I’m at the age where I’ll gladly pay $5,000 for an international first class ticket but I’m still stopping by the 7-11 on the way to a movie, because I’m not giving AMC $40 for a Coke Zero and some M&Ms.

I see a lot of folks saying the CPU trade came out of NOWHERE. How is the market just finding out that CPUs are a major AI bottleneck? Let me try to explain. The market had the ingredients right but the ratio wrong. From 2023-25 the assumption was that inference means the GPU does the work and the CPU just boots the box and feeds it. Training ran about 1 CPU per 8 GPUs. Serving tightened that to maybe 1:3-4. Then agents showed up and the math completely changed. An agent spends most of its time outside the model call. Tool calls, headless browsers, sandboxes staying alive after you close the app, retrieval, multi-agent orchestration. The GPU handles one step of that. Almost everything wrapped around it though is CPU work. Some research puts CPU-side tool processing at 50-90% of total latency in an agentic loop. So the math changed in real time: Training 1:8, Plain inference 1:4, Agentic now approaching 1:1. Arm's version of the same number: 30M CPU cores per gigawatt in a normal AI datacenter vs 120M in an agent-era one. A 4x jump in host compute intensity. Why it stayed a story instead of a trade for so long: custom ARM silicon was supposed to absorb this, but agentic demand got big enough to stress BOTH custom ARM and merchant x86, and even NVIDIA ended up shipping Vera as a standalone CPU. Intel was psychologically un-investable after years of share loss, so the first reaction to rising CPU demand was "AMD takes it," and not "the entire CPU category is short." And capital followed the binding constraint in order: GPUs, packaging, HBM/DRAM, power. CPU wafers looked fine until those higher margin products already ate the foundry capacity ahead of them. 2026 turned the story into actual, tangible numbers. AMD doubled its server CPU TAM to $120B by 2030 on agentic demand. EPYC sold out through year end, 30+ week lead times. Intel filling only 40% of backlog, 6-8 month waits in parts of Asia. Nobody disputed the input was needed; the sizing was just misunderstood.

I know a lot of folks on X who follow me don't do Discord/Whop. Would you be interested in Substack? Don't know if X subscriptions are the right forum for my content. I tend to write a lot lol. Thank you Jake 🙏🏼

$COIN with the textbook break and retest. Took $CONL shares after hours as a substitute for options. There is a secondary trend line we need to get above right here. If it breaks that, expect Valhalla.

The 10y is "the most important asset anywhere in the world" according to Kevin Warsh. It's also very susceptible to resistance at the 5% mark. We crossed 5% yesterday and dipped below so far. Longing the 10y here is an extremely high reward/low risk play, especially after Warsh gave the bond market what it wanted for September.

My thesis for buying $QQQ and $TLT calls on the FOMC livestream on YouTube yesterday was based off this 👇🏼 Sentiment was weak on both sides of the Fed decision, weaker than March by some measures. Selling off into a 93% priced in hike is not a recipe for continuation.

This account has become like the Onion of finance. They are not expecting a 75 basis point hike. Those few banks are pricing in an increase of 75 bps through the end of the year over the course of 3 FOMC meetings. You are either doing this on purpose or you have a bunch of gen z'ers working at Kalshi Finance.

🚨 Big one today. FOMC decision at 2PM ET, presser at 2:30. Here's my thesis: Warsh has held at his last two FOMCs and refused to give any forward guidance (his approach for the new Fed). No guidance definitely pinned him in a corner. Without any Fed insight the bond market is now pricing in a 92% chance of hiking. But... Core CPI just hit 2.4% YoY, lowest since March 2021! Headline CPI is stuck at 3.4% purely on energy, diesel near $6/gal off the Iran conflict, driven by a supply shock and not demand pull. A hike doesn't fix a supply shock. It doesn't reopen Hormuz either. If the Fed hikes into a 5yr low on core, driven by oil he can't control, it looks reactive. If they hold after the market priced in near certainty, and bonds throw a tantrum. Zero guidance turned a normal meeting into a coin flip with consequences either way. In terms of the market, we are actually at a yearly low of stocks making 52-week highs vs 52-week lows, even lower than March of this year. SPY and a few Mags look super coiled in descending channels leading up to this Fed decision. I would not be surprised to see a big short-term move out of this to the upside in the following week or two, especially when sentiment is this weak. There is fear surrounding both sides of the Fed decision and I think the pain trade is actually to the upside now, regardless of what noise is generated today.