Active Telegram Users 2025 - 1 billion 2024 - 950 million 2023 - 800 million 2022 - 700 million 2021 - 500 million 2020 - 400 million 2019 - 300 million 2018 - 200 million 2017 - 150 million 2016 - 80 million 2015 - 50 million 2014 - 35 million

September returns for S&P 500 over 25 years: 2025: +3.50% 2024: +2.00% 2023: −4.90% 2022: −9.30% 2021: −4.80% 2020: −3.90% 2019: +1.70% 2018: +0.40% 2017: +1.90% 2016: −0.10% 2015: −2.60% 2014: −1.60% 2013: +2.97% 2012: +2.40% 2011: −7.20% 2010: +8.80% 2009: +3.60% 2008: −9.10% 2007: +3.60% 2006: +2.50% 2005: +0.70% 2004: +0.90% 2003: −1.20% 2002: −11.00% 2001: −8.20% 25-year average: −1.2%

$SPX How the last trading day of September EOQ Window Dressing closed since 2009: 2025: +.41% 2024: +.42% 2023: -.27% 2022: -1.51% 2021: -1.19% 2020: +.83% 2019: +.50% 2018: +.00% 2017: +.37% 2016: +.80% 2015: +1.91% 2014: -.28% 2013: -.60% 2012: -.45% 2011: -2.50% 2010: -.31% 2009: -.33% In other words, no pattern, no trend, just straight randomness. I guess outside 2018, can expect elevated volatility to both up or downside if that.

🇺🇸 US Dollar (USD) to 🇷🇺 Russian Rouble (RUB) exchange rate: 2010: 30.37 2011: 29.38 2012: 31.07 2013: 31.86 2014: 38.57 2015: 61.22 2016: 66.98 2017: 58.30 2018: 62.82 2019: 64.69 2020: 72.31 2021: 73.70 2022: 69.89 2023: 85.50 2024: 92.83 2025: 83.75 2026: 83.00

Here’s how the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO has performed each full year since it first launched in 2010: 2011: +1.90%🟢 2012: +15.99%🟢 2013: +32.39%🟢 2014: +13.56%🟢 2015: +1.33%🟢 2016: +12.17%🟢 2017: +21.77%🟢 2018: –4.50%🔴 2019: +31.37%🟢 2020: +18.32%🟢 2021: +28.79%🟢 2022: –18.17%🔴 2023: +26.32%🟢 2024: +24.98%🟢 2025: +17.82%🟢 2026: +8.57%🟢 (so far)

Here's how Apple $AAPL stock has performed every full year since going public 1981: -35.1%🔴 1982: +34.9%🟢 1983: -18.4%🔴 1984: +19.5%🟢 1985: -24.5%🔴 1986: +84.1%🟢 1987: +108%🟢 1988: -3.4%🔴 1989: -11.6%🔴 1990: +23.5%🟢 1991: +32.4%🟢 1992: +6.9%🟢 1993: -50.5%🔴 1994: +35.2%🟢 1995: -17.3%🔴 1996: -34.5%🔴 1997: -37.1%🔴 1998: +211.7%🟢 1999: +151.1%🟢 2000: -71.1%🔴 2001: +47.2%🟢 2002: -34.6%🔴 2003: +49.1%🟢 2004: +201.3%🟢 2005: +123.3%🟢 2006: +18%🟢 2007: +133.5%🟢 2008: -56.9%🔴 2009: +146.9%🟢 2010: +53.1%🟢 2011: +25.6%🟢 2012: +32.6%🟢 2013: +8.1%🟢 2014: +40.6%🟢 2015: -3%🔴 2016: +12.5%🟢 2017: +48.5%🟢 2018: -5.4%🔴 2019: +89%🟢 2020: +82.3%🟢 2021: +34.7%🟢 2022: -26.4%🔴 2023: +49%🟢 2024: +30.7%🟢 2025: +9%🟢 2026*: +25%🟢 (So far)

