PlanB
@100trillionUSD
All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉
160 Following 2.2M Followers
To be clear (if it wasn't already clear from me retweeting Adam on this topic): I am against the bip 110 filter fork.
IMO filter fork proponents do not really understand:
- bitcoin as a decentralized bearer asset
- bitcoiners dislike spam more then they do
- why BCH fork failed
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🔵 Only ~50% of #Bitcoin# is in profit right now.
How long will BTC stay stuck in this blue zone?
It could take a couple more months… but once this metric flips back to 🟢, a new bull cycle begins.
History is clear on what happens next 👀
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Bitcoin metrics used to cost thousands per year.
BlockHorizon just opened everything up, 100% FREE data & charts:
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Same data as other providers. No paywall
👉
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I have been using data from BlockHorizon for all my analysis and charts. This used to be proprietary data. Now they’ve opened it up: free access to all metrics, charts, and downloadable raw datasets, updated daily.
Worth checking out👉
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Bitcoin closed June at $58,526
BELOW 200 week moving average ($62k)
ABOVE realized cost price ($52k)
ALL previous bear market bottoms were below realized price ...
What will trigger bitcoin's liquidation phase to the bear market bottom next couple of months?
Bitcoin will likely bottom BELOW Realized Price (~$53k), just like it did in EVERY previous bear market.
Right now the grey Realized Price line has been glued to the black 200-week Geometric MA line since 2023.
What do you think: new low incoming or different this time?👇
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In the next 4 years bitcoin price will:
Not to bash ETH and correct me if I am wrong, but IMO this ETH/BTC chart is remarkable and has important insights:
- ETH has done worse than bitcoin over last 10 years!! Still at 0.026 BTC, like March 2016.
- No ETH bull market pump in 2023/2024, like it did in 2017 and 2021...
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Reason why bitcoin had a lousy 2025 bull, decoupled from gold & equities, is in bear now ... is the complete implosion of altcoins IMO. Take ETH for example: -70% from its 2021 top and almost back to its 2017 top 📉IMO shitcoins are done, lesson learned, expensive but worth it.
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AI (gemma4:12b) understands bitcoin better than most humans, and certainly better than most traditional media😂
✅ below 200w moving average (black line)
🔳 below realized price (grey line $53k) ...
Bitcoin closed May at $73,568
Market is 50/50 on if Febryary $60k was the bottom, or the bear will continue.
IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probablility that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k).
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Bitcoin closed May at $73,568
Market is 50/50 on if Febryary $60k was the bottom, or the bear will continue.
IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probablility that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k).
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Was Februari $60k the bottom of this bitcoin bear market, and does BTC go up from here?
Or, is the bear market bottom yet to come, and below $60k?
One of my first tweets (2018) .. funny in hindsight
#bitcoin# 2024: $100k, $1mln or $10mln?
Logarithmic
+ best data fit
- overfits 2010 (Satoshi only miner, no markets)
- shape inconsistent with S-curve
Exponential
+ good fit
+ doesnt overfit
- endless growth
Logistic
+ formal S-curve
+ exponential till 25% adoption, then levels
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📈Bitcoin April close: $76,310
BTC will go up long term (debasement + scarcity) but mixed signals short term:
2 charts left show RSI and %_BTC_in_profit🔵already at bottom levels -> BTC up?
2 charts right show Realized Price and Drawdown🟢not yet at bottom levels -> BTC down?
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No doubt there will be a new bull market with new ATHs
but IMO bitcoin will go lower🔵before next bull market🔴
* Note color scale is different in this chart: drawdown (BTC price / ATH) instead of relative strength index (RSI). Easier to calculate and easier to understand.
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Bitcoin closed March at $68,215 (RSI 44🔵)
As said before, I would not be surprised if BTC dips below 200w moving average ($59k) and realized price ($54k) before next leg up towards S2F $500k levels ($250k-$1m range). Interesting times head.
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Bitcoin closed February at $66,985 .. below 2021 ATH
Approaching 200 week moving average ($58k black line) and realized price ($54k grey line). RSI<45 (blue).
Where will this bitcoin bear market bottom out (roughly)?
