OFFICIAL: Bitcoin's MVRV momentum oscillator just printed positive for the first time since October 9, 2025. That is 329 consecutive days underwater. The longest stretch since the 2022 bear. In the modern era this exact setup has appeared three times: a run of 329+ straight days below zero, then a green flip above zero. July 2015. April 2019. January 2023. Here is what came next. 3 months: -21%, +121%, +23% → median +23% 6 months: +40%, +58%, +24% → median +40% 9 months: +37%, +57%, +45% → median +45% 12 months: +114%, +39%, +82% → median +82% 18 months: +160%, +105%, +181% → median +160% 24 months: +669%, +978%, +337% → median +669% Applied to today's $80,000 print, the median path implies: 3 months: $98,533 6 months: $112,021 9 months: $116,358 12 months: $145,894 18 months: $208,010 24 months: $615,167 Three observations, so treat the tails with respect. The 24-month mark lands inside a cycle top every single time, which is precisely where you would expect it to land. The durable read is simpler than the price targets. Every one of those flips left Bitcoin higher a year later, and the worst 12-month outcome was +39%. The oscillator spent 329 days telling you the market was exhausted. It just changed its mind:

On July 1, MVRV Percentile reached 0% at a price of $59.3K. This was followed by a recovery to 32% (September 27); the indicator held around 30-32% for about two weeks, but failed to consolidate and pulled back to 25%. The market remains in the early-to-mid accumulation phase.

Bitcoin is now 103 days past the June 2026 MVRV cycle bottom. So I looked at the last 4 prior MVRV cycle bottoms and asked: What were BTC’s forward returns from this exact point? Median results from day 103: 3 months: +17.4% 6 months: +68.9% 12 months: +109.2% In all 4 prior cases, forward 3M / 6M / 12M returns were positive. At today’s BTC price of $82,562, those median returns would imply: 3M: $96,935 6M: $139,445 12M: $172,745 Sample size is small, obviously. But historically, day 103 after an MVRV bottom has been a very strong place to be long Bitcoin.

BREAKING: BITCOIN IS ONE HAIR FROM FLIPPING GREEN. The MVRV Momentum Oscillator is sitting at just -0.0193. Months of negative momentum have been compressed down to basically ZERO. If this crosses positive and holds, the regime changes. Bitcoin needs a close at $80,600 tonight for this to flip! And historically, you do not want to be discovering Bitcoin AFTER momentum turns green:

$BTC has flashed the momentum signal that started the last two bull markets. MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average. This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market.

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