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At the #ECOC# Exhibition, Lumentum, Qualcomm, and Corning Incorporated are demonstrating a high-density optical die-to-die architecture using 1060 nm VCSELs to support high-bandwidth, low-power, and low-latency links over multimode fiber. The demonstration combines Lumentum's VCSEL platform, Qualcomm's D2D interface technology, and Corning's fiber connectivity - showing a practical path toward compact, energy-efficient optical links for next-generation Al systems. Source: $LITE

The four plenary keynotes at #ECOC# 2026 collectively presented a remarkably coherent technology roadmap. Peter Winzer of Ciena approached the problem from the perspective of AI cluster architecture, examining how the continued expansion of GPU and XPU clusters is forcing optical connectivity closer to compute through scale-up, scale-out, and scale-across architectures. Patrick Vandenameele, CEO of imec, addressed the same challenge from a semiconductor technology perspective, arguing that future AI scaling can no longer rely on CMOS alone. Silicon photonics, 3D integration, advanced packaging, and electronics will increasingly need to evolve as part of a unified technology platform.

optics/AI infrastructure players LONG I never expected ECOC to become this widely discussed. Even when I started on X in 2025, I was surprised by the attention. This year, 2026, feels completely different. So many Substackers and people on X are now covering ECOC announcements and the companies behind them almost in real time. Optical networking and photonics are clearly no longer niche topics.

- $MRVL is demonstrating a 102.4 Tbps CPO platform at ECOC, using 200G/lane silicon photonics, 6.4 Tbps optical engines, and detachable ELSFPs. - The platform directly targets the reach and power limitations of copper as AI scale-up networks expand. > $MRVL is moving beyond traditional networking silicon toward a broader AI connectivity platform spanning custom silicon, SerDes, optical DSPs, silicon photonics, and CPO. > As AI infrastructure scales, $MRVL’s strategic importance could continue to increase.

