📊 #BITDailyChart# | As AI Mania Bypasses Crypto, NEAR-USDT Emerges as a Correlated Proxy Some crypto traders are frustrated that digital assets have lagged the AI trade's bullish momentum, which has instead concentrated in DRAM names, energy plays, and broad-based vehicles like Korea's EWY ETF. Yet select crypto tokens haven't been left out entirely. NEAR-USDT has shown a high correlation to the AI trade, both on the way up and the way down. Near Protocol markets itself heavily as an "AI + blockchain" play built around AI agents and data infrastructure, so its price often tracks AI-narrative sentiment rather than its own protocol fundamentals. As crypto keeps merging with TradFi, traders have growing options to express dominant macro themes. Disclaimer: This content is provided by a contracted analyst for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk. #BIT# #Crypto# #AITrade# #NEAR# #KOSPI# #TradFi#

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AI TRADE RESET? Once known as an “AI prophet,” Leopold Aschenbrenner is now facing one of Wall Street’s toughest lessons. His AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness came under significant pressure during the AI stock sell-off, selling a large portion of its public equity positions, with parts of the portfolio acquired by Citadel. The fund previously gained attention for its heavy exposure to AI infrastructure stocks. But as the market reassesses: • AI valuations • Returns on compute investments • Semiconductor growth expectations The risks of highly leveraged strategies are becoming increasingly visible. Markets reward those who identify the right direction, but they rarely forgive poor position management. The AI narrative is far from over. But investors are entering a new phase: From believing in the future, to validating the value. #XBIT# #AI# #Markets#

AI’s Crowded Crash. And Why It Isn’t Over. The most crowded trade in market history has finally met gravity. The AI‑driven tech momentum complex has just endured a brutal reset, wiping out trillions of dollars in market value across semis and AI‑adjacent software. Yet the violence of the unwind says more about positioning than about the durability of the underlying earnings. The collapse in momentum was not a verdict on AI. It was a verdict on a trade in which “own AI” became shorthand for owning the same narrow basket of AI Bottleneck Stocks and their satellites. Performance fed flows, flows fed narrative, and risk management was quietly outsourced to factor models. When rebalances, thin liquidity and awkward questions about capex timing collided, the unwind was mechanical. What matters now is the separation phase the correction has triggered. The boom blurred an obvious point: not every technology stock is a meaningful AI winner, and not every AI beneficiary deserves a 100X multiple. Some companies genuinely sit at the heart of AI economics – core compute, high‑end memory, critical tools, deployment infrastructure. Others wear AI as branding rather than as a true driver of demand or margin. Post‑flush, investors are beginning to discriminate. This is happening against the backdrop of robust earnings. Index‑level growth remains north of 20 per cent, with double‑digit expansion even outside tech. AI is still a powerful horizontal technology, but it is no longer the only game in town. Leadership is broadening towards cyclicals, Financials, infrastructure, equipment and vertical software that convert AI into operational outcomes, not just headlines. And yes, Crypto if the Clarity Act gets passed. The factor flush did not kill the AI trade; it refined it. The job now is to follow earnings leadership, not yesterday’s momentum screens. This time it’s not different.

The AI trade is diverging sharply: The 30-day correlation between the largest US CapEx spenders and the semiconductor index, $SOX, is down to almost zero, near the lowest in at least 4.5 years. This marks a sharp decline from the +0.78 positive correlation seen in April. By comparison, the average correlation coefficient has been +0.60 since the start of 2022. The divergence comes as semiconductor stocks have rallied while the largest AI infrastructure spenders have declined, and vice versa, since the beginning of June. This tells us that investors are no longer treating AI infrastructure builders and chipmakers as one trade, as chipmakers benefit from AI demand while hyperscalers face questions over whether massive spending will generate sufficient returns. The next phase of the AI trade will be defined by profitability, not investment.

Is AI spending a bubble? @fundstrat's Tom Lee and @MarkNewtonCMT break down the AI trade, the macro read, and July's top stock ideas in Fundstrat's replay:

The AI trade has now reached the same concentration zone that marked earlier market peaks. - In the 1970s, the Nifty Fifty reached about 40% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. - In the 1980s, Japan reached about 44% of the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Index. - Around 2000, tech and telecom reached about 41% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. - Now, the 10 biggest AI-linked stocks are around 41% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. Does not automatically mean AI is a bubble or that the market has to crash. But it does mean the market has become very dependent on a small group of companies, with concentrated bet on 1 theme. So the question is now, can a small group of AI winners keep delivering enough growth to justify carrying the entire market?