🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: US PPI, Fed Speakers, Schnabel and Nagel
October's producer prices, out at 14:30 CET, may tip money markets further towards a half-point Fed hike in December.
Four Fed officials speak within hours of the release, and their reading of it could shift the front end of the Treasury curve.
In Europe, two hawkish Governing Council members speak as money markets price in a 93% chance of a 25-basis-point ECB hike on 17 December.
Also on the calendar: France and Spain publish final October inflation at 08:45 and 09:00 CET. The euro area's second estimate of third-quarter GDP is due at 11:00 CET, and Canada's September manufacturing sales follow at 14:30 CET.
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🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: Nvidia Turmoil Drags Nasdaq Futures as Yen Nears Intervention Levels
🤖 US technology futures fell after reports that Nvidia's board is preparing to oust chief executive Jensen Huang.
🇯🇵 The yen hovered near the level that preceded intervention this summer, after Japan's top currency official warned that recent moves had been too fast.
🏭 Japan's producer prices rose faster than expected in October, and BoJ board member Asada said the terminal rate could be higher than he first thought.
🏦 Fed officials Bowman, Paulson and Goolsbee pointed to persistent inflation, with a December hike fully priced.
🛢️ Oil eased as OPEC output rose strongly in October, while Iran ruled out sending its enriched uranium abroad.
🇪🇺 France signalled support for Spain's Pablo Hernández de Cos as the next ECB president.
Today's Macro Roadmap: UK GDP is due at 08:00 CET, US initial jobless claims are due at 14:30 CET, US existing home sales are due at 16:00 CET, and ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks in Paris at 20:30 CET.
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🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: UK GDP, US Jobless Claims and Lagarde
UK third-quarter GDP at 08:00 CET could test how long the BoE can wait before hiking again, with money markets pricing in a 72% chance of a move on 17 December.
Five Fed officials speak two days after October's consumer prices rose 0.4% m/m, and their tone could shape bets on a half-point hike in December.
Christine Lagarde closes the day in Paris at 20:30 CET, after the ECB's Economic Bulletin at 10:00 CET sets out the analysis behind its October hold.
Also on the calendar: Sweden publishes final October inflation data at 08:00 CET, the US Energy Information Administration releases weekly oil inventories at 18:00 CET, and the US Treasury sells 30-year bonds at 19:00 CET.
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🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: Hot US CPI Lifts Fed Hike Bets as Asian Tech Stocks Rally
🇺🇸 US core inflation beat forecasts for a third month, hours after Fed Governor Waller said such a reading would put a half-point December hike up for consideration.
🏦 Fed officials Logan and Goolsbee, the BoE's Lombardelli and the ECB's Lane and Nagel all pointed to further rate increases.
🌏 Asian technology stocks extended their rebound, led by South Korea's Kosdaq, after CoreWeave raised its revenue forecast.
🤖 Nvidia extended its slide as the company investigates chief executive Jensen Huang's relationship with an alleged Chinese spy.
🛢️ Oil rose after a two-day fall as attacks on Gulf shipping offset hopes for a truce with Iran, and Waller warned that diesel prices may not ease as readily as crude.
🇯🇵 Japanese government bond yields rose, tracking the selloff in Treasuries after the US inflation report.
Today's Macro Roadmap: ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone speaks at 08:50 CET, ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks speaks at 09:10 CET, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks at 09:15 CET, ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at 10:45 CET, and US MBA mortgage applications are due at 13:00 CET.
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🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: Asian Stocks Extend Tech Rebound, Oil Falls Before US CPI
🌏 Asian stocks extended their rebound, led by South Korea, after US benchmarks had their best session in about seven months.
🛢️ Oil fell further after President Trump said new strikes on Iran do not seem necessary, but Tehran dismissed reports of talks as fake news.
🇺🇸 Trump said the FBI is looking into Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang's relationship with a suspected Chinese spy.
🤖 Anthropic retracted the IPO pricing details it had sent to bankers, Reuters said.
🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions showed many board members see a near-term rate rise as necessary, and household spending fell by the most since 2020.
