We have comprehensive intelligence reports on Russia’s plans for the fall. Putin is preparing the conditions for expanding mobilization. His casualty figures speak for themselves. In less than seven months this year, 221,000 people have joined the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces. During the same period, Russian casualties have amounted to nearly 225,500, among them 131,000 killed and almost 93,000 wounded. A significant share of those wounds are severe, as frontline medical care in Russia is catastrophically poor.
Putin is preparing to simply send more Russians to war. He disguises it with different words and signals, but that is what he is preparing to do. It is crucial that, together with our partners, we exert enough pressure on Russia so that the idea of ending this aggression becomes the dominant one – the idea of peace, not of another Russian mobilization.
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Japanese individual investors are buying the dip at a record pace:
Retail investors purchased +$5.9 billion of Japanese equities in the week ended June 26th, the largest weekly total on record.
At the same time, foreign funds sold -$7.7 billion, the largest weekly outflow since March.
This follows -$6.0 billion in sales by retail in the prior 2 weeks.
Stocks linked to AI and semiconductors were hit hardest last week, with SoftBank, Kioxia, and Furukawa Electric each falling at least -12% during the week.
Despite the pullback, the Nikkei 225 surged +37% in Q2 2026, its best quarterly performance on record, fueled by AI-related names.
Retail dip buying has become a global trend.
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Strive can add a huge chunk to their Bitcoin hoard before the daily dividends even begin.
SATA is already doing an estimated 225 BTC/day through ATM issuance on Friday.
Volume jumped 25% that same day, from 434,957 to 543,741.
If that same increase linearly ramps into the ex-div window, Strive could acquire roughly 2,300 more BTC from SATA alone.
No ASST issuance.
Just the 13% daily-dividend preferred security quietly turning yield goblins into Bitcoin acquisition drones.
At that pace, Strive’s treasury goes from 15,009 BTC to ~17,300 BTC, a 15%+ BTC stack increase before the market even understands what daily dividends are gonna do.
We'll see what actually happens... but I suspect the market will pile in to anticipate the daily dividends.
If Bitcoin goes up in the next month you will see a huge move in ASST. Adding outstanding SATA = LATENT AMPLIFIED MOVE... just gotta wait for Bitcoin to do what it always does.
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BREAKING: Tesla is leading Germany's new EV subsidy program. 🇩🇪
• Tesla ranks #
1# among all individual brands for subsidy approvals.
• Holds a 74% lead over second-place Škoda.
• Trails Stellantis by just 192 approvals, despite Stellantis combining seven brands.
• Q2 registrations reached 16,028, more than four times higher year over year.
• June registrations surged 318% to 7,768.
• First-half registrations climbed to 28,857, up 225%.
• Model Y was Germany's best-selling EV in June.
Another strong quarter as Tesla continues gaining momentum in Europe's largest automotive market.
