Affordability is about more than inflation. It’s about whether the economic system still provides a path to prosperity. France shows the pressure on households. Microsoft shows how AI could accelerate the divide between labor and capital. Why Jeff Booth’s thesis, sovereign debt, and Bitcoin are all connected. My latest paper: The Price of Abundance.

The average 14 day RSI of the AI agentic 100 portfolio closed Friday below the July Situational Awareness lows. Tomorrow at 7:45 I will put out a technical video rundown to start the week on the index to look at the reset indicators and the oversold readings.

AI Bubble Burst? Bitcoin to Zero? Hedge Funds Wrecked? Sounds Like a Bottom is Near In this week's video: On many measures this is one of the largest hedge fund equity deleveraging events in the last 30 years without economic deleveraging. For equities parallels to the 2007 Quant Quake are striking. AI positions built over 18 months are being unwound in 75 days. This is concentration rather than factors. But here's what matters: Corporate profits are still growing ~20% YoY. AI compute demand continues to exceed supply. The S&P 500 has barely moved despite the liquidation. Contagion has spread into credit, multistrats, and European bonds. This is hedge fund deleveraging, NOT economic deleveraging. And I believe based on positioning we're in the final innings. I also cover why AI is accelerating breakthroughs in healthcare, why cybersecurity could drive tokenization, and why the convergence of AI and crypto is just beginning. The world is changing faster than traditional leverage and risk management can handle. The real bubble may have been in the assumption that investors still had time.

GS Hedge Fund VIP Basket relative to the SPX down 2.6% today and since the peak at the end of Q2 the 75 day rate of change is now the worst since the weeks after Lehman Bankruptcy. This is just equities. Add in the pain in fixed income from Coreweave fallout last week and French bonds every day and hedge fund deleveraging contagion continues. All with positive breadth today and 12 of the last 16 as the unwind of concentration isn't stopping yet.

On June 4th, I published a paper titled, The Fireworks Show is Over regarding the AI infrastructure trade arguing from here, it would follow the Nvidia stuck in mud frustrating grind higher. On June 5th, I published this piece on Eli Lilly with these words. "I want to make sure my feelings on the importance of this paper are clear with some extreme hot takes to start. First, I believe by the end of this decade, Eli Lilly could be the largest company in the US. Second, Eli Lilly is the becoming the most important AI company in the world." Eli Lilly is about to make new all time highs. It is on pace for its 10th double digit positive year in a row with a CAGR of 30+% over the 10 years. The S&P 1500 Pharma, Biotech and Life Science index is making new 52 week highs today and up 21% since June 5th as the Fireworks in picks and shovels has spread to longevity. As I show every week in the videos, the science inflection point from agents swarms working together on the worlds most important problems is where we are in the exponential. This includes, embodied AI and longevity AI. 2027 will be the year of cures and science shock and awe from AI. Don't get caught listening to the "AI Bubble" echo chamber. Billions of Einsteins working together on the worlds great problems or worrying about whether Coreweave will be ok in 5 years. Hmmm.

AI bubble unwind or hedge fund leverage bubble unwind? Exponential progress vs fixed drawdown triggers, monthly liquidity, factor risk management based on factors disrupted by AI and covariance risk matrices based on correlations and volatility pre AI leads to a structural market change. Add in agentic trading and get ready for 24/7 tokenization! This is just the beginning.

As hedge funds continue to be forced into deleveraging with rising AI risk premium driving vol higher, agentic commerce and tokenization continue to rise with parabolic growth. As Stripe's John Collison said, agentic commerce went "vertical." This weekend's tokenized AI stock fall was a major crossover point for tokenization impact to Wall Street. I go through all of this and Bessent's next possible intervention in a subscriber video release today at 3pm.

Did the AI bubble didn't pop or did Hedge fund leverage The S&P is 2.7% off all-time highs. If the AI bubble did pop, everyone is getting an amazing opportunity to short a bubble at the highs which would be a first for me. This is just the beginning of a long recognition of the change in the AI market structure where concentration and crowdedness collide where there is visibility of orders out to 2030 but uncertainty of terminal value for everything more than three years ahead with exponential change. AI progress drives revenues and progress is accelerating but PEs are contracting and risk premium is rising for all long duration assets on the back of uncertainty. This reminds me of LTCM. Certainty of the thesis but a lot of time to hold the trades vs investors and lenders interested in monthly returns. Hoodies up! Watch here: For Subscriber Info visit or Contact Mark Whaling @ mwhaling@22vresearch.com

Bubble fears sparked a wave of “the bubble popped” takes. What’s actually appears to be popping is hedge fund leverage. AI keeps advancing at a pace that makes the future genuinely uncertain. @elonmusk has long said abundance is coming. That abundance hurts the terminal value of nearly every company by collapsing scarcity and pricing power. Markets are finally starting to adjust to that. Pomp and I talk about it all this week as well as BTC continuing to disconnect from tech.

I have had a great time joining many podcasts this year but this one with Alex Thorn at Galaxy was one of my favorites. We go deep into the merge of AI and digital assets and what the next year will look like as tokenization changes the world.

Two years ago, I launched my YouTube channel to help people navigate the coming disruption from the convergence of AI and crypto into the world we knew. The mission was simple: Signal — separate facts from noise with data Alpha — focus on agentic compute and crypto Agency — help people use AI tools to grow with exponential reality Over those two years, one form of noise has been constant: “AI is a bubble.” This week was no exception. This week’s video is about climbing the AI Wall of Worry and why the ride is just be starting. Thank you to everyone who has subscribed and joined the growing community on this journey of personal growth and empowerment. Please forward this to anyone trying to learn, adapt, and prepare for what is coming next. Thins are accelerating and not being ready is not an option if you want to thrive in the new world. Climb now! Watch:

this week's episode goes into the AI agent led bankpocalypse through the pressure for legacy bank spreads and settlement advantages, while at the same time driving the next crypto cycle through demand for compute, stablecoins, tokenization, and Bitcoin. The world of slow GDP with middlemen taking spreads moves to a high speed small spread world.

Thanks to @APompliano and the team at the Sylvia event today. A special thanks for the community who invited me to dinner tonight. Next time. As promised, a photo of the shrimp and lump crab with uni butter sauce and cavatelli I made that prevented me from joining. You are the best. See you soon.

EQ weight SPX vs SPX has been in a bear market since tech began to dominate the weightings in the exponential age. The best buy signal for the SPX since 2016 has been when the EQ weight SPX gets a MACD crossover after 20 or more negative days which will likely happen today. The SPX was up 22 of 22 times this occurred over the next 6 months for avg of 10%.

My good friend is publishing his book today. The introduction begins with a line: “A single idea can change your life.” In a world where people spend too much time judging others, arguing about what is wrong, and reacting to the noise around them, I love the philosophical simplicity of that thought. Progress starts with an idea, not certainty, not consensus, and rarely approval from everyone else. The best books don't just give you answers. They give you an idea you carry with you long after you finish reading. Congratulations, my friend. I hope this book puts a few of those ideas into the world.

In this week’s video: Why rates and breadth are just the latest noise distracting investors from the bigger shifts underway. Why consumer AI agents are the next major inflection point in compute demand. Why crypto rails are needed as agents become economic actors. And the question to think about for the next AI disruption: Is the Bankpocalypse beginning? Watch: