The ECB decides today. But the real question isn't just what they do — it's how every major central bank responds to an energy shock none of them saw coming. Günter Grimm @GFXFTs and Beat Nussbaumer @MacrobeatL join LiveSquawk Market Talk to set up the decision, the connotations, and what it means for the BoE and FOMC next. Episode dropping ahead of the announcement. Don't miss it. 🎧 YouTube: 🎧 Spotify: #ECB# #CentralBanks# #EnergyShock# #Macro# #LiveSquawk#

IRAN THREATENS SECOND GLOBAL ENERGY CHOKEPOINT Iran has reportedly told Yemen’s Houthis to be ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the U.S. strikes Iranian power infrastructure, according to Reuters sources. With the Strait of Hormuz already shut, a disruption in the Red Sea would hit the Middle East’s two main oil export routes simultaneously, raising the risk of a severe global energy shock. Sources say the Houthis have positioned missiles and drones near the Red Sea gateway and are awaiting orders. Saudi Arabia is reportedly treating the threat seriously as tensions between Tehran and Washington continue to escalate.

The 2022 energy shock massively accelerated nearly every major weakness in the European economic model. Before the war: → ~55% of German gas imports came from Russia → The eurozone ran a current account surplus of roughly ~3% of GDP → Germany’s industrial model depended on cheap imported energy + export manufacturing → Europe imported nearly 60% of its total energy needs from abroad Even in 2025–2026: → EU industrial electricity prices remained over 2x U.S. levels for energy-intensive sectors → The eurozone current account collapsed from a pre-war surplus of roughly ~3% of GDP into near-balance/deficit in 2022, before only partially recovering to ~1.7–2.0% by 2025 → German industry continued facing structural stagnation, weak industrial output and competitiveness pressure Europe’s long-term priority must be energy sovereignty through electrification, renewables, nuclear, storage, hydrogen and pan-European grid interconnections to reduce external energy dependence well below 25% over the next 15–20 years. This is why Europe’s single most important long-term strategic priority is energy sovereignty. There is no more fundamental issue than this.