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Merkle3s Weekly Recap:
Rising Treasury yields continue to pressure risk assets as BTC ETFs post a record $4.06B monthly outflow; USDT surpasses ETH to become the second-largest crypto asset; Morgan Stanley files for ETH/SOL spot ETFs; CLARITY Act clears the Senate Banking Committee — regulatory framework comes into focus
1️⃣ Macro: DXY Hits One-Year High, Treasuries Under Pressure, Inflation Rebounds
➡️ The US Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to ~101, a one-year high, closing above its 100-week moving average for the first time since February 2025
➡️ Long-end Treasury yields continue to push higher (10Y approaching 4.5%), as Fed rate-cut expectations narrow (50–70% probability of a hike priced in for year-end). Rising Nikkei 225 volatility and unusual swings in Korean equities signal tightening global liquidity conditions
➡️ Near-term impact: persistent DXY strength creates a classic headwind for BTC and crypto, as capital rotates into dollars and Treasuries — further tightening crypto market liquidity
2️⃣ BTC in Deep Bear Territory: Record ETF Outflows, Fear Index Bottoms Out
➡️ sits at roughly $60,000, down ~52% from its October 2025 ATH (~$126,000). The Fear & Greed Index dropped as low as 12 (Extreme Fear) — the lowest reading of the current cycle
➡️ US spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately $4.06B in net outflows in June, a record monthly high (previous record: $3.56B in February 2025). Seven consecutive weeks of net redemptions, with a single-week peak of ~$1.8B. BlackRock IBIT saw ~$2.1B in outflows, Grayscale GBTC ~$1.2B
➡️ fell to roughly $1,550. Tether $USDT market cap broke through $186B, surpassing ETH (~$185B) for the first time to become the second-largest crypto asset. This marks the first time a stablecoin has overtaken ETH — a reflection of capital consolidating into on-chain dollars during risk-off periods
3️⃣ US Semiconductor: Buy the Rumor, Sell the News — Antitrust Suit Resurfaces
➡️ Micron $MU reported FY26 Q3 earnings on June 24 that massively beat expectations: revenue of $41.46B (vs. ~$35.9B expected), adjusted EPS of $25.11 (vs. ~$20.50), gross margins at ~85%. Q4 guidance was equally strong (revenue ~$50B, EPS ~$31). AI-driven HBM memory demand continues to surge, with 2026 capacity fully sold out and some analysts raising long-term price targets to $1,870–$2,000
➡️ But it was a classic sell the news — shares spiked 15% after hours, then reversed entirely over the following sessions, at one point plunging ~8% intraday (erasing ~$80B in market cap). Compounding the sell-off: a June 25 antitrust class-action lawsuit alleging the three memory giants restricted consumer DRAM capacity, diverted production to HBM, and artificially inflated prices by ~700%
➡️ The core tension: the AI memory supercycle vs. the AI tax on consumer memory pricing. Elevated semiconductor leverage and crowded retail positioning remain unresolved
4️⃣ Morgan Stanley Files for ETH/SOL Spot ETF — Competition Shifts to Fee Wars
➡️ Morgan Stanley filed S-1 registrations for ETH and SOL spot ETFs on June 23, with an annual fee of just 0.14% — undercutting BlackRock (0.25%) and Bitwise (0.20%). The ETH product returns 95% of staking rewards to investors, with Galaxy Digital serving as custodian
➡️ This signals traditional finance giants now competing for crypto ETF market share via low fees + staking yield strategies. Fidelity, VanEck, 21Shares, and others have filed or updated S-1s with staking components. The ETF race is shifting from "can you buy it?" to "who's cheapest and who pays the most yield"
5️⃣ CLARITY Act Clears Senate Banking Committee — July Is the Make-or-Break Window
➡️ The crypto market structure bill CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan 15–9 vote and has been placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar. Senator Lummis is pushing for a floor vote after the Senate reconvenes on July 13, targeting completion before month-end
➡️ Core of the bill: classifies most digital assets as commodities (primarily under CFTC oversight), delivering the regulatory clarity the crypto industry has long awaited. Requires 60 votes to pass; Republicans hold ~53 seats, needing at least 7 Democrats. Galaxy Research has lowered the 2026 passage probability to ~50%
➡️ July is the make-or-break window — missing the pre-August recess deadline would likely push the bill into 2027
6️⃣ Hyperliquid HIP-3: Record $72.15B Monthly Volume, TradFi Share Keeps Growing
➡️ Hyperliquid HIP-3 (TradFi perpetuals) recorded approximately $72.15B in June trading volume, an all-time monthly high. Trade xyz accounts for ~97% of HIP-3 volume. HIP-3 now represents ~33% of total Hyperliquid perp volume, with peaks approaching 49%
➡️ Daily volume surpassed $3B at peak; open interest (OI) hit a record high of ~$3.1B. Priority fees from HIP-3 continue to drive HYPE token burns
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CEREBRAS $CBRS IS ABOUT TO GO PUBLIC ... HERE IS A DEEP DIVE ON WHAT THEY ACTUALLY DO
Most people have no idea what this company actually does.
