An overall thrilling and encouraging 2025-26 season for the Charlotte Hornets came to an abrupt end in Friday’s final Play-In game, as their offense was never able to get going in a 121-90 road loss to the Orlando Magic. 📝

OFFICIAL: Bitcoin's MVRV momentum oscillator just printed positive for the first time since October 9, 2025. That is 329 consecutive days underwater. The longest stretch since the 2022 bear. In the modern era this exact setup has appeared three times: a run of 329+ straight days below zero, then a green flip above zero. July 2015. April 2019. January 2023. Here is what came next. 3 months: -21%, +121%, +23% → median +23% 6 months: +40%, +58%, +24% → median +40% 9 months: +37%, +57%, +45% → median +45% 12 months: +114%, +39%, +82% → median +82% 18 months: +160%, +105%, +181% → median +160% 24 months: +669%, +978%, +337% → median +669% Applied to today's $80,000 print, the median path implies: 3 months: $98,533 6 months: $112,021 9 months: $116,358 12 months: $145,894 18 months: $208,010 24 months: $615,167 Three observations, so treat the tails with respect. The 24-month mark lands inside a cycle top every single time, which is precisely where you would expect it to land. The durable read is simpler than the price targets. Every one of those flips left Bitcoin higher a year later, and the worst 12-month outcome was +39%. The oscillator spent 329 days telling you the market was exhausted. It just changed its mind:

US consumer confidence is declining: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell -0.8 points in August, to 89.4, its lowest since January. This also marks its 2nd-lowest level since April 2025. This comes as the Expectations Index dropped -5.8 points, to 68.2, its lowest since January. The decline reflects growing pessimism about future job and income prospects, as well as less optimism about future business conditions. This report also highlights elevated gasoline prices, broader cost-of-living pressures, and a slowdown in hiring as key factors weighing on American households this month. Meanwhile, the Present Situation Index rose +6.8 points, to 121.2, its highest since May, after 3 consecutive monthly declines, somewhat offsetting the overall decline in the Consumer Confidence Index. Americans are worried about the economy.

Employment in the US financial industry is going through a prolonged downturn: The financial industry shed -14,000 jobs in July, to 9.09 million, the lowest since July 2022. This marks the 5th consecutive monthly decline, totaling -59,000. Since May 2025, financial industry payrolls have dropped -121,000, posting the largest drawdown since the 2020 pandemic. Excluding the pandemic, this is the biggest employment contraction in the sector since the 2008 Financial Crisis. The decline comes as financial firms accelerate AI adoption, aiming to boost productivity and reduce labor costs across the industry. AI is reshaping the future of employment in finance.

Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains. I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments. Both have been kinda working on it for awhile. - Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links. - Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now). Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance: (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw. (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial) There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form. For more upstream beneficaries: -> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar. The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement. Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023) -> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them. TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation) Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Nvidia $NVDA and Palantir $PLTR expanded their AI partnership, building a new stack that combines Palantir’s sovereign AI platform with Nvidia’s custom Nemotron open models. The technology is being deployed first across Nvidia’s own supply chain, using AI to capture operational intelligence and accelerate the process from “wafer to first token.” Other companies will be able to deploy the same architecture across their own supply chains, either in the cloud or on-prem. The partnership, first announced in October 2025, has continued compounding into new verticals, use cases, and sovereign AI deployments built around one core idea: enterprises and governments want to own, control, and make sense of their own data. Palantir also hosted its 11th AIPCon today, where partners showcased how they are using Ontology, Foundry, AIP, and Sovereign AI to solve complex operational problems. 