OECD Forecasts US 2026 Growth Of 2.2% (Vs 2.0% In June), 2.1% In 2027 (Vs 1.8%) - World 2026 Growth Of 2.9% (Vs 2.8% In June), 3.0% In 2027 (Vs 3.1%) - China 2026 Growth Of 4.5% (Unchanged), 4.2% In 2027 (Vs 4.3%) - Euro Area 2026 Growth Of 1.0% (Vs 0.8% In June), 1.0% In 2027 (Vs 1.2%) - Japan 2026 Growth Of 0.8% (Vs 0.6% In June), 0.7% In 2027 (Vs 0.8%) - UK 2026 Growth Of 1.1% (Vs 0.9% In June), 1.0% In 2027 (Vs 1.1%)

This week's largest unlocks ↓ • Hyperliquid ($HYPE): $797M to be unlocked (4.5% of supply) • Sui ($SUI): $9.7M to be unlocked (0.3% of supply) • EigenCloud (prev. EigenLayer) ($EIGEN): $6.9M to be unlocked (4.1% of supply) • Ethena ($ENA): $6.0M to be unlocked (0.4% of supply) • GoPlus Security ($GPS): $1.6M to be unlocked (2.8% of supply) • ZetaChain ($ZETA): $1.4M to be unlocked (2.9% of supply) • IOTA ($IOTA): $492K to be unlocked (0.3% of supply) • Wormhole ($W): $473K to be unlocked (0.8% of supply) Top-3 account for 99% of the week's total. Data: Tokenomist, Aug 31–Sep 7

CHOOSE YOUR FIGHTER Warren Buffett vs Stanley Druckenmiller Buffett stepped down as Charman of Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B today. Druckenmiller has never had a losing year in more than 30 years. Here are their full portfolios as of Q2 2026. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - Apple $AAPL: 22% - American Express $AXP: 17% - Google $GOOGL: about 12.6% across both share classes - Coca-Cola $KO: 11% - Bank of America $BAC: 9.2% - Chevron $CVX: 4.7% - Occidental $OXY: 4.3% - Chubb $CB: 3.9% - Moody's $MCO: 3.7% - Kraft Heinz $KHC: 2.6% - DaVita $DVA: 2.1% - Delta $DAL: 1.8% - SiriusXM $SIRI: 1.2% - VeriSign $VRSN: 0.8% - Kroger $KR: 0.7% - Liberty Live $LLYVA: about 0.6% across both share classes - Ally $ALLY: 0.4% - Lennar $LEN: 0.4% - New York Times $NYT: 0.4% - Capital One $COF: 0.2% - Louisiana-Pacific $LPX: 0.1% - Nucor $NUE: 0.1% - Macy's $M: 0.1% - NVR $NVR - Jefferies $JEF - D.R. Horton $DHI DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE - Natera $NTRA: 17% - Insmed $INSM: about 5.7% in shares and calls - Taiwan Semi $TSM: 5.4% - Brazil ETF $EWZ: about 5.1% in shares and calls - Amazon $AMZN: about 4.6% in shares and calls - STMicro $STM: 4.5% - S&P 500 Equal Weight $RSP: about 3.7% in calls and shares - Fox $FOXA: about 2.8% across both share classes - YPF $REPYY: 2.7% - CDW $CDW: about 2.7% in shares and calls - BBB Foods $TBBB: 2.3% - Google $GOOGL: 2.3% - Seagate blockstack:native: 2.3% - United Airlines $UAL: 2.1% - Sea $SE: 2.0% - NewAmsterdam Pharma $NAMS: 2.0% - Russell 2000 ETF $IWM: 1.9% in calls - Sandisk $SNDK: 1.5% - Revolution Medicines $RVMD: 1.4% - S&P 500 ETF: 1.3% in calls - Bitdeer: 1.2% - CRH: 1.1% - Delta: 1.1% - Tesla $TSLA: 1.0% in calls - Fluor: 1.0% - D.R. Horton: 0.9% - Coupang: 0.9% - AMD: 0.8% - Palo Alto Networks: 0.8% - Cleveland-Cliffs: 0.8% - Hut 8: 0.7% - Caris Life Sciences: 0.6% - Argentina ETF: 0.6% - Woodward: 0.5% - Meta: 0.5% in calls - Nuvation Bio: 0.5% - Protagonist Therapeutics: 0.5% - Roku: 0.5% - Cavco: 0.5% - ADMA Biologics: 0.4% - Hyperliquid Strategies: 0.4% - Rambus: 0.4% - Rhythm Pharmaceuticals: 0.4% - Champion Homes: 0.4% - Daktronics: 0.4% - PureCycle: 0.4% - Southern Copper: 0.4% - Linde: 0.4% - Entegris: 0.4% - Teva: 0.4% - Unity: 0.4% - Aeva: 0.4% - Riot Platforms: 0.4% - Qnity Electronics: 0.4% - Equinix: 0.4% - Lam Research: 0.4% - Definium Therapeutics: 0.3% - Belite Bio: 0.3% - 10x Genomics: 0.3% - Wabtec: 0.3% - Eli Lilly: 0.3% - Xenon Pharmaceuticals: 0.3% - Olema Pharmaceuticals: 0.2% - Repligen: 0.2% - Rocket Companies: 0.2% - Baidu: 0.2% - Arm: 0.2% - Carvana: 0.2% - Reddit: 0.2% - Alcoa: 0.2% - Thermo Fisher: 0.2% - Danaher: 0.2% - F5: 0.2% - Vista Energy: 0.2% - Skeena Resources: 0.2% - JBS: 0.1% - Monte Rosa Therapeutics: 0.1% - Relay Therapeutics: 0.1% - DBV Technologies: 0.1% - CCC Intelligent Solutions: 0.1% - UWM Holdings: 0.1% - Navitas Semiconductor: 0.1% - Solstice Advanced Materials: 0.1% - FTAI Aviation: 0.1% - Beam Therapeutics: 0.1% - Aurora Innovation: 0.1% - IREN: 0.1% - Grupo Financiero Galicia: 0.1% - Wave Life Sciences: under 0.1% Both own Google, Delta and D.R. Horton. Neither owns Nvidia $NVDA.

