🇬🇧 England vs Norway 🇳🇴 – All Historical Football Matches 1937: Norway 0-6 England 1938: England 4-0 Norway 1949: Norway 1-4 England 1966: Norway 1-6 England 1980: England 4-0 Norway 1981: Norway 2-1 England 1992: England 1-1 Norway 1993: Norway 2-0 England 1994: England 0-0 Norway 1995: Norway 0-0 England 2012: Norway 0-1 England 2014: England 1-0 Norway England wins: 7 Draws: 3 Norway wins: 2

US consumers are pulling back on spending: US retail sales dropped -0.6% in July, the largest monthly decrease since May 2025, missing expectations of a +0.1% increase. The biggest drop came from non-store retailers, including Amazon, $AMZN, where sales fell -2.2%, the 2nd-largest decline since July 2021. At the same time, motor vehicle and parts dealer sales fell -1.8%. As a result, retail sales excluding auto fell -0.3%, below the expected +0.2% increase. Meanwhile, control-group sales, which feed into the GDP calculation, plunged -0.4%, the largest monthly decline since January 2025. The measure excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores, and gas stations. Americans are becoming more cautious with their spending.

Premarket movers Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +1.3%, Meta +0.7%, Alphabet +0.7%, Amazon +0.6%, Nvidia +0.5%, Apple +0.1%, Microsoft +0.1%) Cryptocurrency-linked stocks are rallying as Bitcoin rises, putting it on track for its best weekly gain in more than two years. Strategy (MSTR) climbs 8%, Coinbase (COIN) rises 5%. Mining stocks are rising as gold is on track for a third weekly gain after the US Treasury’s unexpected ramp-up in buybacks of long-dated government debt underscored concerns about its burden. Newmont (NEM) rises 3%. Flowers Foods (FLO) falls 4% after the maker of Wonder Bread cut its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast for the full year. O-I Glass (OI) rises 5% after Citi upgraded the packaging products company to buy, saying shares appear to be “meaningfully oversold.” OSI Systems (OSIS) falls 13% after the medical device maker’s forecast for fiscal 2027 revenue fell short of the average analyst estimate. Parsons Corp. (PSN) rises 2% after Baird upgraded the IT services company to outperform, saying guidance looks conservatively set. NetEase ADRs (NTES) rise 6% after the company’s core gaming business was seen as resilient and forecast to keep growing steadily. Ross Stores (ROST) climbs 8% after the off-price retailer boosted its earnings per share forecast for the full year.

The cheapest MiCA-regulated crypto exchanges ↓ (bookmark for later) Revolut – 0% / 0.09% OKX – 0.08% / 0.1% Gate – 0.1% / 0.1% Bybit – 0.1% / 0.3% Bitvavo – 0.2% / 0.3% Blockchaincom – 0.2% / 0.4% Bitpanda – 0.3% / 0.3% Kraken – 0.3% / 0.4% Bitstamp – 0.3% / 0.4% Cryptocom – 0.3% / 0.5% Robinhood – 0.5% Bit2Me – 0.5% / 0.6% Coinbase – 0.6% / 1.2% eToro – 1% Swissquote – 1% / 1% Data from @DefiLlama.

Premarket movers Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower with the exception of NVDA which rises 0.6% after Friday's slide (Apple -0.3%, Meta -0.1%, Amazon -0.4%, Alphabet -0.5%, Tesla -0.6%, Microsoft -0.6%) BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) rises 4% after the company said it had entered into binding terms with Ascendis Pharma, resolving the patent and ancillary disputes concerning Ascendis’s Yuviwel. Energy stocks (CVX +2%, XOM +2%) rise with oil as tensions spiked in the Middle East, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the first time in about a month and Tehran claiming a tanker was hit by mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) rises 2% after UBS analyst Alex Stansbury raised the recommendation on to buy from neutral. PG&E (PCG) falls 15% and Edison International (EIX) declines 5.5% as California legislators introduced a bill that would update the state’s wildfire response without shifting liability away from publicly traded utilities. Pinterest (PINS) slips 3% after announcing Chief Financial Officer Julia Brau Donnelly will step down from her role on Oct. 30 after three years with the company. Science Applications (SAIC) rises 8% after the government IT services contractor boosted its revenue guidance for the full year. SLB (SLB) inches 1% higher after agreeing to acquire Kelvion, a firm that provides data center cooling solutions, from investors including Apollo Funds for $3.4 billion in cash.

🇺🇸US DATA RUNS HOT: INFLATION STICKY, DEMAND FIRM INFLATION • Headline PCE MoM: +0.2% vs +0.1% est.; prior -0.1% • Headline PCE YoY: +3.7% vs +3.6% est.; prior +3.7% • Core PCE MoM: +0.2% vs +0.2% est.; prior +0.1% • Core PCE YoY: +3.3% vs +3.3% est.; prior +3.3% GDP • Q2 GDP annualized: +1.5% vs +1.5% est.; prior +1.5% • Personal consumption: +3.4% vs +3.2% est.; prior +3.2% • GDP Price Index: +6.4% vs +6.2% est.; prior +6.2% • Core PCE QoQ: +3.6% vs +3.4% est.; prior +3.4% INCOME & SPENDING • Personal income MoM: +0.4% vs +0.2% est.; prior +0.2% • Personal spending MoM: +0.2% vs +0.1% est.; prior +0.3% • Real personal spending MoM: 0.0% vs 0.0% est.; prior +0.4% DURABLE GOODS • Durable goods orders MoM: +1.1% vs +0.5% est.; prior +0.5% • Durables ex-transportation: +0.4% vs +0.6% est.; prior +0.7% • Core capital goods orders: +0.2% vs +0.7% est.; prior revised to +1.7% • Core capital goods shipments: +1.4% vs +1.0% est.; prior revised to +2.4% BOTTOM LINE: Inflation remains sticky while consumer demand and headline durable goods beat expectations. GDP growth was in line, but stronger price pressures could keep the Fed cautious on rates.