2. U.S. PPI came in slightly hotter than expected, rising 5.4% YoY versus 5.3% expected, while monthly PPI rose 0.4%, in line with estimates. Core PPI was 4.6% YoY, matching expectations, while core monthly PPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% estimate. Initial jobless claims came in at 206K versus 205K expected, showing labor-market claims remain broadly steady even as producer inflation stays elevated. 3. Microsoft $MSFT plans to triple its global data center capacity, expanding from roughly 12 GW today to more than 38 GW by 2032, according to Bloomberg. That would add about 26 GW of capacity, with AI-specific compute expected to grow from around 2 GW today to roughly one-third of total capacity by 2032, or about 13 GW. The target excludes compute rented from neoclouds like CoreWeave. The buildout comes after capacity shortages forced Microsoft to restrict some cloud subscriptions and turn away AI and cloud demand. Microsoft spent $145B in capex last fiscal year and has $329B in future data center lease commitments. 4. Oracle $ORCL delivered more than 300,000 GPUs to AI cloud customers since the end of Q4, nearly tripling the capacity delivered in Q4 FY26. The company’s RPO surged by $209B YoY to $664B after booking more than $30B of additional AI cloud contracts in Q1. Q1 revenue came in at $19.3B versus $19.14B expected, up 30% YoY, while adjusted EPS was $1.92 versus $1.74 expected, also up 30% YoY. Cloud revenue reached $11.6B, up 62% YoY, led by cloud infrastructure revenue of $7.4B, up 121% YoY. Oracle also guided FY revenue to at least $90B and adjusted EPS to $8.10, while disclosing $28.5B of capex, -$5.4B of free cash flow, and a $20B ATM equity program. 5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $AAPL with 2.8M contracts, $NVDA with 2.3M contracts, $TSLA with 1.6M contracts, $SPCX with 1.2M contracts, $MU with 769K contracts, $META with 750K contracts, $ORCL with 733K contracts, $INTC with 628K contracts, $GOOGL with 475K contracts, and $AMZN with 409K contracts. 6. Adobe $ADBE reported Q3’26 revenue of $6.8B versus $6.69B expected, up 13% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $6.13 versus $6.09 expected, up 15% YoY. ARR reached $27.5B, while RPO came in at $22.2B and AI-first ARR growth was 150%+. Adobe also raised its FY26 guide, now expecting revenue of $26.58B-$26.63B and EPS of $24.45-$24.50, both ahead of estimates. Segment strength remained broad, with Customer Groups revenue at $6.6B, up 14% YoY, and Creative & Marketing Professionals revenue at $4.7B, up 13% YoY. The company also crossed 1B+ monthly active users, calling it a defining moment for Adobe. 7. Uber $UBER CEO Dara Khosrowshahi bought 141K shares for about $10M at an average price of $70.96. The purchase marks Dara’s first open-market buy of Uber stock since May 2022, when he bought 200K shares at roughly $26.73. A $10M insider buy from the CEO is a notable confidence signal as investors continue watching Uber’s growth, margin expansion, buybacks, and long-term autonomous vehicle strategy. 8. Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang says cybersecurity is likely AI’s next major market, as AI-generated code accelerates both software development and the vulnerabilities that come with it. Huang said rapidly evolving threats should drive more demand for AI-powered security and automated defenses, creating another major growth vertical for the technology. He also pushed back on the idea that Nvidia’s AI financing is “circular,” saying, “We put a little bit of money in and a lot of money comes back. We put in 1 and 100 comes back in.” Huang added that the financing only happens because the off-take is already there: “That off-take is $100B. It’s lined-up contracts. It is real stuff.” He said Nvidia knows where the demand is coming from, understands the quality of that demand, and that its financing is only a “very small part” of these projects. 9. SpaceX $SPCX CFO Bret Johnsen said the company signed another AI compute hosting deal that will generate $1.11B of revenue per month, or $13.3B annually, starting December 1, 2026. “Earlier this month, we closed another hosting deal. By the end of this year, with annualizing our December number, we're on track to hit $100B of ARR,” Johnsen said at Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia and Technology Conference. The update highlights how quickly SpaceX’s AI compute business is scaling into one of the largest infrastructure revenue stories in the market. 10. GameStop $GME CEO and Chairman Ryan Cohen bought 1M shares at an average price of $20.38, a purchase worth roughly $20.4M. His Form 4 shows 39.35M shares directly owned, while a new 13D reports 43.1M shares beneficially owned, equal to an 8.5% stake. The buy adds another insider-confidence signal at a time when investors are watching how Cohen plans to deploy GameStop’s balance sheet and reshape the company’s long-term strategy. 