This is the BEST POSSIBLE EVIDENCE that the BITCOIN BOTTOM is IN. Check this out. I built a new on-chain model to answer one question: What if Bitcoin bottoms BEFORE the sellers are actually finished dying? Because that is exactly what happened in 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022. And it appears to be happening again. I call it the BITCOIN SELLER HALF-LIFE. The model tracks when long-term holders are selling at losses, how much genuinely old supply is moving, how violently coin-days are being destroyed, and whether long-term supply is actively distributing. In other words it measures the radioactive isotope known scientifically as: “guy who bought the top and has finally informed his wife.” June 30: Bitcoin hits $58,526. Everyone is clinically depressed. The timeline is full of men with laser eyes quietly changing their bios to “AI / macro / longevity.” You would assume maximum capitulation happened right there. It didn’t. Seller stress kept RISING. It finally peaked on August 7. 38 DAYS AFTER THE PRICE LOW. And by the time sellers reached maximum distress… Bitcoin was already 10.9% ABOVE the low. Yup. Sellers got MORE desperate. More old coins moved. Long-term holders realized uglier losses. Coin destruction intensified. And price said “best I can do is remain above $58,526.” That is ABSORPTION. And this pattern is historically normal. Previous cycles: 2015: seller stress peaked 5 days AFTER the BTC low 2018: 37 days AFTER 2020: 10 days AFTER 2022: 3 days AFTER 2026: 38 days AFTER Yes. 38 days today versus 37 days in 2018. Bitcoin apparently has a capitulation department staffed by the same county employees who renew your tabs at the DMV. But there’s more. At the August 7 stress peak: LTS SOPR: 0.811. Meaning long-term coins being spent were taking serious losses. 1-year+ old-coin spending was elevated. LTS Coin Days Destroyed: 14.44 MILLION Nine days later: LTS SOPR: 0.937 Old-coin spent share: DOWN 55.9% LTS CDD: DOWN 57.0% The raw internals are already rolling over. The old sellers are running out of ammunition. They are standing in the garage surrounded by an upside-down side-by-side loan, two broken DeWalt batteries and the remnants of a Costco brisket explaining that they are “waiting for liquidity.” But here is the important nuance: The seller wave is NOT dead yet. My smoothed stress index still shows roughly 80% of peak stress remaining. Historical median time from peak seller stress to: 50% remaining: 50 days 25% remaining: 130.5 days 10% remaining: 169.5 days That means if history rhymes, the bottom does NOT require every seller to finish selling. The price can bottom first. Then the network spends months digesting the radioactive remains. And that is precisely what the historical data says happened. The most bullish sentence in this entire analysis is: MAXIMUM SELLER STRESS FAILED TO CREATE A NEW PRICE LOW. Read that again. Bitcoin absorbed the worst combination of: long-term holder losses old-coin movement coin-day destruction long-term distribution …and stayed above the June low. This is how bottoms form. Not when a 29-year-old CNBC contributor wearing a quarter-zip tells you “institutional flows have stabilized.” Bottoms happen when the people who absolutely HAVE TO SELL finally unload into buyers who simply refuse to move. Now, this was a shallower reset than 2015, 2018 or 2022. At the June low: NUPL was still +0.093 and LTH MVRV was still 1.176. Bitcoin remained above aggregate realized price. So this was not generational thermonuclear undervaluation. It looks more like a high-level absorption reset… the market found a clearing price before the entire holder base became insolvent. That may be the structural difference this cycle with more institutional capital and more corporate buyers. This is permanent demand. June 30 was probably the bottom. We are now in the ugly phase AFTER capitulation but BEFORE clean expansion. The sellers are decaying.

I observed every single $BTC bear cycle. Key update: Practically every single cycle, we complete a 5-wave correction. We also tend to form two significant bear market highs. The first comes immediately after the initial top on the first major retrace. This is the complacency high, the point where the majority believe the bull market is back. It's exactly why I took shorts from 96K down to 70K this cycle. Once that complacency high is established, price usually pushes to fresh lows as the macro correction continues. We saw this in 2014, 2022, and again in 2026. In 2018, price didn't make a new low after the complacency bounce, but the overall structure remained very similar with multiple retests. Shortly afterwards, we typically get a dead cat bounce. Across the previous cycles, this dead cat bounce establishes the base low. By this stage, most market participants have already been wrecked after buying into complacency, sentiment is at its worst, and everyone begins aggressively piling into shorts. Delta flips, shorts get squeezed, and price rallies. At the end of the day, it's simply market psychology. After the dead cat base low is formed, the final bottom is usually established following the second major retest. We saw this in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Fast forward to today, BTC has swept the dead cat base low and completed the same 5-wave corrective structure we've seen throughout previous cycles. The only thing that makes me hesitate is the timing. Every previous bear market has lasted roughly 365 days before putting in the final bottom. If the low is already in this cycle, it would have formed in around 260 days, roughly 100 days earlier than every previous cycle. That's why I'm still 50/50. Structure suggests the bottom is in. Timing suggests it isn't. Eventually, cycle lengths will change. The mistake is assuming they never will. We need to be prepared for that possibility. We'll likely have our answer over the next couple of months, but it's worth pointing out that, from a structural perspective, every corrective wave has now been completed and the lows appear to have been established. There is a very good chance we get some chop from here, but in terms of the low being in, I think it's more likely we form higher lows than make significant new lows.

Happy Birthday, Elon Musk! 🎂🚀 Today we celebrate the ultimate builder, innovator, and meme lord who turned sci-fi dreams into reality. From early startups to revolutionizing multiple industries, here’s a tribute to every major Elon Musk product Every Elon Musk product: 1. Blastar (1984) 2. Zip2 (1995) 3. X . com (1999) 4. Tesla Roadster (2006) 5. Falcon 1 (2006) 6. Tesla Model S (2009) 7. Falcon 9 (2010) 8. Giga Fremont (2010) 9. Dragon 1 (2010) 10. Supercharging network (2012) 11. Starship (2012) 12. Hyperloop (2013) 13. Dragon 2 (2014) 14. Tesla Model X (2015) 15. New Spacesuits (2015) 16. Starlink (2015) 17. Powerwall 1 (2015) 18. Giga Nevada (2016) 19. Tesla Model 3 (2016) 20. Powerwall 2 (2016) 21. Tesla solar roof (2016) 22. FSD (2016) 23. Tesla Semi (2017) 24. Tesla Roadster 2.0 (2017) 25. Tesla solar panels (2017) 26. Giga New York (2017) 27. Neuralink (2017) 28. Not-a-Flamethrower (2018) 29. Falcon Heavy (2018) 30. Giga Shanghai (2019) 31. Tesla Cybertruck (2019) 32. Tesla Cyberquad (2019) 33. Tesla Model Y (2019) 34. Tesla Megapack (2019) 35. Tesla Insurance (2019) 36. 4680 cells (2020) 37. Short Shorts (2020) 38. Tesla Optimus (2021) 39. Giga Berlin (2022) 40. Prufrock II (2022) 41. Burnt Hair Parfume (2022) 42. Giga Texas (2022) 43. Powerwall 3 (2023) 44. Tesla Dojo (2023) 45. Giga Mexico (2023) 46. Grok (2023) 47. Cybercab (2024) 48. Robovan (2024) 49. Robotaxi (2025) 50. SpaceX IPO (2026) 51. xAI + SpaceX Merger (2026) 52. Macrohard (2026) Note: this list is not exhaustive. Some of the products are in development status.