Semtech (SMTC US) Key Takeaway • Rating: Maintain Buy, Target Price $162 (22x FY28E EPS) • F2Q revenue $341.9mn (+33% YoY, +17% QoQ), beat consensus. Non‑GAAP EPS $0.71 (vs consensus $0.61) • Non‑GAAP gross margin record at 54.5% (+150bps QoQ), driven by data‑center • F3Q guidance tops market estimates: revenue $410mn; non‑GAAP gross margin 58.3%; EPS $1.02‑1.08 • AI‑related demand ~3x current supply capacity；growth bottleneck: SiGe / InP wafer & OSAT packaging constraints • 1.6T CopperEdge ACC entered mass shipment to major hyperscalers in F2Q (moved from sampling to material revenue) • 1.6T FiberEdge TIA‑driver initial shipments started; target >50% share in target 1.6T market by end‑FY27E • Post HieFo InP laser acquisition: advancing vertical integration of TIA, driver & laser chips for supply resilience • Deepened MSA standardization work for LPO / NPO; secured multiple design wins, expanding long‑term TAM • Pulled explicit segment YoY growth guidance due to supply uncertainty, but multi‑year hyperscaler AI demand outlook remains solid • Forecast FY27E / FY28E / FY29E EPS: $3.60 / $7.40 / $11 #SMTC# #Semtech# #1#.6T #Optical# #AIInfrastructure#

Abstract - Semtech (SMTC) Initiated Buy on 1.6T and NPO • Initiates with Buy, $180 PT (25x FY28E P/E). • Transitioning from an analog chip company to an AI interconnect beneficiary w portfolio spanning ACC, TIA, drivers, lasers and NPO analog solutions. • Guides FY27 AI revenue >$350M; we forecast $466M (FY27E) → $1.22B (FY28E), driven by 1.6T. • Google TPU expansion to be a key catalyst for CopperEdge ACC. • NPO adoption could be the next major growth leg beyond 2027 as DSP removal increases analog content. • Believes NVIDIA and leading CSPs are evaluating NPO deployments. • NPO market size : we forecast 38M NPO optical engines in 2028, suggesting a multi-billion-dollar TIA/driver TAM • Acquisition of HieFo strengthens its laser portfolio and expands optical content opportunities. #AI# #Semiconductors# #OpticalNetworking# #SMTC#

$SMTC on watch to climb out of its base. Solid earnings reaction today +10.4% on 2.9x volume. Now back above 50d $NVDA earnings reaction is lifting semi AH. If the strength carries over tomorrow, I think we see solid continuation on SMTC

Premarket movers: Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: Tesla rises 3.6% after the EV maker unveiled its long-delayed Roadster sports car (Meta Platforms (META) +0.5%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.5%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.3%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.3%, Apple (AAPL) +0.3%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.1%) Fox Corp. (FOXA) gains 3.9% after BofA upgraded the media company by two notches, to buy from underperform, citing Fox’s deal to buy Roku. Mobileye Global (MBLY) climbs 4% as Citi starts coverage on the maker of software and hardware technology for automobiles with a buy rating, expecting the company to benefit from growth in autonomous driving technology. Semtech Corp. (SMTC) rises 4.4% after Northland Securities upgraded the company to outperform from market perform, a move that comes in the wake of its analyst day event, where it raised its third-quarter forecast. Omeros (OMER) is down 4.1% after the drug developer said an advisory committee of the European Medicines Agency issued a negative opinion on the company’s application for its narsoplimab therapy. Travelers (TRV) drops 4.6% after the insurance company reported net premiums written for the third quarter that met the average analyst estimate. Revenue declined modestly year on year, while catastrophe losses rose. Truist Financial (TFC) falls 2.1% after the financial services company reported third quarter taxable equivalent net interest income that came in just short of expectations. Wise (WSE) falls 2.3% after the payments firm reported cross-border volumes that missed analyst expectations. Zeta Global (ZETA) is up 4.6% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the software company to buy from neutral, seeing potential for it to gain market share.

