$SPX CPI data this Wednesday.
2026 reactions to CPI reports so far:
Oct 14th = ????
Sept 11th = +0.86%
Aug 12th = +0.26%
July 14th = +0.38%
June 10th = -1.62%
May 12th = -0.16%
April 10th = -0.11%
Mar 11th = -0.08%
Feb 13th = +0.05%
Jan 13th = -0.19%
This is what the index closed at the day of the CPI report YTD so far.
3 nice positive reactions in the last 3…
FED’S PAULSON SAYS CPI DATA INDICATES INFLATION IS STILL AN ISSUE, WITH INFLATION OUTLOOK RISKS ELEVATED AND UNDERLYING INFLATION REMAINING BETWEEN 2.5% AND 3%
Today's CPI data is very crucial for the crypto market
At 8:30am ET, CPI data will be released with MoM expectations at 0.3%
If CPI MoM comes higher than 0.3%, the rate hike odds will go up, and we could see another dump
If CPI MoM comes lower than 0.3%, there could be a short squeeze
FED’S GOOLSBEE: CPI DATA “DISCOURAGING”; SERVICE INFLATION A CONCERN, WITH FED FOCUSED ON RETURNING INFLATION TO 2% AND WATCHING THE OVERALL TREND RATHER THAN ONE REPORT.
FED'S GOOLSBEE: CPI DATA WAS 'DISCOURAGING' - YAHOO
FED'S GOOLSBEE: SERVICE INFLATION IN CPI WAS A CONCERN
FED'S GOOLSBEE: KEY TO FOCUS ON TREND OF INFLATION, NOT ONE REPORT
Today’s CPI report could decide whether Friday’s big market move had it right.
Last week’s surprisingly weak jobs report changed the Fed conversation pretty quickly. The U.S. lost 23,000 jobs in July, Treasury yields fell, stocks rallied and traders reduced their expectations for another rate hike.
Now we get the other half of the picture: inflation.
At 8:30 AM ET today, the U.S. releases its CPI data for July, with economists expecting headline inflation around 3.4% year over year and core inflation around 2.5%.
A cooler-than-expected number would fit nicely with what the market has already started pricing in, a hot number would make things much more complicated.
The Fed could find itself looking at a slowing labor market while inflation remains stubbornly high, meaning raising rates risks putting even more pressure on employment, while leaving rates unchanged risks allowing inflation to stick around.
That’s why today’s number matters beyond whether CPI comes in at 3.3%, 3.4% or 3.5%.
We’re starting to get a clearer picture of the two things the Fed cares about most:
Inflation and employment.
Jobs already surprised us.
Now we find out what inflation has to say. 🍿