Q2 2025 was a seminal point in Tesla’s history: the beginning of our transition from leading the electric vehicle and renewable energy industries to also becoming a leader in AI, robotics & related services (hi @robotaxi) We officially launched our Robotaxi service in Austin in June, with our camera-only architecture with neural networks trained on data from our global fleet of millions of vehicles. Q2 Highlights North America – Test drives in North America are up 20% sequentially (as you know, butts in seats ...) – Model Y is becoming more accessible with the recent launch of Model Y RWD, which starts at under $45k with 357 miles of range APAC – We achieved record delivery volumes in South Korea 🇰🇷 (@Tesla_Korea), Malaysia 🇲🇾, the Philippines 🇵🇭 & Singapore 🇸🇬 – In July, we launched the Model Y in India 🇮🇳, marking our entry into the world’s third-largest car market @Tesla_India – New Model 3 earned a 5-star Overall Safety Rating from ANCAP, achieving 95% in the Child Occupant Protection pillar – the highest result recorded to date against ANCAP’s 2023-2025 criteria – We continue to prepare for broader release of FSD Supervised in China 🇨🇳 this year (pending regulatory approval) EMEA – Model Y was the best-selling vehicle in Norway 🇳🇴 year-to-date & in Türkiye🇹🇷 , the Netherlands 🇳🇱, Switzerland 🇨🇭 & Austria 🇦🇹 in June – New Model 3 achieved a 5-star Overall Safety Rating from EuroNCAP & is the safest car in Europe (based on the latest EuroNCAP test scores) – We continue to prepare for the launch of FSD Supervised in Europe this year (pending regulatory approval) AI Software & Hardware @Tesla_AI – World's first autonomous delivery to a customer with a new production Model Y driving itself ~30 minutes from the factory across town to its new owner's home, including on highways – We expanded AI training compute with an additional 16k H200 GPUs at Gigafactory Texas, bringing Cortex to a total of 67k H100 equivalents Battery, Powertrain & Manufacturing – Our lithium refining & cathode production plants remain on track to begin production in 2025, on-shoring production of critical battery materials to the US – We are on course to begin domestic production of our first LFP cells for our energy storage products later this year Energy generation & storage – Record Powerwall deployments for the fifth consecutive quarter – Gross profit increased sequentially & year-over-year, reaching a record of $846 million – We started deploying @Tesla_Megapack from Megafactory Shanghai as the ramp continues as planned Services & other – We added over 2,900 net new Supercharging stalls, growing the network 18% year-over-year @TeslaCharging 🔋

$UBER Uber is betting on drone delivery. Zipline consumer usage is hitting record highs in our trackers, up 174% over the past year, as Uber takes a strategic stake and brings Zipline drones to Uber Eats.

📔 Loom Speaker Notes You know that feeling when you go to record something and end-up re-doing the intro five times? Just me? Even though I am pretty comfortable speaking off-the-cuff, I reckon we all have things that trip us up when speaking to camera - and that intro line is mine. We’re always working on ways to make the recording process in @loom feel easier for everyone. Here’s an early look of how Marc Jenkinson is designing the details of Speaker Notes. Marc shows a bunch of thoughtful interaction decisions that ultimately helps teams communicate better - by enabling you to feel more prepared, be more authentic in delivery and stay in the flow of the message. All without the 'reading from a teleprompter' vibe that comes from your eyes darting around, or the "uhhh" pauses of frantic window management. I'm still working on the existential choice of "Hey" / "Hello" / "OK" / "G'day" - but Speaker Notes has me covered for the rest.

