I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market. When Bitcoin was smaller and retail dominated, hot money fueled explosive rallies and 80% crashes. Today, a much larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both extremes. The same forces that limit the upside also soften the downside. The PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, reflects this: less extreme cycle tops and bottoms forming at higher profitability levels. This cycle, MVRV never fell below 1. Even at the lows, BTC stayed above holders' average on-chain cost basis. Some investors took losses, but holders as a whole never went underwater. Meanwhile: → Rising realized cap signals fresh capital inflows. → OG whales have stopped selling. → Futures whales built large longs near the bottom. Even the PnL Index's 365-day moving average, which typically lags at turning points, is forming a meaningful inflection right now. None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed. Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, and that is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money. The road here was messy and nothing like a straight line, but the destination may be closer to what Satoshi described than the speculative years ever were: an asset stable enough to actually be used as money. The vision shared by Satoshi and generations of Bitcoiners, once called a self-fulfilling prophecy, may finally be becoming reality. Once Bitcoin grows mature enough to serve as real money, internet-native capital could reshape the world in ways far beyond what you imagine.

BTC reclaimed the 365MA at $83K and is sitting above $84K. That's the line everyone's been watching for the end of the bear. If it holds, momentum traders and institutions start FOMOing in. This is where it gets fun 🤝

Bitcoin isn't losing momentum, it's meeting resistance. Technical, valuation and on-chain resistance all converge just above the current price. Until those levels break, consolidation is the higher-probability outcome.

Going into tomorrow’s $6.2 billion options expiry, bitcoin faces a massive sell wall at $82,000, where $3.6 billion of negative gamma exposure is concentrated. Break $82,000 and it would leave short-gamma market makers increasingly offside, forcing them to buy bitcoin to hedge and accelerate the rally.

The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US. Korea still has no spot Bitcoin ETF, retail can't buy foreign ones, and companies can't even open exchange accounts to buy BTC. So far this has been a US adoption story, but the next phase is global institutionalization with deeper stablecoin liquidity and RWA rails. More institutions will hold BTC as a strategic asset, and access will improve in the many countries that still lack ETFs. This cycle's top might be when a banker at a regional bank in Korea recommends a spot Bitcoin ETF to a granny for her savings.

Market regime has switched to Bull for Bitcoin. Basically all metrics are pointing to the initial phase of a new bull market. Two things to keep in mind: - Bitcoin's price still has to cross above its 365-day MA ($83K today) for the bull market to be "officially" confirmed. - A price correction is possible given high unrealized gains after the recent price rally, and potential selling pressure from a spike of exchange inflows. All in all, the data is very constructive. Full analysis in our report:

For the first time since the October 2025 ATH, Bitcoin demand has turned positive in both spot and perpetual futures. The scale remains modest, but if this holds for another month, it would be reasonable to conclude that the bear market is over and a new bull cycle has begun.

Similar spikes in market buy ratios have recently appeared on OKX and other exchanges. That could be a sign some OG traders are positioning bullish here. This should not be read as a definitive bottom signal, but it serves as a useful gauge of OG trader sentiment.

Bitcoin OG traders just had their most profitable cycle ever. Unlike past cycles, crypto exchange traders were not the exit liquidity. ETFs and DATs were. That structural bid pushed Binance traders' unrealized profits to nearly triple the 2021 top. 🧵