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Phil Rosen
@philrosenn
Chief Market Strategist, Silvia Inc. • Co-founder & CEO, Opening Bell Media • Host of Full Signal • Writing a newsletter to 200K+ investors every day👇
1.9K Following    21.8K Followers
Investors losing money in the stock market believe the game is rigged. But if anything, it's rigged to go up not down. Asset prices have always gone higher over the long-term even after bear markets and corrections, as @RyanDetrick explains on Full Signal.
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The Fed can do whatever it wants but AI is still the most powerful force driving markets right now. AI is the macro and a few basis points of interest rate moves won't change that. My discussion with @jd_durkin at @NYSE (and a shoutout to @RyanDetrick!)
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The AI boom is still ripping but a handful of undervalued corners of the market look set to outperform. I sat down with @MebFaber to unpack the "bear market in diversification," the global buyback boom, the risks of the tech trade, why he's bullish on non-US stocks, and building a new portfolio from scratch today. Meb is a true student of history. He's among the best of the best in markets. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Historic bull market 4:28 - Bear market in diversification 7:40 - Opportunities outside the US 9:51 - US stocks look expensive 11:37 - Buyback revolution 17:02 - Value without avoiding tech 20:45 - SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI 22:34 - Will AI be a good investment? 27:07 - Building a portfolio from scratch 31:57 - Investing at all-time highs 33:28 - Shareholder yield 39:14 - @CambriaFunds @TheIdeaFarm
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Your portfolio would be +253% if you bought the Nasdaq at the start of this decade and nothing else. $QQQ has outperformed the S&P 500 by 111 points in less than 7 years even with the COVID crash and 2022 bear market.
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Rising rates and a collapse VC funding could threaten 25% of frontier AI labs' recurring revenue. That could then trigger a sell off in the broader AI trade. @WarrenPies unpacks the bear case.
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The year after a midterm election has historically led to the strongest S&P 500 returns. +17.2% dating back to 1950, more than double the second-strongest year in the presidential cycle.
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Technology and energy are the only 2 sectors outperforming the S&P 500 in 2026. 9 of 11 sectors are lagging and the dominance of mega-cap technology is only accelerating.
Tech stocks are historically cheap compared to the S&P 500 right now. Last time valuations looked like this was in 2019, when Nvidia's market cap was just $144 billion. $NVDA near $6 trillion today. (h/t @tatianadariee)
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Investors are worried about bond yields and oil prices but AI is accelerating so rapidly that traditional macro indicators do not matter. I sat down with @APompliano to unpack the current market outlook, the case for bitcoin, gold and land during an AI boom, and how the rise of AI agents impacts the bull case for bitcoin. We also discussed Pomp's new book, How to live an Extraordinary Life Vol. 2. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Macro bears are wrong 5:53 - AI adoption reality check 8:23 - Bitcoin, gold, land 10:08 - $MSFT and $NFLX 14:31 - Barbell portfolio strategy 16:01 - How AI impacts $BTC 19:41 - Gold 20:43 - How to Live an Extraordinary Life Vol. 2 23:05 - The ego tax 24:02 - Procrastination is arrogance 25:19 - Amateurs built Noah's Ark
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The AI trade is narrowing but a top-heavy market doesn't mean investors should turn bearish. I sat down with @_JoshSchafer to discuss how to position for worsening market breadth, the rise of consumer AI agents, and his top stock picks for the year ahead. Josh is one of the best in the business and the insights in this conversation will surprise you. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Market breadth narrowing 2:49 - Why stocks ignore bond yields 4:22 - Meta Muse 6:00 - Fee AI products vs. monetization 11:16 - Would consumers pay for AI agents? 13:39 - AI regulation and existential risk 16:32 - AI token prices 19:08 - Trump's tech CEO seating chart 22:09 - Intel 23:32 - Cybersecurity 26:01 - Walmart 28:38 - Under-the-radar sports stock 31:37 - Searching for Signals
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Every idea in this book is gold. Highly recommend @APompliano's new book for anyone who is ambitious in business and life. A must read for those who want practical, no bullshit wisdom that so many other books leave out.
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Dear friends - I need your help today. My new book is being published this morning. It contains 50 life-changing ideas that impacted me personally, professionally, or financially. I promise if you read the book, you will still be thinking about these ideas for months to come. Order a copy here: I don't have a large, traditional publisher. I am not doing a bunch of mainstream media interviews to promote the book. Instead, I am counting on the power of the internet, plus the high-quality nature of the book, to kickstart viral word-of-mouth. If you have ever received value from anything I have done, please consider buying a physical copy or getting the audiobook. I appreciate your support in advance. Get the book:
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Midterm elections are historically bullish for stocks - S&P 500 avgs 31.8% return from midterm-year low - Midterm Q4 avg 6.6% return, strongest of cycle - Post-Midterm year avg 17% return, strongest of cycle Buckle up for higher asset prices.
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I took the stage at HOOD Summit with @RobinhoodApp chief investment officer @StephGuildNYC to unpack the stocks inside the firm's active portfolio. - 6 specific names $HOOD owns now - Bullish midterm seasonality - Hedging AI bubble risks New live recording of FULL SIGNAL👇 0:00 - Stocks at record highs 1:38 - Energy as a hedge 2:32 - Midterms and 4-year cycle 3:45 - Market breadth narrowing 5:06 - Earnings expectations bubble? 7:29 - 10-year yield at 5.2% 10:35 - Stocks vs. bonds 11:28 - AI capex vs. economic growth 14:35 - Software -consumer divide 15:46 - Energy stock picks 18:54 - Defense sector 20:37 - Robinhood Strategies 23:31 - AI bubble risks 26:19 - Cybersecurity stocks 27:18 - Stocks to avoid 29:06 - What we could be wrong about 31:24 - Follow Steph
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Dear friends - I need your help today. My new book is being published this morning. It contains 50 life-changing ideas that impacted me personally, professionally, or financially. I promise if you read the book, you will still be thinking about these ideas for months to come. Order a copy here: I don't have a large, traditional publisher. I am not doing a bunch of mainstream media interviews to promote the book. Instead, I am counting on the power of the internet, plus the high-quality nature of the book, to kickstart viral word-of-mouth. If you have ever received value from anything I have done, please consider buying a physical copy or getting the audiobook. I appreciate your support in advance. Get the book:
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Sandisk $SNDK is the best-performing S&P 500 stock this year just like it was in 2025. Nine of the 10 top stocks are tied to AI boom. Moderna $MRNA is the only outlier.
The S&P 500 is suddenly outperforming the equal-weight index after lagging all year. That means market breadth is narrowing, but it does not necessarily mean the bull run is about to lose momentum.
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If you put $10,000 in Nvidia the day before ChatGPT launched, you would have $152,000 today. $NVDA +1,416% since November 2022.
Bond volatility is going up while stock volatility is going down. The two are diverging as bond yields hit multi-decade highs and the S&P 500 is still within range of its record high.
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Micron $MU now trades at 6x earnings while Qualcomm traded at 146x during the dot-com bubble. No comparison between the 2026 boom and 2001.
On stage at HOOD Summit with: - Chess Grandmaster @GMHikaru - @RobinhoodApp VP of Product @abhishekf96 - @TipRanks CEO Fun discussion about risk-taking in markets in the age of AI
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Talking stocks on stage with @RobinhoodApp's chief investment officer @StephGuildNYC during a live show for FULL SIGNAL. Having a blast at $HOOD Summit in Houston.