GS: 60% of S&P 500 companies have beaten consensus EPS expectations by more than one standard deviation of analyst estimates, above the historical average of 50% but down from 64% over the past 4 quarters.

GS Hedge Fund VIP Basket relative to the SPX down 2.6% today and since the peak at the end of Q2 the 75 day rate of change is now the worst since the weeks after Lehman Bankruptcy. This is just equities. Add in the pain in fixed income from Coreweave fallout last week and French bonds every day and hedge fund deleveraging contagion continues. All with positive breadth today and 12 of the last 16 as the unwind of concentration isn't stopping yet.

GS Prime Brokerage shows 9 of the 10 most-shorted US IG bonds are long-dated META, NVDA, ORCL, GOOGL and "SPCX" paper. CoreWeave's 9¼% 2030s are the #1# most-shorted HY bond. Oracle has the largest IG market value on loan.

GS mid-day wrap: While equities have been resilient amidst higher rates, we are starting to see some cracks in the credit space. Hyperscaler CDS is most impacted and trading 2-4bps wider, underperforming unch’d QQQs. Names in this space have been very active on the issuance front as yields trend higher and we expect this issuance to continue in the coming weeks, driving the wider spreads.

GS sees US BTM going from ~2-3 GW in 2026 to ~30+ GW by 2030. Need to get +7-8GW/yr from BTM. Good luck and we shall see but 2027-2028 is going to be the big test period for all these forecasts. Either showcase we can build things quickly and that this time is different, or bottlenecks force a slowdown.

GS mid-day summary Overall activity levels remain subdued – our desk is a 3 out of 10. LOs are -10% better for sale led by macro products and Semis HFs are -8% better for sale with a noticeable increase in software shorts today