Here is the plain-English version:
THE BIG IDEA
Every AI model you have ever used (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama) is trained on chips. The dominant company is NVIDIA $NVDA, which sells lots of small chips that get wired together into clusters by the thousands.
Cerebras went the opposite direction.
They build ONE giant chip the size of a dinner plate.
Not exaggerating. Their flagship "Wafer-Scale Engine" (WSE-3) is 46,225 square millimeters of silicon. A normal AI chip is smaller than a postage stamp.
THE NUMBERS
On that one giant chip:
- 4 trillion transistors (a top-end NVIDIA GPU has roughly 80 billion)
- 900,000 AI cores
- 44 GB of on-chip memory
- 125 petaflops of compute power
- Built on TSMC's 5nm process
WHY THAT MATTERS
When you wire thousands of small chips together, the wires become the bottleneck. Data has to travel between chips constantly. That eats time, power, and money.
Cerebras keeps everything on one piece of silicon. No cables between chips. No slow networking. Just one giant brain.
The pitch: faster training, faster inference, fewer engineers needed to manage cluster bottlenecks.
WHAT THEY SELL
Three ways to use Cerebras:
- Buy the system outright (the "CS-3" is the box that holds the chip)
- Rent compute via Cerebras Cloud
- Dedicated capacity contracts for big customers
They have 6 new AI inference data centers coming online across North America and Europe.
WHO ACTUALLY USES IT
The customer list is the validation:
- OpenAI: $20B+ committed over three years
- Meta $META: powers the Llama API for developers
- Perplexity: runs its Sonar search model on Cerebras
- Mistral: the French AI lab runs Le Chat on Cerebras
- Mayo Clinic: trains genomic AI models on Cerebras infrastructure
- GSK $GSK: trains biological language models
- Argonne National Lab: has used Cerebras hardware since 2019
- AWS: hosts Cerebras chips inside Amazon data centers, accessed through Bedrock
- US Department of Energy: signed an MOU for the Genesis Mission
THE TRADE-OFF
Cerebras is small compared to NVIDIA. 2025 revenue: $510M. 2025 operating loss: $146M.
Concentration is the risk most coverage will not flag:
- G42 (the UAE conglomerate) was 85% of 2024 revenue per Reuters
- G42 plus MBZUAI (the Abu Dhabi AI university) were 86% of 2025 revenue per FT
- The OpenAI deal is the big bet to diversify away from that concentration
THE STORY IN ONE LINE
NVIDIA bet that the future of AI is millions of small chips working together. Cerebras bet on one giant chip doing the work in one place. The market just decided their bet is worth nearly twice what they priced it at.
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🚨 NIKKEI 225 RISES 1.8%, LED BY CHIP AND ELECTRONICS STOCKS $EWJ
Absolute Storm Ep 225 5/20/26 6pm EDT
499 Detalks [CN] 225:
Deconstructing the Agentic Web: Multi-Model Intelligent Routing & On-Chain Financial Infrastructure Accelerating AGI Landing
Time:28, April, 2026, 20:00 (UTC+8)
Hosted by 499 and co-hosted by
@BAI_AGI, this Space explores how intelligent model routing, on-chain data infrastructure, and dedicated agent financial rails can bridge the gap and accelerate AGI into the real world.
Mod: Charis
@charis_em, 499 Core Member
Guest Speakers:
Jtsong
@Jtsong2, Head of APAC,
@0G_labs
Anita
@Anitahityou, APAC,
@SentientAGI
Leslie
@leslieloser_ , Content Creator
Mia
@Artistkatty_ , Growth from Starchild
Rika
@rayrayweb5, KOL
Key discussion topics include:
-- From “chat tools” to “autonomous economic entities”: What is the single biggest bottleneck stopping AI Agents from true mass adoption
-- Multi-model intelligent routing & data orchestration: How far has the industry come in routing across multiple models and data sources
-- Agent Wallets & on-chain credit systems: The power of Machine-to-Machine (M2M) value transfer when every AI has its own wallet
Space Link:
Telegram Group:
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