Weekly|Singapore Gathering, Malaga ECOC Happy Hour, AI Labs Keep Training, Optics Supply Tightens, AIDC Power, CRM Dreamforce, PLTR Sovereign AI, BE First, thank you to everyone who joined our gathering in Singapore this week. Registration and attendance were well beyond our expectations, and the atmosphere was amazing. Members of both our analyst and developer teams were present and had great conversations with investors and industry experts. Next, our analyst Fabian will attend ECOC in Malaga, Spain on Sep 22-23 and will host a happy hour there. Please RSVP if you are interested. Coming back to the market, the AI hardware selloff after Amodei’s call for restraint looked overdone to us, and the subsequent rebound suggests investors are reconsidering what a slowdown would actually mean. We spoke with people at three frontier labs: internal training and compute expansion are continuing, while additional safety checks are more likely to lengthen evaluation and public-release timelines. Safety risks deserve attention, but our base case remains limited disruption to near-term infrastructure demand. The enterprise side helps explain that view. In our 41-company Tokenomics panel, less than 5% of AI spending goes to the most advanced frontier models. Existing deployments can keep expanding as models become cheaper, more reliable, and easier to integrate. Greater scrutiny also creates work for security platforms and identity providers: enterprises need to monitor agents in production, govern what they can access, and retain logs they can trust. Drug discovery gives us another reason to be constructive on AI demand beyond the current enterprise rollout. The Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference commentary points to early spending across the workflow: TMO is already seeing AI-driven high-throughput experiments lift reagent consumption, CRL expects more shots on goal to support preclinical demand, and DHR is seeing early lab-automation adoption. SDGR says pharma AI budgets are increasingly incremental, with BMS an early proof point. Morgan Stanley’s healthcare specialist Dan Bone also highlighted Novo Nordisk’s use of Claude Science for drug-discovery challenges, GenScript’s completion of Lilly’s TuneLab validation loop for wet-lab services, and $290mn of financing for Anew Labs, which spun out of ByteDance’s internal drug-discovery team in June. The rally in names such as TWST shows investors are taking notice. For us, the demand case is that more AI-generated candidates can support repeated rounds of modeling, screening and physical validation, expanding compute use alongside laboratory spending. It is early to size that compute opportunity, but the evidence of incremental budgets and reagent consumption makes drug discovery a credible additional source of AI demand. Physical delivery remains the harder constraint across the infrastructure names we cover. CIOE orders and production schedules extend into 2027, but 3nm DSPs, lasers, and PCBs determine which optics vendors can ship. On power, our follow-up channel work supports 2.4–3.0MW of turbine nameplate per MW of IT for the off-grid designs we examined; that ratio doesn’t apply to the entire turbine market. Oracle’s results reinforce the value of earlier energization for Bloom, with permitting, manufacturing, and service capacity still the key checks. This Week’s Reports AI labs keep training despite the pacing debate. Our interviews point to longer evaluation and release timelines with limited near-term disruption to training investment or enterprise inference demand. Optics: orders extend into 2027, and access to supply determines who delivers. Our conference and CIOE notes track higher laser pricing, tight 3nm DSP capacity and the NPO/CPO ramp, with leading vendors best placed to turn strong demand into shipments. AIDC: nameplate capacity needs to be translated into dependable IT power. We answer six investor questions with new channel checks and a rebuilt off-grid sizing framework, separating redundancy, site derating and project readiness from headline turbine supply. Cybersecurity: AI safety concerns strengthen the case for platform and identity security. Our note maps the gaps exposed by agent incidents to runtime monitoring, non-human identity governance, isolation, vulnerability management and tamper-resistant logs. Premium Report Snapshot A portion of our research is reserved for Premium subscribers and is not distributed via Substack. Below is a snapshot of what Premium subscribers received this week beyond the Substack feed. Research | CRM: Dreamforce Clarifies Claudeforce Monetization as Salesforce Cedes the UI Deep | PLTR: Sovereign AI Expands the Opportunity; Partner Delivery Sets the Long-Term Ceiling Research & Roadshow | BE: Oracle Reinforces the Time-to-Power Thesis; Delivery Remains the Test Weekly Expert Interviews Summary A snapshot of the expert interviews we conducted during the past week is below; full transcripts and takeaways are available on the FUNDA platform. Meta: Muse Monetization and Advertising Share (META, GOOGL) Enterprise AI: Token Budgets and Model Routing (GOOGL) Microsoft: Internal AI Spend and Usage Mix (MSFT) RoboSoft: Workflow Automation and AI Spend Growth LendingClub: Production AI and Model Routing (LC, AMZN) Delta: Vertical Power Supply Bottlenecks and 800V Architecture (FLEX, GOOGL, MPWR, META) Vicor: Vertical Power Economics at Very High Current (VICR, NVDA) Detailed Report

So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry: Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated: - $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially. - NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products) - Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply). Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers. - "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the second half of 2026", with meaningful revenue contribution likely coming in 2027 and 2028. - Win has strengthened inventory management for InP substrates while moving toward 6-in InP wafers for ongoing process testing. Currently relies on Tier-1 International suppliers. - Many of this was spent on DUV tools from $ASML but (Win Semi's orders spanned machinery, equipment, and fab engineering work) So that answers a lot of questions about Sivers' partner "how is this company securing InP substrates", "4in vs 6in", "production timing" TLDR: - NPO > CPO (per Lite), multi-wavelength lasers going brrr for prices - demand > supply (continuation) - Not sure why people have been bear posting Win Semi when turns out they have everything needed to mass produce CW lasers.

If there is one sentence that captures the industry direction revealed by the first group of papers at #ECOC# 2026, it is this: the most important change is no longer simply pushing optical communications from 800G to 1.6T, and then from 1.6T to 3.2T. Instead, the industry is beginning to confront a much broader question: as each lane becomes faster, optical engines move closer to compute silicon, and the number of fibers continues to increase, how can the entire system still be manufactured at scale while keeping power consumption, yield, packaging complexity, testing requirements, and cost under control? This is what makes ECOC 2026 particularly important.