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Integrated lasers is a very bad idea and sign the market is super desperate. Photon shortage. I agree with Hurlston. Seems the Sumitomo 6in wafers are quite bad. Really funny as COHR yields probably not their fault, Sumitomo fault lol.

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Mizuho on opticals: We see CW laser capacity ramping sharply from ~83M units in 2025 to ~427M by 2029E (Ex-7), driven by SiPho pluggables at 1.6T/3.2T and the initial NPO/CPO transition into 2027-2029E as we see yields improving. We see $COHR profitability lagging as we believe it relies on external lasers for it's leading-edge products (also sourced from LITE) and its business model remains more transceiver-heavy which is lower-margin vs LITE, which we see as more laser-oriented. On margins, LITE continues to ramp GMs sharply from low-30% in early 2024 to the low-50% range in 2026-2028E, while COHR rises more gradually to only the low-40s%, resulting in a 10-11ppt gap. We believe ELS pluggable modules housing a laser source could start to ramp as well. ELS as the back plate pluggable component retains serviceability in case of a component failure, while enabling laser light to transmit the converted optical signal and advance more efficient optical architectures. $LITE has noted orders for ELS have begun, with we believe potentially 2x content opportunity compared to laser chips alone. Ex-China, we believe COHR is the largest transceiver assembler with ~17% market share, differentiated via deep InP vertical integration and high in-house component supply. We note some tailwinds with $NVDA, incl. $2B investment and multi-year CPO/CW supply agreement through YE-2030E. We estimate LITE's Cloudlight business (acquired Nov 2023) is ramping strongly toward ~$900M C26E revenues and ~$1.2B by C27E, but remains smaller at >6% market share. Similar to COHR, LITE is leveraging CW/EML in house manufacturing, but we believe it is entirely reliant on in-house laser chip supply, with a path to mid-30% GM. FN is an important assembler, serving NVDA's designed transceivers alongside merchant OEM contracts. $AAOI (NC) is another key domestic assembler, operating three Taiwan facilities (~795K sq ft) with a new Pearland, Texas facility (800G/1.6T) and an estimated SOP in early 2027E.

Lately I’ve found myself disagreeing with some of Serenity’s points - not necessarily on the endgame, but on the intermediate turns you take to get there. I don’t think communication is as big an issue as people make it out to be. I also don’t think a Nasdaq listing (delay by a quarter or two) is some kind of deal breaker. And I definitely don’t think management has moved away from CPO. The SemiNex partnership was a pretty obvious signal in the opposite direction. They also raised ~SEK 800M specifically for Photonics, not Wireless. Wireless is a separate business unit with its own leadership, and obviously they are going to keep executing. Where I think the distinction matters is this: $SIVE is behind on today’s pluggable commercialization not necessarily on tomorrow’s CPO/NPO transition. Across the sector, the commentary still broadly looks like: 2026–27: 800G → 1.6T pluggables + OCS + components 2027–28: NPO/CPO + ELS/high-power lasers And Sivers’ disclosed CPO/NPO timelines are not wildly different from what LITE and COHR themselves are discussing. The bigger gap today is commercialization, customer validation and production maturity. There is also another possibility people tend to ignore: if Sivers is currently going through customer testing, qualification or NDA covered engagements, management may simply not have much they are allowed to beat the drums about yet. Silence is not automatically evidence that nothing is happening. I trust Vickram to execute. And with businesses like this, once qualification, capacity and customer orders start lining up, several things can move very quickly at the same time. One final point and the probably the most important thing Serenity mentions - if you’re not prepared for an investment to go to zero, you probably shouldn’t be making that investment in the first place. That is broadly how I think about my $SIVE position. I didn’t sell at 100+. I didn’t sell when they diluted me. And I’m not selling simply because it is now around 23. What genuinely ragebaits me is parts of the investor base seemingly being miserable every single day they own the stock. If something consistently makes you suffer, avoid it.

Summary of CPO/NPO Market Update 🚀 NVIDIA CPO: Spectrum-X CPO switches for Scale-out are officially in mass production. Our forecasts: 15k units (2026E) & 100k units (2027E). *Supply Chain: To support the CPO Scale-Out ramp, TSMC has expanded CPO inspection equipment capacity (notably adding Insertion 2/3 capacity), alongside strong progress from key suppliers in FAU, shuffle boxes, and system assembly. * Scale-Up Architecture: Rubin Ultra is now expected to adopt a 9-18-9 tray design. While mechanical challenges from the 0.75U height could potentially lead to a reversion to a 10-9-8. This shift will have no impact on optical engine (OE). 📈 OE Shipments: NVIDIA platform optical engine (OE) shipments expected at 6m (2027E) & 19m (2028E). Total industry-wide OE hitting 11m & 40m. ☁️ Amazon Trainium 4: AWS projected to consume 5m (2H27E) & 12m (2028E) OE units, primarily 6.4T specs. * Trainium 4 will likely have 3 configurations, with two expected to adopt NPO. 💡 Key Plays: LITE/COHR (CW laser upside), Browave (10k+ shuffle box per quarter in 4Q26E, followed by acceleration in 1H27E.), SMTC/MRVL (TIA/Driver), TSEM (NPO PIC exposure). #NVDA# #LITE# #MRVL# #SMTC# #TSEM# #Browave# #CPO# #NPO#

$NOK breakout finally. This is only the first step. Excited for this one from a fundamental and technical perspective and wouldn't be surprised to see it double eventually. Here's why: If data center demand is strong (which it is) the future won't be able to do it without optics. To achieve the needed speeds, data centers are moving away from traditional copper wiring and shifting entirely to optics (like Indium Phosphide lasers and silicon photonics). And NOK is well positioned for this: • They own Infinera after a major acquisition last year, a major optical networking company, which means they own a major share in the manufacturing for Indium Phosphide, a key material used in high-speed optical chips. COHR and LITE are the other major players. Indium Phosphide supply is extremely limited and Nokia has its own in house process. • In addition to a 20-fold expansion at its legacy Infinera fab in San Jose, Nokia finalized a definitive agreement to acquire NXP Semiconductors' massive manufacturing campus in Chandler, Arizona. Nokia is completely repurposing this campus into a dedicated InP photonic chip production facility. • While Coherent and Lumentum focus heavily on raw chip fabrication, Nokia holds a massive competitive advantage in backend advanced packaging and testing.Through its Allentown, Pennsylvania facility, Nokia expanded its domestic photonic packaging throughput by 10 times. This means Nokia can build the raw InP chip and package it into completed optical engines entirely on U.S. soil. Exploding Order Momentum - Nokia’s Q2 financial data confirms that its AI narrative is reality, not hype. Net sales to AI & Cloud customers grew 105% year-over-year. The company booked a massive €2.8 billion in AI & Cloud orders in a single quarter. Crucially, Nokia's total accumulated AI technology orders have swollen to 6.3 times its current quarterly revenue for that segment. This massive backlog creates clear revenue visibility through 2027 and 2028. Margin Expansion via Vertical Integration -Because Nokia owns its own Indium Phosphide fab capacity and advanced packaging, it does not have to pay a markup to merchant suppliers like Coherent or Lumentum. This vertical integration protects Nokia from supply chain constraints and expands margins. Geopolitical Backstop -Regulators are moving to restrict Chinese optical transceivers. As one of the few companies capable of manufacturing, packaging, and testing InP optical engines entirely on U.S. and European soil, Nokia is capturing a captive, high-security market. Following its recent financial reports, analysts from Bank of America lifted their price target to $18.50, and JPMorgan extended a target of $21.00. It's currently trading at $10.