PlanB
@100trillionUSD
All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉
163 Following 2.2M Followers
Just a scenario for the second half of this halving cycle, Apr 2024 - Apr 2028 (no not a prediction, just a scenario, food for thought, you assign the odds):
🔳 $100K in October
🔳 New ATH (>$126K) before Christmas
🔳 2027 - 2028: >$232K (4x $58K bottom)
What do you think?
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⚠️Stop blaming influencers for your investment results!
That’s not analysis. That’s outsourcing responsibility.
Do this instead:
- Follow bulls AND bears
- Steal their reasoning
- Ignore their certainty
- Assign your own odds (60/40, 70/30, whatever)
- Size the trade yourself
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BTC $87K is now sitting above every major realized price:
• Realized price: $53K
• 155-day realized: $72K
• 2-year realized: $86K
A drop below $53K this cycle is off the table IMO. The “must retest realized price like every prior bear” thesis just lost its last clean setup.
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Last time you’ll see Bitcoin under $100k?
Look at the October column.
Uptober is loading.🎃📈
Bitcoin ($81k) closed above 50-week MA ($79k).
Next target: 100-week MA ($89k) 🚀
Interactive chart:
🟦Now we wait until bitcoin difficulty goes up ..
Interactive difficulty chart:
Bitcoin left the 200-week moving average again.
BTC price: $77k
200WMA: $65k
🔵Every cycle bottom happened when the rainbow turned blue. The people who bought the last three times this happened made generational wealth.
Interactive chart👉
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$77k bitcoin is squeezed between two giant walls:
🟠 1M BTC sitting at $62–65k
🔵 1M BTC sitting at $84–87k
Which way does it break $65k or $84k?
Live interactive version of this chart 100% free (full history, daily updates, alerts, CSV/XLS/JSON data):
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You used to pay $1,000-$10,000/y for bitcoin metrics.
That era just ended.
BlockHorizon opened the full stack, 100% free:
✅ 100+ charts (MVRV, NUPL, Realized, S2F)
✅ Full historic data, daily updates
✅ Unlimited alerts
✅ CSV/Excel/JSON downloads
👉
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One of my first tweets, 2018, pre-S2F, most people thought bitcoin was like the Tulip Bubble ...
#Bitcoin# is dead. Bubble. Death spiral 🤣🤣🤣
Guess who is buying now, like 2012 and 2015-2016?
Bitcoin just ran $58K → $78K.
Was July 1 the bear-market bottom?
Bitcoin closed August at $78,571
- Above 200 week MA $65k
- Above 5 month (STH) realized price $72k
- All realized prices are increasing again
- Bitcoin in profit 72% (up from 50%)
- Monthly RSI 51 (up from 41)
IMO the bottom is behind us.
I expect higher prices from here.
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✅Bitcoin in profit > 70% (color overlay in this chat)
✅BTC > 200 week moving average (black line)
✅RSI > 50 (trend is up)
✅QE restarted
Feels like the bear is dead and bulls are in charge🚀
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@Airwaxim @GutisBTC Indeed, scarcity isn’t just about supply, in fact it's more about stock! It is very hard for a commodity (stock<production) to become a monetary asset (stock>production) and escape the power of producers. IMO S2F is not a supply model, because S2F explains (monetary) demand!
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@Airwaxim @GutisBTC Indeed, scarcity isn’t just about supply, in fact it's more about stock! It is very hard for a commodity (stock<production) to become a monetary asset (stock>production) and escape the power of producers. IMO S2F is not a supply model, because S2F explains (monetary) demand!
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@GutisBTC I learned from bitcoin that digital 10 stuff can be scarce.
I am an old gold bug, so I knew scarce stuff has value. And I learned from S2F how you measure scarcity:
- gold stock = 60x production, so gold is scarce/money
- platinum stock < production, so not scarce/not money
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@GutisBTC I learned from bitcoin that digital 10 stuff can be scarce.
I am an old gold bug, so I knew scarce stuff has value. And I learned from S2F how you measure scarcity:
- gold stock = 60x production, so gold is scarce/money
- platinum stock < production, so not scarce/not money
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1) Scarcity drives monetary value.
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) = existing supply ÷ annual new production. Gold sits at ~60. Industrial metals are far lower. Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million + predictable issuance makes its S2F uniquely measurable: ~120 and rising.
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Most people stare at Bitcoin charts.
Stock-to-Flow models scarcity.
Here are the 10 highest-value S2F insights, the ones that actually change how you think about money.
Thread 🧵
BIP-110 joins BXT, BCH and BSV forks in the history of dead bitcoin ideas.
Remember the BIP-110 supporters! They are now removing the evidence from their profile and timelines. But they still have no clue about bitcoin, decentralized bearer assets, spam, PoW, forks, consensus.
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