11. Robinhood $HOOD ended August with 28.6M funded customers, up 7% YoY, while total platform assets reached $383.7B, up 8% MoM and 26% YoY. Net deposits were $4.0B. Trading activity stayed strong, with equities at $335.4B up 68% YoY, options at 292.5M contracts up 50% YoY, crypto at $17.5B up 61% MoM but down 38% YoY, and event contracts at 4.7B, down 23% MoM but up 15x YoY. Interest-earning assets also continued scaling, with margin balances at $21.5B up 72% YoY, cash and deposits at $19.6B up 37% YoY, and cash sweep at $31.2B up 7% MoM. Robinhood also expanded the platform with agentic options and crypto trading, Robinhood Earn, Smart Income, UK crypto trading, 190+ stock tokens on Robinhood Chain, and additional Cortex and IPO Access features for RIAs. 12. Saudi oil output fell to its lowest level since 1990, as Saudi Arabia told OPEC its production declined again. At the same time, OPEC cut its 2026 global oil-demand growth forecast to 380K bpd from 580K bpd, while raising its 2027 demand-growth outlook to 2.36M bpd from 2.16M bpd, signaling a potential rebound next year. OPEC+ crude production averaged 38.05M bpd in August, up roughly 300K bpd from July. The backdrop is getting more complicated for markets, with oil pushing past $100/barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.9%. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Nvidia $NVDA is backing OpenAI’s Ohio AI campus with a $1.5B investment in SB Energy and support for an initial 4.25GW of AI infrastructure at the PORTS-Pike campus. The project includes an option to expand to the full 8GW. SB Energy will build and operate the site under a 20-year OpenAI lease, with capacity coming online in phases starting in 2028. SB Energy and SoftBank also plan at least 10GW of new power generation and $4.2B of regional grid investment tied to the buildout. 2. Anthropic’s revenue run rate has reportedly surged ahead of its IPO, rising to more than $65B in July 2026 from $47B in May and $9B at the end of 2025. The company also posted over $11.5B in preliminary revenue for its latest completed quarter, up from $787M a year ago, while generating positive adjusted operating income. Anthropic has confidentially filed to go public and could debut on Wall Street as soon as this fall. 3. U.S. interest expense on the national debt has reached a record $1.4 trillion over the last 12 months, with debt-servicing costs nearly tripling since 2020. If rates stay near current levels, interest payments are projected to rise to $1.7 trillion by November 2028, putting them on pace to overtake Social Security as the government’s largest expense for the first time. The move comes as the 30-year yield hits its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year Treasury yield has crossed 4.7%. 4. Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel says the $SPY S&P 500 could reach 9,000 over the next 12 months, while maintaining a 7,750 base-case target. He argues the usual bull-market killers — recession, sharply higher long-term yields, and extreme investor chasing — still have not shown up. At the same time, 121 S&P 500 stocks now have negative beta to the index, the highest number since the 2000–2001 dot-com unwind, highlighting how unusual market internals have become. 5. Fabrinet $FN reported Q4’26 revenue of $1.32B, beating estimates of $1.27B and up 45% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $4.10 versus $3.82 expected, up 55% YoY, while operating income was $134.25M and net income reached $139.3M. For Q1, Fabrinet guided revenue to $1.38B–$1.43B, ahead of estimates of $1.32B, with adjusted EPS of $4.10–$4.25 versus $3.96 expected. Management said the company delivered record quarterly revenue above its guidance range and remains optimistic about the strength of the business and durability of its growth trends. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.8M contracts, $TSLA with 2.1M contracts, $MU with 1.3M contracts, $SPCX with 1.1M contracts, $AAPL with 1.0M contracts, $AMZN with 980K contracts, $META with 964K contracts, $MSFT with 849K contracts, $INTC with 751K contracts, and $AMD with 572K contracts. 7. AI video startup Higgsfield raised a $400M Series B at a $5.4B valuation, with investors including Goldman Sachs, Intel, and DST Global. The 2-year-old company’s annualized revenue reached $700M in August, up from just $20M a year ago, while its user base has grown to more than 30M across 238 countries and territories. Most revenue now comes from businesses using Higgsfield’s AI tools to create marketing content. 8. Tesla $TSLA is reportedly preparing to launch its purpose-built Cybercab in Austin as soon as this month, according to The Information. The two-seat robotaxi has no steering wheel or pedals, with Tesla planning to start with employee rides on public roads before adding Cybercabs to its Austin Robotaxi service days later. Tesla began Cybercab production in Texas last month and is continuing testing while training local first responders ahead of the rollout. 