🇨🇳 China's trade surplus for the year passed $1 trillion, despite the biggest surge in imports since 2021.
Today's Macro Roadmap: Norway's inflation data is due at 08:00 CET, BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks at 09:30 CET, Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 10:00 CET, the US NFIB small-business survey is due at 12:00 CET, US CPI is due at 14:30 CET, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at 16:50 CET, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speaks at 17:45 CET, the US sells 10-year notes at 19:00 CET, the BoC publishes its summary of deliberations at 19:30 CET, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at 19:30 CET, and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks at 21:30 CET.
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🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: US and Norway CPI, Fed and BoE Speakers
US inflation data at 14:30 CET could decide whether money markets keep pricing in an 81% chance of a Fed hike on 9 December.
Norway's October inflation at 08:00 CET could bring a December hike by Norges Bank back into play.
Twelve central bankers speak, and the Fed and BoE officials among them could move rate expectations as much as the data.
Also on the calendar: Japan's September current account is due at 00:50 CET, and the US NFIB small-business survey is due at 12:00 CET. The US Treasury sells 10-year notes at 19:00 CET.
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🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: Asian Stocks Rebound, Oil Falls on Trump's Iran Comments
🌏 Asian stocks rebounded from their biggest selloff in more than 18 months, led by Taiwan after authorities curbed short selling.
🇺🇸 Nvidia's board opened a probe into whether chief executive Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort.
🛢️ Oil fell after President Trump said further strikes on Iran are highly unlikely if talks progress, but Marco Rubio sees no breakthrough.
🏦 Fed officials stayed firm on inflation after strong US payrolls, and ECB President Lagarde signalled that a December rate rise remains on track.
🇨🇦 Canada lost jobs for a third straight month, and the Canadian dollar had its worst week since September.
🇨🇳 China's producer prices rose at the fastest pace since June 2022, while consumer inflation slowed.
Today's Macro Roadmap: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks at 14:40 CET, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 16:00 CET. ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone speaks at 17:00 CET, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks at 18:15 CET, and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at 18:25 CET.
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🚨 GGMA Weekend Headlines: Trump Weighs Iran Options as Lagarde Sees Inflation Staying High
🇮🇷 President Trump's advisers are split between ending the Iran war and resuming strikes, the WSJ reports. Qatar is mediating a deal that would move almost immediately into nuclear talks.
☢️ Iran is handing out iodine tablets near its nuclear sites amid fears of a US strike on Pickaxe Mountain, the Times reports. Tehran is also in talks with Moscow on Russian S-400 air defences, according to the Telegraph.
🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde says inflation will stay high in the coming quarters. She would not commit to a December rate increase, but said it would take "significant changes" to alter the direction of travel.
🏦 ECB candidate Pablo Hernández de Cos urges vigilance on inflation risks. Euro-area finance ministers discuss him and Klaas Knot on Monday.
🇺🇸 San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly says the Fed will likely need to raise rates further to bring inflation down, and called the tech-stock repricing "painful" but orderly, Reuters reports.
🇨🇳 China's central bank bought gold for a 24th straight month, adding 830,000 ounces in October.
💻 Microsoft is winding down a deal to rent AI cloud capacity from Oracle, Bloomberg reports.
🔍 China's spy agency recruited a businesswoman who targeted Nvidia's Jensen Huang, the New York Times reports. House committees have asked him to brief them.
🇦🇺 Australian auction clearance rates rose to 51.5% from a six-year low, according to Cotality.
📊 Weekend prices on Hyperliquid perpetual futures, Sunday 20:46 CET (change over 24 hours | over two days, since Friday 20:00 CET):
S&P 500 7,398 (+0.2% | -0.2%)
Nasdaq 100 27,048 (+0.3% | -0.2%)
Brent $96.59 (-0.9% | -1.0%)
WTI $89.74 (-0.7% | -0.6%)
Gold $4,066 (-0.2% | -0.3%)
EUR/USD 1.1163 (+0.1% | +0.1%)
USD/JPY 158.38 (+0.1% | +0.1%)
Bitcoin $75,898 (+0.2% | +0.2%)
China publishes October CPI and PPI at 02:30 CET on Monday. US CPI on Tuesday is seen rising 0.3% m/m in a Bloomberg survey, the last reading before the Fed's December meeting.
