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@RenMacLLC
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Recall that total hours worked in Q3 ran 1.3% SAAR. This implies productivity growth of roughly 2.0% in Q3. Golden Age?
@TheStalwart A bunch of officials want to skip October. That’s all it is.
AI Spend Breakdown: Top 1% Drives 80% of Enterprise AI Costs
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AI's Reality Check: RenMac Off-Script with @arakharazian
#AI# #Business#
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AI and the Job Market
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AI's Reality Check: RenMac Off-Script with @arakharazian
#AI# #Economy# #TechJobs#
Waller: "I am concerned that the recent acceleration in inflation—after what soon will be five and a half years of it above the FOMC's target—will lead consumers, investors, and price-setting businesses to revise up their expectations for future inflation." Compare and contrast to last November ... "the Fed needs a better reason than inflation having been above target for 5 years to not cut rates."
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Bidding au revoir to 3-month core inflation crowd ... Waller: “Looking at the history of 12-month core inflation, it has been between roughly 2.5 percent and 3.0 percent since the spring of 2024. This is obviously higher than we want, above our target, and not showing sufficient progress.”
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SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
Sept 2026
Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 ppt at the 1-yr horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the 3-yr horizon, to 3.9% and 3.3%, respectively. Expectations remained unchanged at the 5-yr-ahead horizon at 3.0%.
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$SPY at highs / $HYG at lows. The setup is back.
The last 5 times stocks sat within 1% of its 52-wk high while Junk Bonds sat within 1% of its 52-wk low, the next quarter lagged 4 of 5 times. Median: -3.5% vs. +3.7% typical. n=5.
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Every week, Jeff deGraaf and Neil Dutta break down the markets and economy for RenMac clients. Now you can see the market the way we do.
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ACA Rebates: $500 Checks Before Election?
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Beneath the Bull: RenMac Off-Script
#ACArebates# #ElectionImpact#
Why AI Could Become a Commodity
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Beneath the Bull: RenMac Off-Script
#AI# #TechPolicy#
October Surprise? Exogenous Events & Middle East Impact
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Beneath the Bull: RenMac Off-Script
#Geopolitics# #OilMarket# #Iran#
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Bitcoin vs. Gold: Why Crypto Ignores Treasury Yields
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Beneath the Bull: RenMac Off-Script
#Bitcoin# #Gold# #MarketAnalysis#
Fed Rate Hikes: Employment NOT the Dominant Factor
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Beneath the Bull: RenMac Off-Script
#Econ# #InterestRates#
Fed Rate Hikes: Employment NOT the Dominant Factor
Catch the full episode here:
Beneath the Bull: RenMac Off-Script
#Econ# #InterestRates#
Fed Rate Hikes: Employment NOT the Dominant Factor
Catch the full episode here:
Beneath the Bull: RenMac Off-Script
#Econ# #InterestRates#
"As these rates start to hit and these real rates start to climb, we want to be really careful about not being too enthusiastic about what maybe the surface is saying."
Hear what the technicals are tellling @RenMacLLC Chairman Jeff deGraaf:
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Neil Dutta says an October rate hike may be on life support after weak labor-market data, but investors should not embrace the dovish outlook too quickly
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If growth is expected to be above trend and inflation is already running above target, it’s tough to get long the front end.
Neil Dutta says an October rate hike may be on life support after weak labor-market data, but investors should not embrace the dovish outlook too quickly
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Interesting disconnect in the labor market. Small firms (data released today) continue to report that "labor quality" is a big problem. Meanwhile, data shows and consumers confirm (via surveys) that job finding rates remain very weak. If firms see quality as a real issue, wouldn't their recruiting intensity be much stronger?
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