History suggests US stocks tend to deliver strong gains in the year after midterm elections, but with bubble fears flaring up, Violeta Todorova of Leverage Shares explains why 'buy the dip' will continue to be the dominant investing trend

History suggests US stocks tend to deliver strong gains in the year after midterm elections, but with bubble fears flaring up, Violeta Todorova of Leverage Shares explains why 'buy the dip' will continue to be the dominant investing trend

History says last week's drop was a buying opportunity. On Thursday, the S&P 500 declined -4.4%, its largest daily drop since April 2025. Before that day, the index recorded 56 one-day declines of at least -4.0% since 1952. Following such drops, the S&P 500 has gained +1.0% on average over the next week. By comparison, its average weekly return across all periods has been +0.2%. Over the next month, the index has averaged a gain of +2.0%, compared with +0.8% across all periods. Over the following 3 months, the S&P 500 has averaged +6.7%, more than triple the historical average of +2.2%. History suggests the market is set for a meaningful rebound.

HISTORY FOR EAST TEXAS A&M ‼️ The 28.5-point underdog stuns Oklahoma for its first-ever win against a power conference opponent. It's the second-largest point-spread DI upset of the past 30 years 😮

History shows that the higher nominal yields go, the more correlated bond and equity returns become. Makes sense since the risk asset must compete against the risk-free asset. In the chart below I show the 10-year yield on the horizontal axis and the 2-year (104-week) correlation of equity and bond returns on the vertical. The size of the dots shows the 13-week correlation to highlight periods when secular regimes of positive correlations are interrupted by short bouts of negative correlations. At 5% we are currently in the “low positive” correlation regime, not unlike the late 1990’s. That suggests to me that the current growth scare (which has produced a negative 13-week correlation) will ultimately give way to the prevailing trend of positive correlation.

History was made: 406 S&P 500 members rose on Thursday even as the index fell 0.3%. In Bloomberg’s advance-decline data going back to 1996, the index has closed higher on all 987 previous sessions with at least 400 gainers, with a median gain of 1.3%.

History says #FOMC# days move $BTC. 12h after a decision, the median move has been ~2.5x a normal day. Options are pricing tonight about like any other day, and next week a touch higher. Data from Binance Spot and Binance Options 👇