Mizuho on $AVGO: key points: 1) We see AVGO with the most-capable TH6/Jericho SerDes/Switch for all-toall 1000-1M XPU networking at 200G/lane, SerDes/ASIC/Packaging dominating GOOGL TPU "training" roadmap at 2-3x ASP ~$15K/ASIC, 2) we believe MTK could potentially win the TPU inference chip, despite investors stating MTK is getting the training chip with large die on EMIB [ $INTC ] packaging, and 3) we see the most probable trajectory of AVGO $GOOGL TPUs ramp to 18M+ units in 2028E with AVGO getting ~50% share at ~10-12M units being 3x the current volume (~4.5M today). We see AVGO has the best perf. training SerDes with MTK SerDes limited and needing GOOGL/SMTC (NC) contribution, with potential delays. We believe the v9/v10 will see a mix of both MTK/AVGO to optimize cost and performance, and see AVGO well-positioned into 2028E with upside to 35M TPU, regardless of training/inference chip share. We also see GOOGL purchase commitments (10Q, p55) are expanding significantly to $800 B+ for TPUs.

Takeaways from the Sept Wrap-Up report - Cautious Market, Intact AI •July was tough; mild recovery through Aug/1H-Sept still felt challenging. Positioning remains cautious despite robust AI-infrastructure demand. Sentiment is more on worst-case capex & monetization fears. •Worst of the pullback looks behind us: positioning cleaned up, Sept rate hike was expected, and recent tech-CEO comments reinforced AI confidence. •Long-term AI/capex: US CSP capex forecast +85% / +45% / +20% YoY for 2026/27/28. CSP balance sheets (ex-Oracle) stay healthy — net leverage ~0.5x, net debt-to-equity only 18% by 2029. •Neoclouds + Nvidia’s $530bn off-balance-sheet backstop = Nvidia wins if demand holds, manageable if it weakens •GPT-6 is a step-up toward AGI: Unlocks monetizable automation across knowledge work, enterprise agents, DevOps/security, synthetic data/RL. •Scaling + inferencing demand continues even as CEOs talk about “pacing the frontier.” •Recent supply tour + SEMICON 2026: bullish on AI infra demand. Tight supply across wafer fab, advanced packaging, memory, LPS, substrate, DSP, etc. Strong backlogs + multi-year visibility. •Still like: NVDA, CPU, UMC/INTC, DRAM/HBM, thermal, interconnect/optics (Credo, SMTC), PCB/PTFE. •August data: TSMC sales +10% MoM (tracking inline). Neoclouds momentum helps OEMs. Substrate upcycle intact, CCL margin expansion. Aspeed +118% YoY with solid 4Q guide / likely BMC price hike. #AI# #Semis# #NVDA# #MU# #TSMC# #capex#

ASIC Warp-Up 📈Stock Picks: maintains a positive view on MRVL, MTK, and Intel following recent earnings, supply chain checks and our recent notes. 👊Nvidia vs. ASIC: Nvidia's CoWoS share at TSM will remain stable in 2027; Nvidia Vera Rubin outperforms competitors in performance/TCO/supply chain. * TPU Dynamics: On June 14 report, we lowered Broadcom's Sunfish volume for 2026/27 due to packaging re-design and set 460k CoWoS (ASIC) in 2027; MTK Humufish (which leads in N2 vs Whalefish) potential launch in 4Q27 suggesting the window for Broadcom’s CoWoS back to TPU could be only in 1H26. Expect Humufish tape-out in around Nov-2026 with a not too high passing rate. * Google Custom Silicon: MRVL expects meaningful contributions from Google CXL and DPU (~$3bn each by 2028), with an MPU start on TSMC N2 yielding $3bn+ in CY28 revenue. * AWS Trainium: Reit MRVL T3 of $1bn/$2bn in CY26/27 and likely >$3bn from T4 in CY28 with a much higher ASP and better NPO scale-up. * Intel Backend Packaging: Reit Intel's FY27/FY28 back-end revenue forecast of $1.1bn/$7bn, supported by AWS T3 EMIB-T and Google Humufish/Triggerfish volumes through 2H27-2028. We expect more wins for U.S. fabless including MSFT, QCOM, MRVL, with products across ASIC, CPU and CPO. ABF substrate to greatly benefit from EMIB. #NVDA# #ASIC# #MRVL# #Mediatek# #SMTC# #INTC# #ABF#