9. Uber $UBER is investing in Zipline as the companies expand drone delivery for Uber Eats. The goal is to reach 1M drone deliveries per day by the end of 2029, with Uber expecting drones to enable faster deliveries over longer distances. The company sees drone delivery becoming a meaningful growth driver for Eats as it pushes deeper into autonomous logistics. 10. China’s credit data weakened sharply in July, with net new loans falling by $50.4B, only the third monthly decline this century and more than 3x worse than expected. Lending to the real economy was even weaker, with net repayments of $87.5B, the largest monthly drop in records going back to 2002. While aggregate financing still rose by $207.7B, nearly all of the increase came from $192.9B in government bond issuance rather than private-sector borrowing, pointing to soft corporate investment, weak household demand, and continued pressure in property. 11. Morgan Stanley sees Amazon $AMZN with a bull-case path to $500/share by year-end 2027, driven by AWS potentially scaling toward $1T in annual revenue over the next 8–10 years. Analyst Brian Nowak says that scenario could support roughly $500B of company-wide EBIT, while the firm’s base-case price target remains $335. Morgan Stanley argues Amazon’s $1T AWS vision reinforces the size and ROIC of the AI infrastructure opportunity, with AWS currently around $170B annualized and management seeing AI margins and returns tracking similarly, or even slightly ahead, of where core AWS was at the same stage. The key constraint remains compute capacity, with Morgan Stanley estimating Amazon can bring on 6–8GW of compute capacity in 2026/2027 and potentially add around 8GW per year going forward if execution continues at pace. 12. UBS expects Nvidia $NVDA to beat FQ2 revenue estimates by roughly $3B–$4B, with revenue reaching around $94B–$95B. For FQ3, UBS sees guidance in the $107B–$108B range and believes revenue could ultimately exceed $110B. Analyst Timothy Arcuri says Blackwell demand remains stable, while Rubin units are starting to layer in ahead of a bigger FQ4 step-up as Rubin sell-in accelerates toward roughly 500,000 GPU units per month and Blackwell begins winding down. UBS argues the numbers matter more than the AI infrastructure narrative, and expects investors to gain more confidence in a path toward $15+ EPS in C2027 and $20 EPS in C2028. The firm also says memory-driven capex inflation means compute supply is still falling short of demand, which could support another major backlog step-up on the earnings call. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Gonna share my 2026 hedging thesis (long tweet warning) I call it: how to get paid even if crypto bleeds and tech beta starts vomiting into year end. Strictly my personal opinion. All info below are based on PUBLIC sources. Not financial advice, DYOR With crypto potentially facing another 20-40% drawdown into year-end, I’m increasingly convinced that select oil and tanker equities are one of the cleaner hedges right now. AND NO, this isn't another tweet about gambling long or short on crude. The play is shareholder yield: dividends, supplemental dividends, and buybacks, backed by strong free cash flow, manageable leverage, and real asset exposure. Sized right, the basket could return 20-30% cash this year. My thesis is not “which oil stock does 2x or 5x.” It’s defensive: these companies are generating exceptional cash in the current freight and energy setup. Many run with low single-digit net debt to EBITDA, and select names can deliver double-digit shareholder yield through 2026 if rates stay firm. That’s real cash flow while crypto chops, and honestly I’d rather have that than be all-in into tech growth names that offer zero yield buffer when risk assets correct. Buying now can still qualify you for upcoming quarterly dividends, but you need to own shares before the official ex-date. Make sure you check share buyback policies too, because that’s where the real combo comes from: dividends + buybacks + potential share price gains. ALSO AN IMPORTANT TAX NOTE everyone should know: > US taxpayers: want the lower qualified-dividend tax rate instead of getting cooked at ordinary income rates? Usually you need to hold shares unhedged for 61+ days within the 121-day window around the ex-date. > Non-US investors: normal US dividends can get hit with a 30% withholding tax slap. BUT many tanker names are foreign-domiciled, so the tax haircut can be much lighter. Don’t be lazy though, check domicile, broker, and local tax before celebrating. The near-term dividend window is worth watching, but I’m separating confirmed declarations from forecasted ex-dates. Confirmed/recent shareholder-return updates: > ASC announced on april 29 (literally yesterday) that it is doubling