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Treasury yields March 2020: 30 year 1% 10 year 0.5% 5 year 0.5% 2 year 0.4% 3 month 0% Today: 30 year 5.4% 10 year 5.1% 5 year 5% 2 year 4.9% 3 month 4.1%
CHOOSE YOUR FIGHTER Warren Buffett vs Stanley Druckenmiller Buffett stepped down as Charman of Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B today. Druckenmiller has never had a losing year in more than 30 years. Here are their full portfolios as of Q2 2026. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - Apple $AAPL: 22% - American Express $AXP: 17% - Google $GOOGL: about 12.6% across both share classes - Coca-Cola $KO: 11% - Bank of America $BAC: 9.2% - Chevron $CVX: 4.7% - Occidental $OXY: 4.3% - Chubb $CB: 3.9% - Moody's $MCO: 3.7% - Kraft Heinz $KHC: 2.6% - DaVita $DVA: 2.1% - Delta $DAL: 1.8% - SiriusXM $SIRI: 1.2% - VeriSign $VRSN: 0.8% - Kroger $KR: 0.7% - Liberty Live $LLYVA: about 0.6% across both share classes - Ally $ALLY: 0.4% - Lennar $LEN: 0.4% - New York Times $NYT: 0.4% - Capital One $COF: 0.2% - Louisiana-Pacific $LPX: 0.1% - Nucor $NUE: 0.1% - Macy's $M: 0.1% - NVR $NVR - Jefferies $JEF - D.R. Horton $DHI DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE - Natera $NTRA: 17% - Insmed $INSM: about 5.7% in shares and calls - Taiwan Semi $TSM: 5.4% - Brazil ETF $EWZ: about 5.1% in shares and calls - Amazon $AMZN: about 4.6% in shares and calls - STMicro $STM: 4.5% - S&P 500 Equal Weight $RSP: about 3.7% in calls and shares - Fox $FOXA: about 2.8% across both share classes - YPF $REPYY: 2.7% - CDW $CDW: about 2.7% in shares and calls - BBB Foods $TBBB: 2.3% - Google $GOOGL: 2.3% - Seagate blockstack:native: 2.3% - United Airlines $UAL: 2.1% - Sea $SE: 2.0% - NewAmsterdam Pharma $NAMS: 2.0% - Russell 2000 ETF $IWM: 1.9% in calls - Sandisk $SNDK: 1.5% - Revolution Medicines $RVMD: 1.4% - S&P 500 ETF: 1.3% in calls - Bitdeer: 1.2% - CRH: 1.1% - Delta: 1.1% - Tesla $TSLA: 1.0% in calls - Fluor: 1.0% - D.R. Horton: 0.9% - Coupang: 0.9% - AMD: 0.8% - Palo Alto Networks: 0.8% - Cleveland-Cliffs: 0.8% - Hut 8: 0.7% - Caris Life Sciences: 0.6% - Argentina ETF: 0.6% - Woodward: 0.5% - Meta: 0.5% in calls - Nuvation Bio: 0.5% - Protagonist Therapeutics: 0.5% - Roku: 0.5% - Cavco: 0.5% - ADMA Biologics: 0.4% - Hyperliquid Strategies: 0.4% - Rambus: 0.4% - Rhythm Pharmaceuticals: 0.4% - Champion Homes: 0.4% - Daktronics: 0.4% - PureCycle: 0.4% - Southern Copper: 0.4% - Linde: 0.4% - Entegris: 0.4% - Teva: 0.4% - Unity: 0.4% - Aeva: 0.4% - Riot Platforms: 0.4% - Qnity Electronics: 0.4% - Equinix: 0.4% - Lam Research: 0.4% - Definium Therapeutics: 0.3% - Belite Bio: 0.3% - 10x Genomics: 0.3% - Wabtec: 0.3% - Eli Lilly: 0.3% - Xenon Pharmaceuticals: 0.3% - Olema Pharmaceuticals: 0.2% - Repligen: 0.2% - Rocket Companies: 0.2% - Baidu: 0.2% - Arm: 0.2% - Carvana: 0.2% - Reddit: 0.2% - Alcoa: 0.2% - Thermo Fisher: 0.2% - Danaher: 0.2% - F5: 0.2% - Vista Energy: 0.2% - Skeena Resources: 0.2% - JBS: 0.1% - Monte Rosa Therapeutics: 0.1% - Relay Therapeutics: 0.1% - DBV Technologies: 0.1% - CCC Intelligent Solutions: 0.1% - UWM Holdings: 0.1% - Navitas Semiconductor: 0.1% - Solstice Advanced Materials: 0.1% - FTAI Aviation: 0.1% - Beam Therapeutics: 0.1% - Aurora Innovation: 0.1% - IREN: 0.1% - Grupo Financiero Galicia: 0.1% - Wave Life Sciences: under 0.1% Both own Google, Delta and D.R. Horton. Neither owns Nvidia $NVDA.
