PlanB
@100trillionUSD
All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! ๐
163 Following 2.2M Followers
Bitcoin closed October at $77,430
No Uptober unfortunately,
But RSI is above 50 for the 3rd month in a row,
Signaling the birth of a new bull market.
18 years ago, on Oct 31 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin whitepaper. MUST READ!
Signal: both 50-week moving average and 155-day realized price at $75k.
Don't get distracted by noise at this point.
Bitcoin price: $83k
200-week moving average: $67k
Bitcoin % in profit: 70%๐ข
Interesting times ahead!!
Interactive chart and full data download:
A 14% BTC allocation in mean-variance optimizers using JPM's 10% CAGR/55% vol assumptions highlights its efficiency contribution. Institutions control $100-200T+. Even partial uptake at half that level implies multi-trillion demand. Fixed supply + historical ~3x inflow multipliers point to potential $250k-$1M+ prices over years as capital rotates in gradually.
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๐ข๐ด๐ข๐ด๐ข๐ด๐ข .. it can't be that easy, right?
โ ๏ธ Update โ ๏ธ
I moved my bitcoin to ETFs in 2025 and got a lot of heat for that decision.
Then the Coldcard entropy issues came out.
Then Ledger devices with unauthorized hardware implants were discovered.
Zero regrets of my ETF decision. Peace of mind.
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โ ๏ธ Disclosure โ ๏ธ
I have transferred my bitcoin to ETFs.
Yes I know, not your keys not your coins. But it is just easier for me to manage bitcoin the same way as equities and bonds. Also, not having to hassle with keys gives me peace of mind. I guess I am not a maxi anymore.
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Bitcoin ... like clockwork
You used to pay $1,000/m for bitcoin metrics.
That era is over.
BlockHorizon is 100% free:
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150+ charts (MVRV, NUPL, Realized etc)
โ
Full history
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Unlimited alerts
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CSV / XLS / JSON data downloads
BTC $86k is sitting on 2-year realized price
๐
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What a time to be alive!๐
Interactive chart:
$85k bitcoin .. clear skies ahead
Interactive chart and data (100% free):
$77k bitcoin is squeezed between two giant walls:
๐ 1M BTC sitting at $62โ65k
๐ต 1M BTC sitting at $84โ87k
Which way does it break $65k or $84k?
Live interactive version of this chart 100% free (full history, daily updates, alerts, CSV/XLS/JSON data):
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Bitcoin closed September at $83,563
- Above Realized Price $54k
- Above 200-week MA $66k
- Addresses in profit 82%
- UTXO in profit 80%
- Bitcoin in profit 71%
Looking forward to Uptober!
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Bitcoin is getting stronger
Just a scenario for the second half of this halving cycle, Apr 2024 - Apr 2028 (no not a prediction, just a scenario, food for thought, you assign the odds):
๐ณ $100K in October
๐ณ New ATH (>$126K) before Christmas
๐ณ 2027 - 2028: >$232K (4x $58K bottom)
What do you think?
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โ ๏ธStop blaming influencers for your investment results!
Thatโs not analysis. Thatโs outsourcing responsibility.
Do this instead:
- Follow bulls AND bears
- Steal their reasoning
- Ignore their certainty
- Assign your own odds (60/40, 70/30, whatever)
- Size the trade yourself
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BTC $87K is now sitting above every major realized price:
โข Realized price: $53K
โข 155-day realized: $72K
โข 2-year realized: $86K
A drop below $53K this cycle is off the table IMO. The โmust retest realized price like every prior bearโ thesis just lost its last clean setup.
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Last time youโll see Bitcoin under $100k?
Look at the October column.
Uptober is loading.๐๐
Bitcoin ($81k) closed above 50-week MA ($79k).
Next target: 100-week MA ($89k) ๐
Interactive chart:
๐ฆNow we wait until bitcoin difficulty goes up ..
Interactive difficulty chart:
Bitcoin left the 200-week moving average again.
BTC price: $77k
200WMA: $65k
๐ตEvery cycle bottom happened when the rainbow turned blue. The people who bought the last three times this happened made generational wealth.
Interactive chart๐
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