ASIC Update: TPU v9 Timeline & v10 Opportunities • We push out TPU v9 Humufish expectations by one quarter
Core A slipped ~3 weeks → MTK Core B/I/O mods. Sampling still Nov; expect tape-out in Jan 2027, MP tape-out 2Q27, shipments 1Q28. • Constructive on EMIB-T: root causes of substrate yield (45-50%) identified → potential re-acceleration. • Google still undersupplies its own models. Gemini 4 trained on ~200k TPU v7, but heavy external allocation (esp. Anthropic) in 1H26. More internal in 2H26 helps, yet compute gap widens — Anthropic + OpenAI each +5–10 GW in 2027 vs few GW for Google. • Broadcom unchanged: 460k CoWoS wafers in 2027, shipments late 2026.
MTK Zebrafish volumes higher into 2027–28, partially offsetting v9 timing. • TPU v10 (4Q28/1Q29): Icefish (MTK + GUC 3DIC on A14) the only confirmed mainstream SKU. Merope uncertain; Broadcom faces AMD+Marvell competition. EMIB-T momentum rising for v10 • Near-term headwinds for MTK; mid/long-term still like MRVL, MTK (100% v9 + potential new DC customers), and Intel (EMIB-T). #MTK# #TPU# #Broadcom# #INTC# #MRVL#

ASIC Shipments to Surpass GPUs in 2027 DIGITIMES expects ASIC shipments to surpass GPUs in 2027, driven by $GOOG, $AMZN, and Huawei, while Nvidia and Google emerge as the two dominant forces in high-end AI accelerators As $TSM, $ASX, and Amkor expand advanced packaging capacity, the main supply constraints are shifting toward ABF substrates, T-glass, high-layer-count PCBs, and HBM ABF substrates and T-glass are expected to remain in shortage through 2027–2028, prompting major capacity expansions from Ibiden, Unimicron, Kinsus, SEMCO, Shinko, Nittobo, and others PCB requirements are also becoming far more demanding, with AI server boards moving from 12–20 layers toward 40–50 layers, while new capacity can take 2–3 years to build and qualify The result is a supply-chain race in which AI accelerator companies increasingly need to secure capacity early, qualify new suppliers, or directly invest in their supply chains

ASIC Warp-Up 📈Stock Picks: maintains a positive view on MRVL, MTK, and Intel following recent earnings, supply chain checks and our recent notes. 👊Nvidia vs. ASIC: Nvidia's CoWoS share at TSM will remain stable in 2027; Nvidia Vera Rubin outperforms competitors in performance/TCO/supply chain. * TPU Dynamics: On June 14 report, we lowered Broadcom's Sunfish volume for 2026/27 due to packaging re-design and set 460k CoWoS (ASIC) in 2027; MTK Humufish (which leads in N2 vs Whalefish) potential launch in 4Q27 suggesting the window for Broadcom’s CoWoS back to TPU could be only in 1H26. Expect Humufish tape-out in around Nov-2026 with a not too high passing rate. * Google Custom Silicon: MRVL expects meaningful contributions from Google CXL and DPU (~$3bn each by 2028), with an MPU start on TSMC N2 yielding $3bn+ in CY28 revenue. * AWS Trainium: Reit MRVL T3 of $1bn/$2bn in CY26/27 and likely >$3bn from T4 in CY28 with a much higher ASP and better NPO scale-up. * Intel Backend Packaging: Reit Intel's FY27/FY28 back-end revenue forecast of $1.1bn/$7bn, supported by AWS T3 EMIB-T and Google Humufish/Triggerfish volumes through 2H27-2028. We expect more wins for U.S. fabless including MSFT, QCOM, MRVL, with products across ASIC, CPU and CPO. ABF substrate to greatly benefit from EMIB. #NVDA# #ASIC# #MRVL# #Mediatek# #SMTC# #INTC# #ABF#