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ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be absolutely ripping to...still less than 0.5% of $HYPE FDV and 1/5 what you guys think Variational point val will TGE at...
Last wk, SPX/Nas/R2K +0.5%/+0.8%/-1.5% w/ oil -4%. But a hawkish Warsh on Friday led to a bear flattening of the yield curve. Despite $NVDA guide of 70% CY27 rev growth vs consensus of 47%, SOX Index -2.3% while software $IGV +5.9% on solid earnings. In general, many AI investors have been bullish on semiconductors and bearish on software on the belief that AI will displace many point solution software companies. This is why the SOX index is up 62% YTD and IGV is still only up 4% YTD versus the S&P +13%. Situational Awareness was the poster child for this type of positioning. But since the unwinding of the Momentum trade which started on 6/22 (I wrote about these concerns on 6/20), IGV has rallied 25% while the SOX Index has declined 22% through 8/28. For perspective, the Morgan Stanley Momentum index (momentum long performance minus momentum short performance) from 6/22-8/28 is down 36% while their more concentrated TMT index is down 54%. But a bullish twist on AI for the software sector introduced recently is that AI agents will access software tools ~10-100x more often than humans. On 8/6, $TEAM, which was in the bucket of software names widely considered at risk of being replaced by AI, rallied 35% the next day in reaction to solid earnings & outlook. Then on 8/13, $WDAY rallied 18% on the news that private equity firm Silverlake might be pursuing an acquisition which I wrote probably put a floor underneath software. Workday was also supposed to be in the AI crosshairs and private equity has higher bars to clear given their use of leverage and holding period than a typical investor. Then on 8/26, $CRM reported solid results, guidance and a deal with Anthropic (in which they also first invested in May of 2023.) The stock was up 23% in reaction the next day. This seemed to be a strong counterpoint to the SaaS-pocalypse worries. This strategic alliance allows users to execute actions natively inside Claude without needing to open traditional software screens. Salesforce also seems to be changing how they charge customers with fees more related to customer use and benefits to their business. Then on 8/27, Workday reported results which were good enough but arguably acquisition prospects drove more of the stock reaction of +6% the next day from the slightly down opening price. Historically, system of record, security and gaming software have been the only three areas I have liked within software. I now wonder whether the fundamental implications of Atlassian, Workday and Salesforce are supportive of the technical reactions in the software stocks as a group as agentic AI continues to ramp. So how do I square this with my concerns that the rapidly escalating amounts spent on AI by corporations has to come from somewhere? Annualized revenue run-rates for Anthropic and OpenAI have ramped from $29B to start the year to $105B just 7 months later. Software spending globally excluding AI was roughly $1 trillion in 2025. But IT services at $1.7 trillion is a bigger category which I believe still has risk. And finally, knowledge worker compensation is an even bigger category where disruption would be even less noticeable at an estimated $35-50 trillion in 2025 or roughly 30% of the global workforce. Looking forward, the deal on Friday for Venezuelan oil fields that hold the largest crude reserves in the world at 17-18% should get us off to a positive start to the week with declining oil prices. But a bit further out: 1) “Don’t Fight the Fed” given I believe a hike is likely on 9/16 because the 10/28 mtg is right before mid-terms, 2) September has the poorest seasonality of all months, 3) there is even worse seasonality than normal during mid-term election years (see prior posts for more detail) and 4) recent bipartisan pushback against datacenter expansion (one of the few things both sides seem to agree on though I believe this is wrong and hope it will change with more education) puts pressure on the AI infrastructure names. As Warren Buffett says, the market has to keep pitching but you do not need to swing.
