#Marvell# pitches #NPO# and #CPO# as pluggables hit scale-up limits: XPUs need ≥16 Tbps each. NPO offers field-replaceable optics, CPO the lowest power and latency. 400G light engines and Photonic Fabric target 2027. 💡More: 🔗 $MRVL

Summary of CPO/NPO Market Update 🚀 NVIDIA CPO: Spectrum-X CPO switches for Scale-out are officially in mass production. Our forecasts: 15k units (2026E) & 100k units (2027E). *Supply Chain: To support the CPO Scale-Out ramp, TSMC has expanded CPO inspection equipment capacity (notably adding Insertion 2/3 capacity), alongside strong progress from key suppliers in FAU, shuffle boxes, and system assembly. * Scale-Up Architecture: Rubin Ultra is now expected to adopt a 9-18-9 tray design. While mechanical challenges from the 0.75U height could potentially lead to a reversion to a 10-9-8. This shift will have no impact on optical engine (OE). 📈 OE Shipments: NVIDIA platform optical engine (OE) shipments expected at 6m (2027E) & 19m (2028E). Total industry-wide OE hitting 11m & 40m. ☁️ Amazon Trainium 4: AWS projected to consume 5m (2H27E) & 12m (2028E) OE units, primarily 6.4T specs. * Trainium 4 will likely have 3 configurations, with two expected to adopt NPO. 💡 Key Plays: LITE/COHR (CW laser upside), Browave (10k+ shuffle box per quarter in 4Q26E, followed by acceleration in 1H27E.), SMTC/MRVL (TIA/Driver), TSEM (NPO PIC exposure). #NVDA# #LITE# #MRVL# #SMTC# #TSEM# #Browave# #CPO# #NPO#

$LITE CEO: "Next year with the advent of CPO and NPO in 2027, our estimates are that we'll be undershipping demand... By 70%. Literally 70%. So we can only supply 30%. And this has caught us by supply. By 2029-2030, we get to some level of balance." Source: Global Photonics Economic Forum Day 1 (7:57:15 - 7:58:00) Any other players with laser capacity coming online are probably going to get more market attention soon.

Research|Optics: ECOC 2026 Takeaways, NPO Gains Momentum as Slow and Wide Takes Shape We attended ECOC 2026 in Málaga last week. The debate between slow and wide and fast and narrow was a recurring topic in presentations and plenary sessions. Companies presented microLED and micro-VCSEL designs and discussed their performance, manufacturing challenges and production timelines. NPO was also in focus, with live NPO demos on the show floor and more discussion of how and when it ramps. This note covers our takeaways from the presentations, demos and conversations with companies, including developments in NPO, scale-in, external lasers, retimers, DSPs, coherent-lite and test and measurement. Detailed Report

Abstract - Semtech (SMTC) Initiated Buy on 1.6T and NPO • Initiates with Buy, $180 PT (25x FY28E P/E). • Transitioning from an analog chip company to an AI interconnect beneficiary w portfolio spanning ACC, TIA, drivers, lasers and NPO analog solutions. • Guides FY27 AI revenue >$350M; we forecast $466M (FY27E) → $1.22B (FY28E), driven by 1.6T. • Google TPU expansion to be a key catalyst for CopperEdge ACC. • NPO adoption could be the next major growth leg beyond 2027 as DSP removal increases analog content. • Believes NVIDIA and leading CSPs are evaluating NPO deployments. • NPO market size : we forecast 38M NPO optical engines in 2028, suggesting a multi-billion-dollar TIA/driver TAM • Acquisition of HieFo strengthens its laser portfolio and expands optical content opportunities. #AI# #Semiconductors# #OpticalNetworking# #SMTC#