I think the AI datacenter energy startup investing spree has become bubbly because at the end of the day, energy is is purely a function of the cost per kw and the sales of the kw.
The Anthropic x Blackstone SPV to fund Google TPU purchases was priced at $6B A1 paying Treasury + 100bps, $24B A2 paying 5.75%, and a Class B $4.5B paying 8.5%.
This is hardware, I'd guess for just energy its slightly cheaper to finance. So a company like
@fluidstack 's entire job is to minimize their cost of capital and maximize their selling price. The energy price ceiling that PJM introduced means that perhaps energy costs are exorbitant, which may make the per kw costs of ocean and space datacenters economical, but investing in those companies means betting that the kw costs stay elevated and continue to rise.
It is not only a bet on the cost of energy rising substantially but also that credits don't get commoditized across AI models, which is where crowd sourced compute comes in.
Even if datacenters in the ocean become operational today, the calculus on bond markets on whether to fund their expansion is entirely based on the cost of capital vs selling price. I don't even know if it would make sense if these alternatives worked today, let alone in a couple years when they actually become operational.