AI is real. But the LLM-token economy still looks like a bubble. The money flow is simple: Enterprise → LLM → GPU → Memory Investors are moving upstream in search of certainty. No one knows which AI app will win, so they buy the LLM labs. No one knows whether OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, or xAI will win, so they buy NVIDIA. No one knows how durable GPU demand is, so they buy memory. Every layer looks safer than the one below it. But that certainty is an illusion. The entire chain is still funded by the layer closest to real ROI. Enterprises pay for tokens because they are trying to prove LLM adoption works. But so far, LLM productivity gains have not clearly translated into revenue growth. Consumers are not obviously buying more. Expenses are not obviously falling either. Most AI-related layoffs look more like companies using LLMs to rationalize previous overhiring. The layoffs truly driven by “AI efficiency” often create backlash, operational problems, or quality issues. When hallucination is still unsolved, critical work still needs human supervision. So the economics are awkward: no obvious revenue lift, no obvious expense reduction, and a new token bill on top. Meanwhile, customers are not receiving much of the surplus. They are not getting better products at lower prices. They are getting higher prices, worse content, and weaker job security. Personally, I hate this most when I see gaming consoles getting more expensive, PCs getting more expensive, Macs getting more expensive, and the internet filling up with lower-quality AI slop. If consumers do not spend more, the companies selling to them cannot justify ever-growing LLM expenses. And enterprises do not need to abandon LLMs for the chain to break. They only need to slow the growth of LLM spending.

Less than a year after Mark Walter paid $10 billion for the Los Angeles Lakers’, he flipped it like a piece of real estate. But if there is a bubble for professional sports team ownership, it hasn’t shown any signs of popping yet. Read more about how the Lakers' record $12.5 billion sale resets the market for sports teams:

Less than a year after Mark Walter paid $10 billion for the Los Angeles Lakers’, he flipped it like a piece of real estate. But if there is a bubble for professional sports team ownership, it hasn’t shown any signs of popping yet. Read more about how the Lakers' record $12.5 billion sale resets the market for sports teams:

It think it's stupid that "AI Bubble" gets used over and over. In infra names you have: - 1-3x fwd P/E memory companies from Samsung to $ESMT. With HBM players now having hyperscaler multi-year price floor LTAs. - Optical companies like $POET traded -$97M under net cash. Valuing the operating business very negatively, not even at $0. - While AI companies with larger premiums continue to record demand over the next 3-5 years. Such as the new $20B LTAs signed w/ $COHR to $5B LTAs signed w/ $LITE. Can someone in the media honestly see negative EV high-beta optical companies, where 2 years of burnrate would still value the company below $0. or single digit memory companies with contracted demand + price floors years out and say that's a bubble? Many of these names are extremely profitable today... But obviously there's other elements inside the theme, such as: - Certain startups like Instinct that look like a private valuation bubble. - Leveraged Neoclouds that didn't finance properly - and AI lab valuations and commitments, which should be viewed cautiously. But everything gets grouped into one with the boogyman of "leverage" or "debt". Yes, valuations can compress or correct from macro, potential regulatory uncertainty, or potential capex reductions. But for the companies physically powering the AI buildout, it looks more like the Great AI Deleveraging of 2026... Than anything like fundamental demand destruction. As more earnings come out and free cash flow accumulates over time. I'm confident in a recovery, especially in bottlenecks, and for markets to eventually discern durability + growth over frothy valuations tied to AI.

$200,000 will look insane. Then obvious. $500,000 will look irresponsible. Then inevitable. $1,000,000 will look like a bubble. Then people will quietly stop quoting Bitcoin in dollars and start asking how many sats they can still afford. The funniest part is that the entire opportunity is sitting in public, in real time, with a giant flashing sign that says: FIXED SUPPLY. UNLIMITED FIAT. And somehow most people are still debating whether they should wait for a better entry.

