RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research
@RenMacLLC
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AI demand? Check. Core durable goods shipments have advanced 11 percent annualized so far this year. Momentum behind orders remains strong though all of the growth in core orders last month was due to computers & electronic products.
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Trump's Iran Strategy: Pre-Midterm Aggression?
The First Crack: RenMac Off-Script
Did We Run Out of Cushion In the Oil Markets?
The First Crack: RenMac Off-Script
Tops Don't Form On Bad News
The First Crack: RenMac Off-Script
Fed's 3-Step Checklist For Rate Hikes
The First Crack: RenMac Off-Script
Renaissance's Jeff DeGraaf on why he is calling the moment a 'momentum crash environment' for the market
Neil Dutta of @RenMacLLC says Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh should hike interest rates when he can, not when he must. Warsh can probably get the FOMC to hold rates steady this month, but may not be so lucky in September. Dutta speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."
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The path to a Fed rate hike next week... check check and check. McKee Bloomberg
We just got the highest mortgage rate reading of 2026
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.85%
Same day last year: 6.78%
—————
10-year Treasury yield: 4.70%
Spread: 215 bps
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Yes, the labor market is not consistent with overheating. But that is besides the point. The minutes laid out three things: strong AI-related demand, the conflict in the Middle East, and the effects of tariffs. Check. Check. Check.
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GS: The Economy Is Not Experiencing Macroeconomic Overheating, Which Is The Strongest Rationale for Raising Interest Rates
"The hawks have a conviction right now that those inclined to wait may lack." Exactly this. It is not just about counting the dots, but weighting the dots based on the conviction of each participant.
On the July Fed meeting: "I can make a good case for either raising rates or not... They're just kind of stuck."
Cooler inflation took the urgency out of a July hike, before Iran reignited. The hawks have a conviction right now that those inclined to wait may lack. Warsh hasn't tipped his hand (as of last week, even to some of his own colleagues). Why next week's meeting is shaping up as one of the most uncertain in quite a while.
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.@RenMacLLC: “Why not a hike now?”
“If we have learned anything since June, it is that inflation will not soon return to 2%.”
Business inflation expectations remain benign. According to the Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Survey, the median expected change to unit costs over the next 12 months fell to 2.1 percent in July, the lowest since March.
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In June, the AIA Architectural Billings Index rose to 47.3 undoing some of its decline last month. Still, the index remains mired in contraction (sub-50). The billings index tends to lead nonresidential structures investment by roughly 3-4 quarters so expect continued weakness.
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The data moves all week, and we break it down on Friday.
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Pulling a “Greenspan” here means allowing stronger productivity to pull inflation to target. It doesn’t mean easing to push demand to your “intuition” of aggregate supply.