Tech stock pressure pulled U.S. equities lower (SPX -0.1%, NDX -0.6%) amid a risk-off start to a week featuring $NVDA earnings and July PCE inflation Wednesday and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech Friday. Brent crude fell 1.6% to $93/bbl, lowering the 10-year yield to 4.71%; BTC held near $77.3K while gold rose. Chipmakers declined led by SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics in Korea and $MU and $MRVL in the U.S. pre-mkt. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have continued to climb to $364 (+31% y/y) on AI and energy strength, equating the S&P earnings yield to the 10-year treasury yield for the first time since early 2024 and before that the 2000 internet bubble. I remain cautious on $TSLA given declining forward long-term earnings estimates, rising unsupervised AV competition, and an extended valuation.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ For additional detail, please see my daily pre-mkt summary for Subscribers.

🟥 Things I'm looking at today 🟥 Powered by @yeet Subscribe: Crypto higher, ETH ETF inflow streak ends, Broadcom outlook disappoints Crypto * BTC: 78,893 (+2%) | BTC.D: 59.6% (+0.1%) * ETH: 2,429 (+1%) | BNB: 713 (+4%) | SOL: 102 (+3%) * Fear & Greed: 64 | 24h Liq: $286m * BTC ETFs: +$101M | ETH ETFs: -$48M * Top Gainers: MARSCOIN, BR, AKE, USELESS, PONS * Crypto higher, as ETH ETF inflow streak ends * Strategy holds $66b reserves, second to Berkshire * BTC-Nasdaq correlation falls to 33%: Grayscale * BTC downside limited above $76,350: Bitfinex * Average BTC investor in profit at $80K: Schwab * ETH top pick, expect 3-5x move: Hayes * HYPE enters Hashdex US index ETF at 3.4% weight * Multicoin sells HYPE, has sold 75% from peak * PONS ATH, AI coin winner for on-chain stock pairs * Pons launchpad fees ATH, tops all meme chains * Robinhood Chain DEX volume hits ATH $2.67b * Robinhood Chain RWAs top $100m, 2x in 3 days * Hot money rotating out of AI into crypto: CZ * X foiled mass password-reset attack: US AG * CFTC moves to dismiss CME’s perps lawsuit * Kraken parent delays IPO to Q2 2027 * Wyoming taps Chainlink for FRNT reserves * Tokenised equity holders +134% m/m to ATH * Rain exploit drains $1.1m from card users * Sui protocol Full Sail winds down after exploit * Kalshi seeks CFTC nod for first US WTI perp * NJ asks SC to rule on Kalshi sports contract case * Kalshi faces $500K daily fine in Michigan * DOJ seizes $560K in Hamas funding probe * Singapore proposes ban on stablecoin yield * Coinbase launches 10x BTC futures in Canada Macro * NASDAQ: $26,220 (+0.5%) | Gold: $4,430 (+1%) * Stock market fear at two month high * Trump considers declaring Iran war over * US escorts 40 tankers through Hormuz * US destroyed 28 ships in Hormuz on Tuesday * Rename Hormuz the Trump Strait?: Trump * Iran launches new attacks on US bases * Signs of fresh JPY market intervention * BoJ prefers Quarter-Point rate hike * Global bond rout gathers pace on inflation fears * US Private payrolls data weaker than expected * US subprime auto delinquencies rate hits ATH * Gold, Silver now legal tender in Texas * US gets control of over 65b bbl of Venezuela’s oil * Xi to visit White House on Sep 24: Trump * PBOC fixes CNY at strongest since Feb 2023 * BRICS overtakes G7 in economic output * US moves to isolate Nicaragua * Germany nears destroying all ties with us: Putin * Qatar, UAE turn to LNG ship transfers * 10 years jail for NGOs aiding migrants: Greece * DOJ widens beef price probe to 8 retailers AI & Tech * Broadcom slumps, on weaker Q3 outlook * Researchers fear safety disaster ahead of Astra * OpenAI building automated shutdown for rogue AI * 78% odds OpenAI ships Astra today: Polymarket * Trump admin backs OpenAI in NYT copyright suit * OpenAI sued over Tumbler Ridge mass shooting * Altman warns of AI bubble * Google ships Gemini 3.8 Flash, it 'works harder' * Google avoids break-up in ad-tech antitrust case * Anthropic tightens testing, training safeguards * NYSE used Anthropic Glasswing to fix cyber flaws * Claude Commerce Agents goes open source * Meta drops Muse Spark 1.3, claims beats GPT-5.6 * AI token use will not count in reviews: Meta * Microsoft names half its org 'Agents and Infra' * Wonderful raises $550m at $5b, 2x+ in 6 months * AfterQuery becomes YC's fastest-ever unicorn * AI firms doing 'terrible job' on PR: Bessent * NYC bans AI for students until high school * Snowflake surges after market on stellar Q2 * Nvidia now ~8% of S&P 500, tops 4 sectors * Uber is laying off 10% of staff * Uber to launch robotaxis in London @YEET: Crypto's Casino Just passed $3.2B in lifetime volume! gm