OFFICIAL: Bitcoin's MVRV momentum oscillator just printed positive for the first time since October 9, 2025. That is 329 consecutive days underwater. The longest stretch since the 2022 bear. In the modern era this exact setup has appeared three times: a run of 329+ straight days below zero, then a green flip above zero. July 2015. April 2019. January 2023. Here is what came next. 3 months: -21%, +121%, +23% → median +23% 6 months: +40%, +58%, +24% → median +40% 9 months: +37%, +57%, +45% → median +45% 12 months: +114%, +39%, +82% → median +82% 18 months: +160%, +105%, +181% → median +160% 24 months: +669%, +978%, +337% → median +669% Applied to today's $80,000 print, the median path implies: 3 months: $98,533 6 months: $112,021 9 months: $116,358 12 months: $145,894 18 months: $208,010 24 months: $615,167 Three observations, so treat the tails with respect. The 24-month mark lands inside a cycle top every single time, which is precisely where you would expect it to land. The durable read is simpler than the price targets. Every one of those flips left Bitcoin higher a year later, and the worst 12-month outcome was +39%. The oscillator spent 329 days telling you the market was exhausted. It just changed its mind:

BREAKING: BITCOIN IS ONE HAIR FROM FLIPPING GREEN. The MVRV Momentum Oscillator is sitting at just -0.0193. Months of negative momentum have been compressed down to basically ZERO. If this crosses positive and holds, the regime changes. Bitcoin needs a close at $80,600 tonight for this to flip! And historically, you do not want to be discovering Bitcoin AFTER momentum turns green:

$BTC has flashed the momentum signal that started the last two bull markets. MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average. This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market.

GLASSNODE: Bitcoin flashes key momentum signal behind past bull runs. 🚀 • MVRV ratio crosses above 365-day average. • Same signal triggered 2019 and 2023 runs. The BTC rally is only beginning!

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CryptoQuant said $BTC closed above its 365-day moving average at $80.5K for the first time since March 2023, confirming a new bull market. The firm said Bitcoin is now trading near $86K and that the same 365-day MA called the 2019 and 2023 bull markets as well as the late-2021 and November 2025 bear markets. At the same time, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said he expects this cycle to deliver 3-5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market. CryptoQuant said on-chain indicators flipped to the early stages of a bull market in mid-August and that Bitcoin has already cleared the $76K-$81K supply wall where long-term holders and 7+ year-old OG coins sold in large volume this year. The firm put next resistance at $88K-$90K, coinciding with the upper band of trader on-chain realized price. Ki Young Ju said MVRV never fell below 1 this cycle, meaning holders as a whole never went underwater. He also said realized cap is rising, OG whales have stopped selling, futures whales built large longs near the bottom, and the PnL Index’s 365-day moving average is now forming a meaningful inflection. He argued a larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both the explosive upside and the 80% crashes of earlier cycles. Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, Ki Young Ju said, the trade-off that invites long-horizon capital instead of hot money.

I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market. When Bitcoin was smaller and retail dominated, hot money fueled explosive rallies and 80% crashes. Today, a much larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both extremes. The same forces that limit the upside also soften the downside. The PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, reflects this: less extreme cycle tops and bottoms forming at higher profitability levels. This cycle, MVRV never fell below 1. Even at the lows, BTC stayed above holders' average on-chain cost basis. Some investors took losses, but holders as a whole never went underwater. Meanwhile: → Rising realized cap signals fresh capital inflows. → OG whales have stopped selling. → Futures whales built large longs near the bottom. Even the PnL Index's 365-day moving average, which typically lags at turning points, is forming a meaningful inflection right now. None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed. Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, and that is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money. The road here was messy and nothing like a straight line, but the destination may be closer to what Satoshi described than the speculative years ever were: an asset stable enough to actually be used as money. The vision shared by Satoshi and generations of Bitcoiners, once called a self-fulfilling prophecy, may finally be becoming reality. Once Bitcoin grows mature enough to serve as real money, internet-native capital could reshape the world in ways far beyond what you imagine.

This is the BEST POSSIBLE EVIDENCE that the BITCOIN BOTTOM is IN. Check this out. I built a new on-chain model to answer one question: What if Bitcoin bottoms BEFORE the sellers are actually finished dying? Because that is exactly what happened in 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022. And it appears to be happening again. I call it the BITCOIN SELLER HALF-LIFE. The model tracks when long-term holders are selling at losses, how much genuinely old supply is moving, how violently coin-days are being destroyed, and whether long-term supply is actively distributing. In other words it measures the radioactive isotope known scientifically as: “guy who bought the top and has finally informed his wife.” June 30: Bitcoin hits $58,526. Everyone is clinically depressed. The timeline is full of men with laser eyes quietly changing their bios to “AI / macro / longevity.” You would assume maximum capitulation happened right there. It didn’t. Seller stress kept RISING. It finally peaked on August 7. 38 DAYS AFTER THE PRICE LOW. And by the time sellers reached maximum distress… Bitcoin was already 10.9% ABOVE the low. Yup. Sellers got MORE desperate. More old coins moved. Long-term holders realized uglier losses. Coin destruction intensified. And price said “best I can do is remain above $58,526.” That is ABSORPTION. And this pattern is historically normal. Previous cycles: 2015: seller stress peaked 5 days AFTER the BTC low 2018: 37 days AFTER 2020: 10 days AFTER 2022: 3 days AFTER 2026: 38 days AFTER Yes. 38 days today versus 37 days in 2018. Bitcoin apparently has a capitulation department staffed by the same county employees who renew your tabs at the DMV. But there’s more. At the August 7 stress peak: LTS SOPR: 0.811. Meaning long-term coins being spent were taking serious losses. 1-year+ old-coin spending was elevated. LTS Coin Days Destroyed: 14.44 MILLION Nine days later: LTS SOPR: 0.937 Old-coin spent share: DOWN 55.9% LTS CDD: DOWN 57.0% The raw internals are already rolling over. The old sellers are running out of ammunition. They are standing in the garage surrounded by an upside-down side-by-side loan, two broken DeWalt batteries and the remnants of a Costco brisket explaining that they are “waiting for liquidity.” But here is the important nuance: The seller wave is NOT dead yet. My smoothed stress index still shows roughly 80% of peak stress remaining. Historical median time from peak seller stress to: 50% remaining: 50 days 25% remaining: 130.5 days 10% remaining: 169.5 days That means if history rhymes, the bottom does NOT require every seller to finish selling. The price can bottom first. Then the network spends months digesting the radioactive remains. And that is precisely what the historical data says happened. The most bullish sentence in this entire analysis is: MAXIMUM SELLER STRESS FAILED TO CREATE A NEW PRICE LOW. Read that again. Bitcoin absorbed the worst combination of: long-term holder losses old-coin movement coin-day destruction long-term distribution …and stayed above the June low. This is how bottoms form. Not when a 29-year-old CNBC contributor wearing a quarter-zip tells you “institutional flows have stabilized.” Bottoms happen when the people who absolutely HAVE TO SELL finally unload into buyers who simply refuse to move. Now, this was a shallower reset than 2015, 2018 or 2022. At the June low: NUPL was still +0.093 and LTH MVRV was still 1.176. Bitcoin remained above aggregate realized price. So this was not generational thermonuclear undervaluation. It looks more like a high-level absorption reset… the market found a clearing price before the entire holder base became insolvent. That may be the structural difference this cycle with more institutional capital and more corporate buyers. This is permanent demand. June 30 was probably the bottom. We are now in the ugly phase AFTER capitulation but BEFORE clean expansion. The sellers are decaying.