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France Industrial Production (M/M) Jul: -0.4% (est 0.2%; prev 0.1%; prev R -0.1%) - Industrial Production (Y/Y): -0.5% (est 0.4%; prev -0.1%) - Manufacturing Production (M/M): -0.8% (est 0.4%; prev -1.1%; prev R -1.0%) - Manufacturing Production (Y/Y): -2.0% (prev -1.7%; prev R -1.5%)
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In 2023, more than 5,000 attended the 30th Annual "OWN IT!" Baron Conference at New York's iconic Met Opera House. The 2024, 31st Annual "Building Legacy" Baron Conference on November 15th at The Met… features exceptional executives of SpaceX...MSCI...Arch Capital...and Red Rock Resorts...the Baron Capital team...incredible entertainment...and an ice cream cone served by former ice cream truck driver Ron... Oh yeah...good luck winning one of three awesome Tesla Y door prizes. All expenses, including door prizes...are paid by @BaronCapital...not our clients... Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the investment carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectuses contain this and other information about the Funds. You may obtain them from the Funds’ distributor, Baron Capital, Inc., by calling 1-800-99-BARON or visiting Please read them carefully before investing. Portfolio holdings as a percentage of net assets as of June 30, 2024 for securities mentioned are as follows: Space Exploration Technologies Corporation - Baron Asset Fund (2.9%), Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund (0.9%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (10.3%), Baron Global Advantage Fund (6.1%), Baron Opportunity Fund (2.8%), Baron Partners Fund (13.2%*); Tesla, Inc. - Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund (3.2%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (8.6%), Baron Global Advantage Fund (3.3%), Baron Opportunity Fund (3.5%), Baron Partners Fund (28.9%*), Baron Technology Fund (2.5%); MSCI Inc. - Baron Asset Fund (0.5%), Baron Durable Advantage Fund (2.1%), Baron FinTech Fund (2.5%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (3.1%), Baron Growth Fund (9.8%), Baron Partners Fund (1.8%*); Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Baron Asset Fund (4.8%), Baron Durable Advantage Fund (2.1%), Baron FinTech Fund (3.0%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (6.4%), Baron Growth Fund (12.7%), Baron International Growth Fund (2.8%), Baron Partners Fund (9.5%*); Red Rock Resorts, Inc. - Baron Discovery Fund (1.6%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (3.9%), Baron Growth Fund (1.5%), Baron Partners Fund (1.5%*), Baron Real Estate Fund (1.7%), Baron Small Cap Fund (3.6%). *% of Long Positions. Portfolio holdings are subject to change. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. All expenses associated with this conference are paid by Baron Capital, Inc. No conference expenses are paid by Baron Funds. BAMCO, Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Baron Capital, Inc. is a broker-dealer registered with the SEC and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (FINRA).
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General Mills Q1 2026 Earnings - Adj EPS 75C (est 72C) - Net Sales $4.39B (est $4.35B) - Still Sees FY Organic Net Sales -1.5% To +0.5% (est -0.47%) - Sees FY27 Adj Diluted Earnings $3 To $3.20/SHR - Still Sees FY Adj. Oper Loss Constant FX -8% To -13% - Reaffirms Year Outlook
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US consumers are extremely bullish on stocks: The perceived probability among US consumers that US stock prices will be higher 1-year from now increased +0.5 percentage points in July, to 41.4%, the highest since April 2021. Since March, this percentage has risen +5.1 points, marking the 2nd-highest reading since the 2020 pandemic. By comparison, the April 2020 peak was 51.8%. By age, consumers under 40 are the most optimistic, at 42.0%, the 2nd-highest since September 2024. This is followed by the 40-59 age group, at 41.5%, the highest since January 2025, and consumers over 59, at 41.1%, the highest since September 2025. Bullish sentiment is spreading across all consumer age groups.
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📊 @Solana is the largest network by RWA holder count at 290,353, up 133.5% year-to-date Below is the breakdown by asset class and market share: 1) Stocks: 234.6K (80.8%) 2) Commodities: 27.2K (9.4%) 3) U.S. Treasury Debt: 8.9K (3.1%) 4) Specialty Finance: 8.1K (2.8%) 5) Asset-Backed Credit: 5.6K (1.9%) 6) Non-US Government Debt: 4.3K (1.5%) 7) Real Estate: 1.3K (0.5%) 8) Diversified Credit: 159 (0.1%) 9) Corporate Credit: 71 (0.02%) 10) Active Strategies: 27 (0.01%) 11) Private Equity: 20 (0.01%) 12) Cryptocurrencies: 12 (0.01%)
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i already had an sBTC position on @bitflow now the same trading flow can earn BTC on top Stack Sats by @Stacks is live as well: > 3-month DeFi campaign > 1 BTC distributed each month > 3 BTC in total rewards Bitflow receives 1.5 BTC across the campaign, with 0.5 BTC per month allocated to activity on the sBTC/USDCx and STX/USDCx pairs i entered through The Daily Stack and the trading path is simple > make an eligible swap of at least $25 > no enrollment required > enter that day’s BTC reward since i already have a position, i’m using the recurring order feature to add more sBTC with USDCx over time i can choose the interval, split the allocation across several orders and set an optional price range instead of taking one entry tbh i like the incentives from real trading volume and liquidity around the core BTC and dollar pairs on Stacks i’ll track my execution and rewards throughout the first phase try it here if you will:
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