History suggests US stocks are poised for weakness as the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, but investors trying to gauge the ultimate market fallout are focused on how aggressively the central bank hikes and the economy's response

History will judge those in power who threw open our borders, smuggled in rapists, sacrificed British women and girls, and laid on a police escort for invaders in Portsmouth. All while crushing dissent from their own people. They will soon face a reckoning.

History has a habit of humiliating people who are too confident about the limits of tomorrow. I understand why leaders in AI have to publicly tell you that there will be all these new jobs, because obviously telling you the truth, which is that the vast majority of white-collar jobs will go away, very soon, sounds scary, and the public will have a bad reaction to that. While hiding it might be optimal in the short term, in the long term, it’s what the people need to hear. I hold a title as a director of operations at a very large company, over a trillion-dollar market cap. We currently have zero plans for post-AGI hiring. In fact, we plan on keeping most employees working reduced (hands on) hours and mainly overseeing AI and maintaining human relationships. I don’t consider this a whistleblow or fearmongering. This is the future that I want, and I think it is important to tell you the truth, as someone who oversees a large department of people and a lot of the future plans for the company. I really hope that leaders in AI can focus on economic legislation and planning for the post-AGI future, rather than telling people all these new wonderful jobs will come and that hiring is high right now. We can circle back to this post when we do get a true form of Deepminds AGI definition in 2028–2029 when it is able to replace human workers on long-horizon tasks over years and continuously learn on the job. There will be massive layoffs or a complete freeze of hiring for a lot of software based companies. From a unit economics perspective, it makes no sense to continue hiring humans who actually might make the system more inefficient long term. Once the marginal cost of competent cognitive labor falls dramatically below the cost of human labor, I can’t see why businesses wouldn’t have a strong incentive to substitute capital for labor unless humans provide some unique complementary value that AGI cannot replicate. Outside of roles where the human relationship itself is part of the product or service, I have not seen what that thing is. Everyone has heard the old adage that, historically, technology destroys a task and creates new ones, and then we automate the other ones and our lives get better. However, this is obviously different when the thing you’re automating is the cognitive capacity of the human itself. I am open to people disagreeing with me. I’m just noting that at our company, we see the post-AGI future, and there is no influx of new jobs that we can currently see coming from it. But who knows? There really might be some unique form, some unique challenge that takes place on the computer, digitally, that you just need the human there for. I have not heard what that thing is. But if we’re unable to come up with one soon, I suggest we all stop saying that there’s going to be a bunch of new white-collar jobs, accept what’s coming, and actually try to help those that will be displaced by AGI and give them a better life than what they would have had working in the office.

History suggests volatility is ahead. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has fallen ~55% of the time in September, making it the only month of the year when negative returns have occurred more often than positive returns. Over this period, the average return of the index has been -1.1%, with an average drawdown of -4.7%. Furthermore, the best September recorded a +14.4% gain, while the worst saw a -29.9% decline. The weakness has historically been concentrated later in the month, with the second half of September averaging a -0.9% return, making it the weakest 2-week period of the year. By comparison, the first half has seen an average decline of -0.2%. September has historically been a weak month for US stocks.