World Currencies vs. the U.S. Dollar One-Year Change As of June 30, 2026: 🇨🇴 Colombian peso: +19.2% 🇮🇱 Israeli shekel: +13.2% 🇭🇺 Hungarian forint: +8.9% 🇿🇦 South African rand: +8.1% 🇲🇽 Mexican peso: +7.7% 🇨🇳 Chinese yuan: +5.6% 🇦🇺 Australian dollar: +5.2% 🇧🇷 Brazilian real: +5.2% 🇲🇾 Malaysian ringgit: +3.1% 🇳🇴 Norwegian krone: +1.8% 🇨🇱 Chilean peso: +1.0% 🇪🇬 Egyptian pound: +0.8% 🇭🇰 Hong Kong dollar: +0.1% 🇦🇪 UAE dirham: 0.0% 🇶🇦 Qatari riyal: 0.0% 🇸🇦 Saudi riyal: -0.2% 🇷🇺 Russian ruble: -0.4% 🇨🇿 Czech koruna: -1.1% 🇸🇬 Singapore dollar: -1.7% 🇨🇭 Swiss franc: -1.8% 🇹🇭 Thai baht: -2.3% 🇸🇪 Swedish krona: -2.4% 🇪🇺 Euro: -3.0% 🇩🇰 Danish krone: -3.1% 🇬🇧 Pound sterling: -3.4% 🇨🇦 Canadian dollar: -4.1% 🇵🇱 Polish złoty: -4.2% 🇳🇿 New Zealand dollar: -6.8% 🇹🇼 Taiwan dollar: -8.2% 🇵🇭 Philippine peso: -8.2% 🇮🇩 Indonesian rupiah: -9.3% 🇮🇳 Indian rupee: -9.4% 🇯🇵 Japanese yen: -11.3% 🇰🇷 South Korean won: -12.6% 🇹🇷 Turkish lira: -14.6% 🇦🇷 Argentine peso: -18.9% Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP.

