Bitcoin’s bottom may already be in. Two independent analyses from @Bitwise and Payward Services’ @CFBenchmarks point to the same conclusion: Bitcoin’s cycle low is more likely behind us than ahead. Read the research:

Bitcoin surged above $85,000 for the first time since January as risk appetite returned across markets. Ether approached $2,750, while renewed ETF inflows and easing oil prices added momentum to crypto's rebound. #Bitcoin# #Crypto# #Markets# #Ethereum#

Bitcoin spent most of today doing almost nothing but the location is interesting. $BTC traded between $80,155 and $81,401 and is still sitting above the $80K base. Nothing dramatic yet. $82K is the level that changes the chart for me. Glassnode also noted that entity-adjusted SOPR remains above 1 while a dense short-liquidation shelf has formed around $83K-$86K. If $82K breaks, that is where the move could start moving faster. If $80K goes instead, I’m looking back toward $78.8K-$79.3K.

Bitcoin's 120-day correlation with gold just hit the 99.5th percentile of every reading since 2020. Its 120-day realized volatility sits in the bottom fifth. Low volatility. Extreme gold correlation. The cross-asset picture gets even more interesting. Over the same 120 days: BTC / Gold: 0.52 BTC / SPY: 0.34 BTC / QQQ: 0.33 For most of the post-2020 era, Bitcoin traded like a high-beta tech stock. Its median correlation ran 0.40 to QQQ and 0.11 to gold. Gold led QQQ in only about 10% of all windows. In September 2022, Bitcoin sat at 0.64 with QQQ and 0.22 with gold. That relationship has inverted. The gap between Bitcoin's gold correlation and its QQQ correlation now stands at +0.19, the widest reading in the entire post-2020 dataset. Control for QQQ, and Bitcoin's link to gold holds at 0.45. Control for gold, and its link to QQQ falls from 0.33 to 0.17. The equity exposure remains. It just moved to the back seat. Bitcoin's dominant macro driver is rotating from pure risk appetite toward the monetary, hard-asset complex, with positive equity beta still along for the ride. Right now, Bitcoin trades less like leveraged tech and more like a monetary asset with a risk-on call option attached.