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biggest bald one eyed fucking retard michael burry still stuck in 2008 shorting every ai namewhile the market is at ath and this absolute braindead cassandra keeps screaming 1987 crash from his substack bunker like a broken clock that only works once every twenty years this retard just shorted orcl and nbis today at the top like its free money rolling puts into 2027 because he still thinks the ai bubble pops tomorrow meanwhile nvidia keeps printing and the only thing getting liquidated is his short book twitter already calling him captain early broken clock the fish are shooting YOU in the barrel retard and this guy still acts like hes the smartest man alive while his thesis gets delayed another decade classic big short retard energy one legendary call 18 years ago and now he just sits there shorting hyperscalers adding random longs in flutter and fiserv after they dip and calling everything a bubble while the rest of us make money absolute fucking legend of being wrong on timing for 15 years straight godspeed fellow retards​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ $NBIS $AAOI $ORCL

TLDRs of things I found interesting this week: - $INTC CEO says some memory prices have risen 5-7× and warns the shortage will worsen in 2027. $SNDK / $MU / Samsung bros will be happy to hear this... (from the AI Infra Summit 2026 in Santa Clara) - $GFS + $MRVL sign extended SiGe capacity agreement for pluggable/NPO/CPO. "Expected to add significant capacity to support Marvell’s growing requirements." I like to keep an eye out on Globalfoundries related updates given $SIVE is their reference laser for SCALE. - $CIEN expects roughly 30% annual revenue growth, 50% adj. gross margin, 20% FCF margin, through FY2029. The company says component availability, not demand, is limiting growth... Seems common across $NVDA to upstream suppliers that supply is the limiting factor for revenue growth. - Winbond acquires Infineon's NOR Flash and F-RAM business for $1.12 billion. Very surprised Infineon sold considering NOR Flash ASP + importance just keep going up and up and up, but good for Winbond consolidation. - Samsung reportedly expands outsourcing of DDR5-module and SSD assembly. I think some local Taiwan reports flag Transcend and Apacer as possible beneficiaries. The report specifically identifies Dreamtech, Hanyang Digitech and SFA Semicon. I've noticed other Korean firms entering new Samsung Electronics contracts for likely legacy memory modules maybe like ~1-2m ago.. So think some media commentary probably missed this too. Maybe too small for them to notice? - $NBIS raises AI cloud prices for the 2nd time in three months (~17-21%), bullish read through for other Neoclouds like $CRWV to $IREN earnings. - $AMZN signs $2.4B agreement with $GNRC for generator deliveries throughout 2027-2028... and received warrants tied to as much as $8B of aggregate purchases Good to keep an eye out on who Amazon signs these warrant agreements with (eg. Alchip, $AAOI, $QCOM, $MRVL, etc) and what type of infra procurement they want. - $TSEM and NewPhotonics begin volume shipments of laser integrated optical engines. Not familiar with newphotonics, so not going to leave much commentary here. But will do some research today. - Goldman Sachs reportedly sees the ABF deficit expanding from 14% to 51%. Forecast shortages are 14% in 2H26, 34% in 2027 and 51% in 2028... More substrate bottleneck stuff, not surprising regarding demand imbalances. - Crusoe raises $3.9B at a $30.9B valuation. Okay this valuation is better than Instinct raising at a bubble $10B valuation off 100k users... - Japan and the U.S. reportedly discuss a $12.9–19.3B $GFS run fab. That's like half of Globalfoundries marketcap lol. Not much details here. - $ARM CEO Rene Haas said he is confident that they can secure enough supply to meet $2B in customer demand (for their AGI CPU). There's probably a lot more demand, probably supply constrained growth as usual so good $ARM signaled confidence in securing allocations. - Supply chain sources said Kioxia has about 50% of its LTA capacity tied up, while SK Hynix/Samsung reserve about 70% of capacity for LTAs for 3-5 years. Not sure how people are bearish on memory.... I don't like posting updates one-by-one like a news reporter, so hope this saves some time of stuff I like looking at. On a side note was surprised markets from $AMD to $INTC rallied today after rate hikes. Think high-beta overshot the selloff the most.

