Gary Black(@garyblack00):US stocks hovered near records ahead of July CPI data, with Fed rate-hike odds easing after weak payrolls. Oil rose on unresolved Strait of Hormuz tensions as Trump favored economic pressure on Iran over strikes. Long duration equities advanced, TSMC posted strong sales, and S&P FY’2026 EPS estimates continued to rise (now +30% YoY to $361, P/E 21.4x) on higher AI investment, though overall valuations offer no equity risk premium versus 10-year treasuries. We remain cautious on $TSLA amid declining long-term earnings estimates, increasing autonomous-vehicle competition, and TSLA’s extended valuation.

2026.08.10 10:00

US stocks hovered near records ahead of July CPI data, with Fed rate-hike odds easing after weak payrolls. Oil rose on unresolved Strait of Hormuz tensions as Trump favored economic pressure on Iran over strikes. Long duration equities advanced, TSMC posted strong sales, and S&P FY’2026 EPS estimates continued to rise (now +30% YoY to $361, P/E 21.4x) on higher AI investment, though overall valuations offer no equity risk premium versus 10-year treasuries. We remain cautious on $TSLA amid declining long-term earnings estimates, increasing autonomous-vehicle competition, and TSLA’s extended valuation.