GENERAL MOTORS $GM Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $50.02B (Est. $48.7B) 🟢; +2.9% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $3.70 (Est. $3.63) 🟢; +32.2% YoY 🔹 Adj. EBIT: $4.11B (Est. $4.24B) 🔴; +21.6% YoY 🔹 Adj. EBIT Margin: 8.2%; +1.3 ppts YoY 🔹 Adj. Auto FCF: $5.88B; +40.0% YoY FY26 Guide: 🔹 Adj. EPS: $12.75-$13.75 (Est. $13.41) 🟡 🔹 Adj. EBIT: $14.5B-$15.5B (Est. $14.77B) 🟡 🔹 Adj. Auto FCF: $11.5B-$12.5B; from $9.5B-$11.5B 🔹 Net Income: $8.9B-$9.5B; from $8.4B-$9.8B 🔹 GAAP EPS: $9.72-$10.72; from $8.98-$10.98 🔹 Auto Operating Cash Flow: $17.3B-$20.3B Segment Performance: 🔹 GMNA EBIT-adjusted: $3.59B; +43.4% YoY 🔹 GMNA Margin: 8.7%; +2.5 ppts YoY 🔹 GMI EBIT-adjusted: $28M; -87.7% YoY 🔹 GM Financial EBT-adjusted: $668M; -16.9% YoY 🔹 China Equity Income: $32M; vs $80M LY Other Q3 Metrics: 🔹 GAAP EPS: $3.73; n.m. YoY 🔹 Net Income: $3.34B; n.m. YoY 🔹 Auto Operating Cash Flow: $8.05B; +32.6% YoY Key Updates: 🔹 Adjustments: $0.27 per share before a $0.06 tax effect and $0.23 tax adjustment 🔹 EV strategic realignment: $238M charge 🔹 New Share Repurchase Authorization: $20.0B multi-year 🔹 Quarterly Dividend: $0.18/share, payable December 17, 2026

US labor productivity kept rising in Q1, but more slowly. Output per hour for nonfarm workers increased at a 0.8% annual rate, down from 1.6% in Q4. Compared w/a year earlier, however, productivity was up 2.9%; the biggest gain since 2024. Productivity has been on a strong run since 2023. JPMorgan cautions against attributing too much of this strength to AI, noting it’s still early. Still, ongoing business investment in AI could help sustain the trend. Faster productivity growth may also be helping to contain unit labor costs, which rose just 1.2% YoY; suggesting limited wage-driven inflation pressure.

Premarket movers: Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly lower: Apple (AAPL) slips 1% after after Loop Capital Markets downgraded the stock to hold, citing iPhone shipment reductions (Amazon (AMZN) -0.2%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.4%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.4%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.3%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.7%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.8%, Apple (AAPL) -1%) 3M (MMM) rises 1.4% higher after topping Wall Street’s profit estimates and raising its full-year outlook for the second straight quarter. Alvotech (ALVO) jumps 7.4% after the US Food & Drug Administration approved a new manufacturing process for the drug Simlandi. Arhaus (ARHS) rises 4% after Piper Sandler upgraded the furniture company to overweight, writing that “a positive business inflection appears to be underway.” AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) falls more than 2% after Viasat petitioned the FCC to reject the company's request for additional overseas spectrum authority CoreWeave (CRWV) falls over 3% even after Cathie Wood's ARK bought the dip on Monday; the stock had rallied yesterday after Goldman upgraded it to Buy General Motors (GM) falls 7% after narrowing its full-year profit forecast. Halliburton (HAL) rises 3.7% after the oilfield services company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate as drilling and evaluation revenue was higher than expected. The company also forecast mid-single digit revenue growth for 2027. Hertz (HTZ) climbs 7.1% after Oro Mobility, which is backed by the car rental company, secured an $80 million strategic equity investment from a consortium of investors, including Cohen Private Ventures. MSCI Inc. (MSCI) gains 6.5% after the index provider reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Nebius (NBIS) drops more than 2%, tracking weakness across AI-related stocks NuScale Power (SMR) falls 7.2% after Barclays cut its recommendation on the nuclear reactor company to underweight as it sees risks from a lack of contracts. Rapport Therapeutics’ (RAPP) soars 34% after the drug developer said a mid-stage trial of its experimental therapy for acute bipolar mania met the primary endpoint. Shares have since pared gains to 28%. Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) gains 2.9% after the Financial Times reports that activist hedge fund Starboard Value has built a stake in the Honeywell spinoff, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. 3M (MMM) in focus after signing a deal with Amazon that includes a warrant for 3.2 million shares, vesting up to $6 billion Analyst actions: BlackRock (BLK) raised to Buy at TD Cowen; TKO raised to Buy at Arete; Prologis (PLD) raised to Buy at Freedom Capital; Trex (TREX) raised to Buy at Stifel; Live Nation (LYV) cut to Sell at CFRA; Werner (WERN) cut to Neutral at Baird; nVent (NVT) initiated Overweight at JPMorgan

The dispersion inside the S&P 500 this year has been massive. While 99 stocks are up more than 20%, 63 names are down at least 20%, showing just how selective this market has become. Top movers include: ◾ $SNDK +539.4% ◾ $INTC +230.7% ◾ $AMD +107.9% Meanwhile: ◾ $PLTR -24.0% ◾ $TSLA -6.4% ◾ $ORCL -0.8% The S&P 500 itself? Just +8.2%.