Fifty states. One thing I love about each of you. I'm Japanese. I've written about America every day since October, and you keep asking which state is my favorite. I can't choose. So here's every one of you. Find yours. Alabama: The whole country's lost luggage ends up in one store in Scottsboro, and you turned it into a tourist attraction. Alaska: You have more coastline than every other state combined, and you work every mile of it. Arizona: It's 115 degrees, and you still say "but it's a dry heat" with a straight face. Arkansas: Your entire state knows how to call a hog. In unison. California: Some of your redwoods were already old when Japan built its oldest wooden temples. Colorado: You tell people your elevation before your name. Connecticut: Legend says Yale students tossing empty pie tins from a Bridgeport bakery gave the world the Frisbee. Delaware: The First State. You signed before anyone else, and you have never let anyone forget it. Florida: Your grandparents run the pickleball courts like a military operation. Georgia: Peaches are on your license plate, but you talk about Vidalia onions like they're your children. Hawaii: You have a word, ohana, that means nobody gets left out of the family. Idaho: The most beautiful place nobody talks about, and you would like to keep it that way. Illinois: You will defend "no ketchup on a hot dog" harder than most countries defend their borders. Indiana: Every March, an entire state forgets it has jobs. Basketball. Iowa: Your state fair has a cow made of butter, and people line up to see her like she's royalty. Kansas: Scientists proved you're flatter than a pancake. You took it as a compliment. Kentucky: Horses, bourbon, and basketball, taken more seriously than most religions. Louisiana: When the water rises, your people show up in their own fishing boats. The country calls them the Cajun Navy. Maine: For much of the year, you're the first place in America to see the sunrise. Maryland: You put Old Bay on things that never asked for Old Bay. Massachusetts: You opened America's first public school in 1635, and you've been correcting everyone's grammar ever since. Michigan: You hold up your hand to show strangers where you live. Minnesota: "Land of 10,000 Lakes" is on your license plates. You actually have more than 11,000. Too humble to fix it. Mississippi: The blues were born in your Delta, and the whole world has been singing your heartbreak back to you ever since. Missouri: Your nickname is the Show Me State. Not "tell me." Show me. Montana: You have more cattle than people, and you like it that way. Nebraska: On game day, Memorial Stadium becomes the third-largest city in your state. Nevada: Everyone thinks of Las Vegas. You quietly have more mountain ranges than any other state in the lower 48. New Hampshire: In 1934, your mountain recorded a 231-mph wind gust, and the weather observers just kept working. New Jersey: Ask where you're from, and you answer with an exit number. New Mexico: Your official state question is "Red or green?" and you expect a real answer. New York: Half of you are not from "the city," and you would like everyone to know that. North Carolina: "First in Flight" is on your license plate, and Ohio has never forgiven you. North Dakota: You once got 8,962 people to make snow angels at the same time. Ohio: You'll tell me eight presidents came from you, then argue with Virginia about it. Oklahoma: When a tornado takes a town, the first trucks that show up are usually from the next town over. Oregon: Every American kid of a certain age died of dysentery on the way to you. Pennsylvania: You gave the country the Liberty Bell and the soft pretzel, and you're equally proud of both. Rhode Island: You're the smallest state, and you consider twenty minutes a road trip. South Carolina: Your porch ceilings are painted blue to keep away the wasps, and anything else that shouldn't come in. South Dakota: You carved four faces into a mountain. Then you started on a fifth in 1948, and you're still carving. Tennessee: Every song about heartbreak eventually passes through Nashville. Texas: Ask how far away something is, and the answer is always in hours. Utah: You have five national parks, and you will make sure I can name all five. Vermont: You banned billboards in 1968 so nothing would stand between you and a mountain. Virginia: You were here before the country was, and you'll politely remind Ohio. Washington: It rains nine months a year, and you treat July like a personal gift. West Virginia: The only state that sits entirely in the Appalachians, and your people are as strong as the mountains. Wisconsin: You call it a bubbler, not a water fountain, and you will not be corrected. Wyoming: The fewest people of any state, and the first place in America to give women the vote, in 1869. Fifty states. Fifty completely different ways of being American. From the inside, I'm told it can feel like you're always fighting. From Japan, you look like fifty brothers and sisters who argue about chili, football, and what to call a soda, and then drop everything the second one of you needs help. That's not a broken country. That's a family.