Summary of CPO/NPO Market Update 🚀 NVIDIA CPO: Spectrum-X CPO switches for Scale-out are officially in mass production. Our forecasts: 15k units (2026E) & 100k units (2027E). *Supply Chain: To support the CPO Scale-Out ramp, TSMC has expanded CPO inspection equipment capacity (notably adding Insertion 2/3 capacity), alongside strong progress from key suppliers in FAU, shuffle boxes, and system assembly. * Scale-Up Architecture: Rubin Ultra is now expected to adopt a 9-18-9 tray design. While mechanical challenges from the 0.75U height could potentially lead to a reversion to a 10-9-8. This shift will have no impact on optical engine (OE). 📈 OE Shipments: NVIDIA platform optical engine (OE) shipments expected at 6m (2027E) & 19m (2028E). Total industry-wide OE hitting 11m & 40m. ☁️ Amazon Trainium 4: AWS projected to consume 5m (2H27E) & 12m (2028E) OE units, primarily 6.4T specs. * Trainium 4 will likely have 3 configurations, with two expected to adopt NPO. 💡 Key Plays: LITE/COHR (CW laser upside), Browave (10k+ shuffle box per quarter in 4Q26E, followed by acceleration in 1H27E.), SMTC/MRVL (TIA/Driver), TSEM (NPO PIC exposure). #NVDA# #LITE# #MRVL# #SMTC# #TSEM# #Browave# #CPO# #NPO#

Abstracts of Addressing Recent Debates on LT Capex and NVDA Platform Content Away from Memories • Recent CSP Earnings Review on Capex: Amazon to $220bn, Google $195-205bn, Meta $130-145bn • U.S. CSP capex forecast at $0.8tn/$1.2tn / $1.4tn in 2026/2027/28 (+45% / +20% YoY in 27/28), supported by healthy balance sheets • Capex growth expected to moderate to +20% / +15% YoY in 2028/29 as CSPs prioritize returns & FCF & uncertainties over AI model competition • Top 5 debt issuance seen at $257bn / $419bn in 2026/27 (31-35% of capex), still manageable • Cumulative debt issuance could reach ~$421bn by 2028, yet remains well-supported • Balance sheets stay very healthy (ex-Oracle): net leverage only ~0.5x (EBITDA basis) by 2028/29 • Net debt-to-equity ratio projected at just 18% by 2029 despite heavy capex

• Reiterate our July 2’s report of Nvidia cutting memory: Vera CPU SOCAMM from 192GB → 96GB → selective SKUs to 64GB by 1Q27
• Rubin Ultra HBM stepped down from 384GB to 192GB/256GB (HBM4/4E); 8-Hi design finalized, yet 12-Hi remains on line up
• Competitors already on lower configs: AMD MI450 Custom and Google TPU Humufish already 8-Hi
• Scale-up expanding via NVL576 w NPO optics to offset reduced memory content
• Nvidia platform OE shipments estimated at 5.8m / 8.1m units in 2027/28
• Still positive on AI trends; prefer GPU / CPU / Optics, cautious on memory commodities
 Recommendations: 1) Nvidia GPU: NVDA (Buy), Hon Hai (2317 TT), SMCI (Buy) 2) CPU: INTC (Buy), AMD (Buy), ASE (3711 TT, ASX, Buy) 3) Optics NPO: LITE (Buy), MRVL (Buy), SMTC (Buy), TSEM (Buy), Bizlink (3665 TT Buy), Browave (3163 TT) #capex# #NVDA# #RUBIN# #Memory# #HBM#