📉 BTC’s Bull Index and Markets flip Bearish following the FED’s Hawkish turn On this day of an FED rate hike, the first since 2023, BTC is sending a fairly negative short-term signal. The Bull Index score has flipped back into a bearish regime. In the space of a week, the indicator went from a bullish regime with a score of 80 to 30, a fairly pessimistic regime. Demand is not showing up, and the profits held by the shortest-term holders are starting to dry up. With this FED move, accompanied by a broadly hawkish tone and still no real guidance, markets are pulling back. A risk-off environment is settling in. The question is how long it will last, and according to the FED, inflation will be the main driver going forward. Over the evening, bitcoin:native pulled back very slightly by 0.42%, while the S&P and Nasdaq fell 0.8%. Logically, the bond market followed the rate hike, with the US2Y printing an incredible 2.9% move and the US10Y at 1.6%. A decision that wasn't entirely clear on every front. It was accompanied by a fairly short press conference from FED Chair Warsh, with direct answers that sometimes only addressed part of the questions asked. For now, the market is responding by demanding an even higher risk premium. Some positions may end up being unwound given the lack of short-term investment prospects. While this tightening of liquidity suggests it will slow growth, consumption, and therefore inflation, it could also have an unintended effect. Some companies will be forced to raise the price of their products due to higher credit and investment costs, at a time when they were already struggling with rising energy prices from ongoing conflicts, not to mention tariffs. In short, a decision which doesn’t have unanimous support among economists, and one that won't be without short-term consequences.

Last wk, oil fell 1% w/ lower than expected JOLTS, PCE & NFP. But bonds sold off even more driving 10/30yr ylds to 2002 levels. Equity mkts though were flattish driven by AI infrastructure w/ SOX +3.7%. Breadth worsened to just 25% of the S&P above the 50dma. The market action on Friday bothered me. Non-farm payrolls came in at 29K vs 90K expected. Bonds initially rallied from oversold levels at the open but ended the day down across the curve from the 3-month to 30 year driving yields higher. The dollar did close lower by $0.16 on Friday but it was still up $0.96 during the week. The USD has surged by over $3 in less than a month and broke above $102 on Thursday. As I wrote about in my post last Sunday, I am concerned that the Fed is raising, while inflation has remained higher than target with oil prices remaining high. There have been five episodes of ~20%-50% S&P sell-offs since the early 1970s on this combination. I can now add to that list of concerns a sovereign debt crisis like in 2010 or an LTCM event like in 1998 driven by the combination of a strengthening US dollar and global bond market sell-off. On the positive side, the AI infrastructure trade added more demand drivers last week. OpenAI introduced their Muse by $META competitor called Dots. $GOOGL previewed their new LLM model Argon that ranks higher than Anthropic and OpenAI on most benchmarks. At the company level, $NVDA, sounded great during their marketing in NYC. The stock trades at a 15x CY27 PE for guided 70% revenue growth which I think could be revised higher when they report results in mid-November. To me, Nvidia is the best risk adjusted AI trade in the market now that Meta gained 27% in September. In this vein, while the SOX Index is down 10% from 6/22 which was the peak of the momentum trade, Nvidia is up 12%. On the negative side, I have been watching the Ramp Index of total token spend by businesses for some time to make sure that token growth is outpacing the ASP decline. But after increasing by 9.1x year-to-date through August 2nd, it has been roughly flat to down since then. There has been a 11% combined decline in Anthropic plus OpenAI spend from 8/2-9/27. Meanwhile on a token basis, there was a 11x year-to-date increase through August 2nd with a further 28% increase from Anthropic plus OpenAI since then. Is this the impact of open-weight model pricing? Finally, the current bi-partisan (amazing they agree on anything) pushback on datacenters could get worse after November 3rd mid-terms if there is a blue wave which is what the current polling data leans towards. On July 29th, I turned bullish again: “In summary, my view is that we could have seen at least a short-term bottom today with a strong rally ahead of us in the sectors most caught in the latest speedbump.” On August 23rd, I started to get more cautious again on the overall market with my post, James Carville: “as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” But since then, despite a 54 bps surge in 10yr bond yields, the Fed resuming hiking after 3 years, a 3.2% increase in the USD, the equal-weighted S&P down 5.4% and breadth returning to levels last seen in March, the overall S&P has gained 0.6%. In summary, I feel like either the bond market (and now the currency markets) are not priced correctly or the stock market isn’t. As a result, I believe in extra prudence. That means being more selective (such as AI infrastructure), having smaller position sizes and a greater than normal amount of cash. Maybe this is the new normal for bond yields vs the stock market PE, but that is not my base case. Best of luck in the week ahead.