glassnode
@glassnode
Digital asset data, analytics, and research.
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Sellers are getting exhausted, but have not reached levels we saw in past bitcoin:native bear markets.
According to the Seller Exhaustion Constant (30d), the historical bottoming signature has not confirmed yet.
We continue to monitor for selling to stall further.
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A mere 0.7% of $BTC miner revenue comes from transaction fees, and has been sub 1% for almost a year.
Bitcoin was below $400 the last time fee share was this low.
Security budget funded almost exclusively by block subsidy.
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Over the last 90 days the S&P 500 rose 5% while Bitcoin fell 20%. The last 7 days show the same pattern.
Until Bitcoin reclaims strength against the indices, this remains an equity-led tape.
Notably, the NASDAQ is lagging behind other major indices indicating an unfavorable environment for tech-heavy portfolios.
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$BTC has stabilised near $65k, with stronger taker demand, robust institutional inflows and easing downside hedging. However, subdued spot liquidity and weak on-chain activity suggest the recovery remains tentative.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
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1/ Still think $BTC is sitting on somewhat shaky legs here.
Participation and demand continue to look pretty thin.
A few datapoints I’m watching, and what I’d like to see turn around for a sustainable recovery 🧵👇
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Now live in Market Compass: the #Bitcoin# Cycle Position Composite, with heatmap, and snapshot charts – updated daily.
Included in all Advanced and Pro plans.
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Last week, the market sold off into the FOMC and bottomed on decision day: the S&P printed a 7-week low, with equity fear spiking. Four sessions later, we saw new highs. The decision to hold rates steady appears to have been the risk-on signal the market was waiting for
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Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything.
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Following the Coldcard firmware exploit, the number of active Bitcoin addresses surged to 0.98M/day, the highest since December 2024.
This is fear-driven on-chain activity. Holders migrating seeds and moving funds to alternative custody reflects an operational security response, not a change in market conviction.
📉
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The Great AI Migration
#BTC# hash rate down nearly 20% since its October peak
Bitcoin's options skew looks bearish – but not because traders are aggressively paying for protection.
While downside IV is cheap, the real extreme is upside IV: an all-time low of 23%.
Nobody is paying for $BTC upside anymore.
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Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything.
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OKX moved its trading infrastructure from Hong Kong to Tokyo this week.
Our latency probes caught the switch live:
Hong Kong: ~5ms → ~63ms
Tokyo: ~52ms → ~4ms
A clean swap. If you’re co-located in Hong Kong for @okx, it’s time to move to Tokyo.
👉
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Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything.
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As requested: the cycle position composite as a time-series 👇
Your AI agent can now buy Glassnode data.
x402 pays per call: from your @coinbase balance via Coinbase for Agents (live today), or any USDC wallet via Base MCP.
Try: "Pull Glassnode's MVRV and NUPL for BTC and tell me if the market is overheated"
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Top traders on Hyperliquid are aggressively long bitcoin:native , showing some of the highest sustained long positioning we’ve recorded. This exposure exceeds what was seen during the last run to around $83k, pointing to strong speculative demand at these levels.
📊
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$BTC volume sent from long-term holders in profit to exchanges has faded and sits near its lowest since early 2023.
LTH profit-taking has effectively switched off.
First eventful order flow in weeks. Aggressive shorting into the 58k lows, twice. Unfortunately for bears, the retest coincided with spot sell pressure easing. All of this short OI has since been flushed. Notably, BTC remained strong today despite negative news of MSTR selling
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Bitcoin's easing into consolidation. Selling has cooled, futures longs are piling back in, and options traders aren't as spooked about downside anymore. ETF outflows are drying up too. Hot capital is creeping back though, which could stir up volatility even as profits climb.
Read this week’s Market Pulse👇
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The options market is currently pricing in low future volatility for $BTC. While upside expectations remain unchanged we see less demand for short exposure. This could be the first sign of optimism returning to the options market.
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One of our most insightful on chain metrics is the Hyperliquid Entry Price Heatmap. It shows the exact price levels at which traders enter positions. Large longs from $72-76k and shorts from $60k are currently under water, leading to fragility in either direction.
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