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The US jobs report lands today at 14:30 CET, and markets react within seconds. GGMA Squawk & Chat calls out the market-moving headlines live, with LiveSquawk's audio, our macro desk and a members' chat, on desktop and on the iPhone.
30-second look:
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🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: AI Rout Spreads to Asia as Hedge Funds Cut Risk
🌏 The AI-led stock selloff spread to Asia, and Japan's Nikkei had its biggest one-day loss since April 2025.
🇺🇸 Thursday's rout wiped a record amount off the Nasdaq 100 after voters backed limits on data centres.
💼 Hedge funds are unwinding crowded trades after a bruising October.
🇯🇵 Japanese wages rose at the fastest pace since 1997. In our view, that supports a BoJ rate rise in December.
🛢️ Oil extended its rebound as traders weighed the outlook for an end to the war in the Middle East.
Today's Macro Roadmap: New York Fed President John Williams and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speak at 10:30 CET, and euro-area retail sales are due at 11:00 CET. The US and Canadian jobs reports land at 14:30 CET, and the University of Michigan's sentiment index follows at 16:00 CET.
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🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: US & Canada Jobs Reports and Fed Speakers
The US jobs report at 14:30 CET could decide whether money markets keep pricing in a 79% chance of a Fed hike in December.
Canada's report lands at the same minute and could tip the Bank of Canada's December decision, priced at 47% for a hike.
Fed officials react in real time, and their split could move Treasury yields.
Also on the calendar: German industrial production is due at 08:00 CET, and SNB foreign currency reserves are due at 09:00 CET. Euro-area retail sales follow at 11:00 CET, the Canadian Ivey PMI is due at 16:00 CET, and US consumer credit follows at 21:00 CET.
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🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: BoE & Norges Bank Decisions and ECB Speakers
I will be travelling tomorrow, so there won't be a Morning Brief.
The Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4.00% at 13:00 CET, its first hike in over three years, and the vote split could move gilts.
Central bankers speak 13 times, and the afternoon in Zurich could move rate expectations.
Norges Bank is expected to hold at 4.50%, and Swedish CPIF inflation is seen easing to 1.4% y/y from 1.5%, a day after the Riksbank's hike.
Also on the calendar: German factory orders are due at 08:00 CET, the UK construction PMI follows at 10:30 CET, and euro-area producer prices are due at 11:00 CET. Canada presents its federal budget, and Airbnb and Atlassian report after the US close.
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🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: Stocks and Dollar Slip as Democrats Sweep Congress
🇺🇸 Democrats won both chambers of Congress, sending US stock futures and the dollar lower and Treasuries higher.
💻 Technology led the losses after Texas's governor-elect called for a moratorium on new data centres.
🇳🇿 New Zealand's jobless rate rose more than expected. In our view, that eases the pressure on the RBNZ to hike.
🛢️ Oil edged higher as Iran and the US reviewed fresh mediator proposals after limited US strikes.
🥇 Gold rallied as the dollar and Treasury yields fell.
Today's Macro Roadmap: Sweden's Riksbank decides at 09:30 CET, and euro-area flash inflation is due at 11:00 CET. In the US, ADP payrolls follow at 14:15 CET, the Treasury's refunding statement is due at 14:30 CET, and the ISM services index is due at 16:00 CET.
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🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: Riksbank, Euro-Area Inflation, ISM and ADP
Economists expect Sweden's Riksbank to lift its policy rate to 2.00% at 09:30 CET, its first hike since 2023, and its guidance for December could move the krona.
Annual euro-area inflation is expected to rise to 4.0% from 3.8% at 11:00 CET, above the ECB's projected peak of 3.6%, with money markets pricing in an 87% chance of a December hike.
In the US, ADP payrolls at 14:15 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 CET test the 77% chance of a Fed hike in December.
Also on the calendar: The final services PMIs are out from 09:55 CET, the US trade balance and the Treasury's refunding plans follow at 14:30 CET, and Brazil's central bank decides at 22:30 CET. Uber and McDonald's report before the US open, Qualcomm and Arm after the close.
