China’s retail sales of consumer goods climbed 1.2% in the first seven months from the same period last year to CNY28.78 trillion (USD4.27 trillion), the NBS said today. Excluding automobiles, the figure advanced 2.7% to CNY26.51 trillion (USD3.93 trillion). Retail sales of consumer goods edged up 0.6% to CNY3.9 trillion (USD578 billion) in July.