its payout ratio to two-thirds of adjusted earnings, effective Q1 2026. Q1 MR spot TCE was around 33.7k/day, and Q2-to-date was around 50k/day. Dividend amount/date still needs official declaration. > Var Energi (OSL:VAR/VARRY) has a confirmed 300M Q1 2026 distribution payable June 12, with another 300M guided for Q2. > Eni (E/ENI.MI) confirmed a 2026 dividend of €1.10/share and raised its buyback plan by about 90% to €2.8B. > TTE raised its first 2026 interim dividend by 5.9% to €0.90/share and doubled Q2 buybacks to $1.5B. Not a May/June capture name, but good shareholder-return ballast. For the tanker watchlist: > DHT has one of the cleanest payout formulas: 100% of ordinary net income as quarterly cash dividends. Q1 payout/date still needs declaration. > TRMD’s last official distribution was $0.70/share. Any May dates floating around are watchlist inputs until TORM officially declares. > FRO paid $1.03/share for Q4, and Q1 looks strong with VLCC days booked around 107.1k/day. But the next dividend is still pending. > INSW’s most recent payout was $2.15/share combined ($0.12 regular + $2.03 supplemental) for Q4 2025. Next payout depends on Q1 results. > HAFN (product/chemical tankers) raised its latest quarterly dividend to $0.1762/share and is seeking a new 10% buyback mandate at the 2026 AGM. Next payout pending. > STNG is more buyback + quality product tanker exposure than a huge dividend-capture name. > NAT has visible variable yield, but I’d treat it as higher risk. The basket has 4 buckets: Variable/formula-based tanker payouts: ASC, DHT, TRMD, HAFN, FRO, INSW, NAT (highest dividend torque in the basket, but also the most variable) Product tanker buyback discipline: STNG (still shipping exposure, but more buyback + quality operator than huge dividend capture) Big energy shareholder-return ballast: SU, TTE, E/ENI.MI, CNQ, REPYY/REP.MC, OSL:VAR/VARRY (less sexy, but more grown-up hedge: dividends, buybacks, scale, and balance sheet durability) Buyback/growth oil names: VIST, ATH. TO (not dividend names, but buybacks can still create shareholder yield without sending you a cash dividend) see the table below for the full visual overview with qualification/timing notes on every name (including higher-risk examples like PBR) IMPORTANT: this is not a free dividend glitch. Stocks often adjust down around the ex-date, sometimes more than the dividend itself. variable dividends can disappear if rates collapse. Buybacks only matter if management buys at sane prices. So, the setup I like: own cash-return machines while the market is still underpricing how long energy cash flow can stay strong. Why this hedge over the usual alternatives: > tech stocks: still risk-on beta, no yield buffer > bonds: help in recession, messy if inflation/oil risk stays sticky > cash: safe but real returns are unexciting > long dated puts: clean hedge, expensive theta bleed if timing is wrong The tanker angle is different because strong Q1/Q2 cash flow can come back as dividends, supplemental dividends and buybacks. (not fixed, but in the right rate environment, cash returns fast) Even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, the system doesn't reset overnight: > inventories still need to rebuild > refined products can stay tight > trade routes can stay inefficient > Q1 cash flow already happened > Q2 rates are the next thing to watch Crypto for asymmetric growth, oil-linked yield for cash flow ballast. I don't need every hedge to 5x, sometimes the boring trade just keeps paying you while crypto does whatever crypto does.

⚡ Top 10 Countries by Electricity Demand (2025) Here’s who’s using the most power, both total and per person: 1. China 🇨🇳 10,573 TWh total 7.5 MWh per capita 2. United States 🇺🇸 4,536 TWh | 13.1 MWh per capita 3. India 🇮🇳 2,083 TWh | 1.4 MWh per capita 4. Russia 🇷🇺 1,176 TWh | 8.2 MWh per capita 5. Japan 🇯🇵 1,030 TWh | 8.4 MWh per capita 6. Brazil 🇧🇷 762 TWh | 3.6 MWh per capita 7. Canada 🇨🇦 646 TWh | 16.1 MWh per capita (highest per person) 8. South Korea 🇰🇷 625 TWh | 12.1 MWh per capita 9. Germany 🇩🇪 520 TWh | 6.2 MWh per capita 10. France 🇫🇷 477 TWh | 7.2 MWh per capita Data: Ember (as of April 2026)

🍔 Minutes of Work to Afford a Big Mac (2026) 🇨🇭 Switzerland: 7.3 min 🇺🇸 United States: 10.3 min 🇦🇺 Australia: 10.5 min 🇩🇰 Denmark: 10.7 min 🇯🇵 Japan: 12.1 min 🇳🇴 Norway: 12.1 min 🇳🇿 New Zealand: 12.4 min 🇨🇦 Canada: 13.1 min 🇸🇪 Sweden: 13.6 min 🇰🇷 South Korea: 14.0 min 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: 14.0 min 🇮🇱 Israel: 15.6 min 🇨🇿 Czechia: 24.4 min 🇭🇺 Hungary: 30.9 min 🇵🇱 Poland: 31.0 min 🇲🇽 Mexico: 62.6 min Sources: The Economist Big Mac Index (Jul 2026); OECD 2025 gross average wage, hours worked, net tax rate (single, no children, average wage), via Eco3min Research, September 2026. Work-time = Big Mac price ÷ net hourly wage [gross × (1 - net tax rate) ÷ annual hours], rounded.