October Surprise? Exogenous Events & Middle East Impact Catch the full episode here: Beneath the Bull: RenMac Off-Script #Geopolitics# #OilMarket# #Iran#

OIL JUMPS 2% AS U.S.-IRAN TALKS STALL Brent surged 2.5% to $106.92, while WTI climbed 2.3% to $94.49 after President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to end the conflict and reopen Hormuz. Further U.S.-Iran talks are expected this week, while Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia add to regional risks. Middle East exports are recovering, but analysts say the oil market remains in deficit, keeping upward pressure on prices.

Oil refiners are making historic profits. The 3-2-1 WTI refining margin is up to a record $59 per barrel. This is a key metric of how much profit refiners generate from turning crude oil into fuels like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Refining margins have nearly tripled since the start of 2026. By comparison, this metric average ~$10 per barrel between 1985 and 2021 and never exceeded $30 per barrel during the 2004-2008 refining boom. The surge reflects a severe shortage of global refining capacity, as the Iran War, attacks on Russian refineries, and lower fuel exports have tightened supply. As a result, an estimated ~10% of global refining capacity, or ~8 million barrels per day, is offline, keeping gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices elevated even with crude oil trading ~$40 per barrel below its March high. World refiners are cashing in on a tightening oil market.