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The first US midterm returns land from midnight CET, and markets will react before Europe wakes up. I've built GGMA Squawk & Chat for nights like this: LiveSquawk audio, our macro desk and a members' chat. 30 days free, no credit card details needed:
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🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: Asian Chip Stocks Slide as RBA Hikes and Signals a Pause
🇦🇺 The RBA raised its cash rate to 4.85%, an 18-year high, in a split vote, and Governor Bullock signalled a pause.
📉 Asian chip stocks slid after the Nasdaq 100 entered a correction, led by South Korea's Kospi.
🇨🇳 The yuan ended its longest winning streak since 1996 after the PBOC raised the foreign-exchange reserve ratio.
🛢️ Oil steadied after Monday's sharp drop on hopes of US-Iran talks.
🇺🇸 Americans vote in the midterm elections, with control of Congress at stake.
Today's Macro Roadmap: Swiss CPI is due at 08:30 CET, US JOLTS job openings follow at 16:00 CET, New Zealand's labour market report is out at 22:45 CET, and the first US midterm polls close at midnight CET.
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🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: RBA Decision, Swiss CPI, JOLTS, NZ Jobs & Midterms
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lift its cash rate to 4.85% at 04:30 CET, and money markets price in an 82% chance.
Americans vote in the midterm elections, and the results arrive overnight.
New Zealand's jobs report closes the day, with unemployment expected to ease to 5.5% from 5.6%.
Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Swiss inflation comes out at 08:30 CET, US durable goods and factory orders follow at 16:00 CET, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem testifies from 17:00 CET. AMD reports after the US close.
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🚨 GGMA Markets Briefing: Oil Falls on Iran Diplomacy as Stocks Steady After Tech Rout
🇫🇷 Fitch kept France at A+ but cut its outlook to negative, citing weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and a wider deficit.
🛢️ Oil fell after a report that Trump wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before potentially resuming strikes.
🇺🇸 Fed officials kept hikes in play before today's ISM factory survey, with St. Louis Fed President Musalem saying more firming will be necessary soon.
🇨🇳 China's central bank began daily operations at its new key rate, set below the old benchmark, after factory activity shrank.
🇰🇷 South Korea's chip exports rose again in October, extending the boom despite last week's tech rout.
🇦🇺 The RBA is expected to raise rates to 4.85% on Tuesday, the highest in 18 years, as house prices keep falling.
Today's Macro Roadmap: The Swiss manufacturing PMI is due at 09:30 CET, the final euro-area PMI follows at 10:00 CET, and the US ISM manufacturing index is out at 16:00 CET. ECB Vice-President Boris Vujčić speaks in Dublin at 10:45 CET, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee moderates a discussion at 17:15 CET. Apple reports after the US close, and Berkshire Hathaway is expected to report today.
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🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: ISM, Fed and ECB Speakers
Price pressure in US factories is the thread to follow.
Australia's inflation gauge is the last reading before Tuesday's RBA decision, and money markets already price an 80% chance of a rise to 4.85%.
Six central bankers speak after last week's Fed and ECB decisions to hold.
Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Australian building approvals come out at 01:30 CET, German retail sales at 08:00 CET and US construction spending at 16:00 CET, alongside the final manufacturing PMIs from Asia to the US. Apple and Palantir report after the US close.
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🚨 GGMA Macro Roadmap: FOMC Meeting in Focus Alongside Australian CPI, BOC and RBNZ Rate Decisions
Overnight, Australia's inflation data could decide whether the RBA raises rates again next week.
Central banks are expected to raise rates, and Canada's is the closer call for its currency.
The Fed is expected to hold, and its December guidance matters most for two-year yields (if any; note that Warsh strongly opposes forward guidance): Economists see the range staying at 3.75-4.00% at 19:00 CET, and traders price in an 81% chance of a December increase.
Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Germany's GfK consumer confidence comes out at 08:00 CET, the UK Budget and US goods trade at 13:30 CET and US crude inventories at 15:30 CET, with Microsoft and Alphabet after the US close.
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