Weekly|SNOW Data Flywheel & CoCo, Optics Scale-In, BE Delivery Debate, Enterprise AI Vol.2, CRDO/MDB/PANW The software vs semi split that defined last week finally started to rebalance. Software that printed what the channel had been pointing to kept working through most of the week, while the semi tape spent the first half getting tagged by rates — the 10-year pushed to 4.8% on Tuesday, the highest since January 2025, after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole turn had traders pricing hikes rather than cuts. By Friday the setup flipped: semis clearly outperformed, and memory names broke out. Near-term software short cover looks largely done, the outperformance looks stretched, and the momentum unwind in semis has already gone to an extreme — which leaves less of that particular overhang in the names that got hit hardest. On the software prints, SNOW was the cleanest expression of the channel read. We went into the print cautious on 2Q because of tough comps and more constructive on 3Q, and the flywheel was stronger than even that. Product revenue grew 37% year over year, a 5.2% beat that matched last quarter, and the full-year product-revenue guide jumped from 31% to 36%, one of the largest annual raises in the company’s history. CoCo is no longer a product call. Accounts passed 9,100 with more than 2,000 net adds in the quarter, CoWork is at 5,800, and customers are consolidating transactional data onto the platform. Our preview had CoCo adding about two points this quarter; the print confirmed the direction and then some. The data flywheel is what we think the multiple should be underwriting, not a single SKU. Optics is the other narrative that actually moved, and it moved inward. Scale-in, as Lumentum’s CEO put it, is the thing to watch over the next 12 to 18 months: optical links inside the tray, targeting memory-class bandwidth, roughly 10x scale-up per GPU. NVIDIA has already written $2bn checks into Lumentum and Coherent; Marvell’s Celestial AI deal and the Google warrant, which discloses memory interface controllers and near-memory compute, are the capital trail. CRDO’s print sits in the same stack from the other end: a record quarter, Q2 guide above the Street, optics still a 2H ramp. On power, the AIDC demand debate is over. Bloom’s multiple has already reset from about 85x to 42x forward EV/EBITDA after the July shorts, and the stock has not re-rated on the 2Q beat-and-raise. We think the question is now whether Bloom can convert booked slots into shippable MW. We model about 2.7GW of year-end 2027 manufacturing capacity and 2.2GW of 2027 deliveries against 2.0GW consensus. Scandium looks manageable; service capacity is the overlooked constraint. Enterprise AI is splitting the same way the tape is: Vol.2 went out on Substack this week, spend is still growing, and the samples have diverged. Production-tied use cases keep adding; per-head allowances are getting cut. The increment is in APIs and production workflows, and ROI only converts into a budget when hours saved cross a threshold large enough to reallocate a person, about 30%, which is why some CFOs are already holding the total IT envelope flat. This Week’s Reports Optics — scale-in puts optical links inside the tray, and the bandwidth it targets is roughly 10x scale-up per GPU. Lumentum’s CEO called it the thing to watch over the next 12 to 18 months; NVIDIA’s $2bn checks into Lumentum and Coherent, and Marvell’s Google warrant covering memory interface controllers, are the capital already moving. Preview & Review | SNOW FY27Q2: Beyond a Single Product, a Data Flywheel That Merits a Longer Horizon. Product revenue grew 37% YoY and beat sell-side by 5.2%, with the full-year product-revenue guide raised from 31% to 36%. Our preview had CoCo still very strong and called 35% growth, a 4-point beat versus guidance; the print confirmed the CoCo-to-flywheel read, with CoCo accounts above 9,100 and CoWork at 5,800. Bloom — the AIDC demand debate is over; delivery execution is the rerating variable. Production slots look booked through 2028, we model about 2.7GW of YE27 manufacturing capacity and 2.2GW of 2027 deliveries against 2.0GW consensus, and forward EV/EBITDA has already reset from about 85x to 42x after the July shorts. Enterprise AI Vol.2 — spend is still growing, but the increment is in production workflows and ROI is gated by hours saved. A second set of seven enterprises independently corroborated Vol.1: seats are maturing, APIs and production workflows take the increment, and scattered 5-10% time savings do not cut cost until effort on a class of work falls by about 30%. Premium Report Snapshot Below is a snapshot of what Premium subscribers received this week beyond the Substack feed. Review | CRDO FY27Q1: Record Quarterly Revenue, Q2 Guide Above Street; Optics Ramp 2H Review | PANW FY26Q4: Organic Growth Modest Re-Accel, but vs Raised Buy-Side Bar Not a Clean Beat Deep | Delta Electronics ( 2H26 Re-Acceleration; VPD Overlooked Weekly Expert Interviews Summary A snapshot of the expert interviews we conducted during the past week is below; full transcripts and takeaways are available on the FUNDA platform. MongoDB — AI Production Scaling and Agentic Usage Growth (MDB, SNOW, GOOGL) Marvell — DSP Competitiveness and Optical-Engine Scale Bottlenecks (MRVL, AVGO, NVDA, SMTC) NVIDIA — Co-Packaged Optics Ramp and Supply Bottlenecks (NVDA, LITE, TSM) AWS — Track-Optimized Networking and Active Cables (AMZN, CRDO, NVDA) AI Data Centers — Gas Turbine Supply Constraints and Service Economics Palo Alto — Platform Consolidation and Growth Acceleration (PANW, CYBR) Zurich Insurance — Enterprise AI Spend and Adoption Economics (MSFT, GOOGL) Top Logistic Firm — Governance-Driven AI Spend Expansion (MSFT) Detailed Report

The global helium supply chain is tightening: China's helium imports from Qatar have collapsed to near zero, from a peak of ~65 million cubic feet in late-2025, the lowest on record. Imports from Russia have declined -50 million cubic feet over the last 2 quarters, to ~38.5 million cubic feet, the lowest since Q3 2025. The drop comes as the Iran War disrupts exports from Qatar, which supplied ~33% of global helium before the conflict, As a result, spot helium prices for immediate delivery have roughly DOUBLED over the last 4 months. Meanwhile, China has introduced new export controls on helium, despite not being a major producer itself, as the country relies heavily on imports to supply critical industries, including semiconductor manufacturing and medical equipment. China has also been an important transit route for Russian helium into Europe since direct EU imports from Russia were restricted. Helium supply is being squeezed from multiple directions.

tony fernandes is one of my favorite entrepreneurs that no one talks about the amount of shit this guy has survived / attempted over the last 25 years is ridiculous > spent 14 years in the music industry & had zero airline experience > mortgaged his house + put in his own savings to take over a failing airline for $0.25 alongside $11m in debt (got 2 airplanes to start with) > three days after the deal went through, 9/11 happened > turned it profitable within roughly a year > then survived SARS, bird flu, the 2004 tsunami, record oil prices & the global financial crisis > in 2014 one of their planes crashed, killing all 162 people onboard > then covid grounded basically the entire airline and pushed the company into financial distress > instead of just waiting for travel to return, they tried turning airasia into a super app: food delivery, ride hailing, parcels, fintech, hotels, flights etc > that eventually became MOVE - which today has 16m+ monthly users and did $1.3b in gross bookings in a single quarter > spent almost 6 years restructuring the entire company after covid > completed the restructuring in 2026, separated the airline from Capital A & finally exited its financial distress status > then immediately went back on offense and ordered 150 airbus A220s, the largest A220 order ever, with options for another 150 > they even tried to cancel my boi for posting a shirtless image of him getting massaged in the office every time i feel down, people like tony serve as a reminder that this journey is supposed to be freaking hard

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. $DELL DELL delivered another huge beat and raise, reporting record quarterly revenue of $47.0B versus $44.9B expected, up 58% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $7.04 versus $4.91 expected, up 203% YoY from $2.32. AI server revenue reached $16.4B, roughly doubling YoY, while Dell booked a massive $60.9B of AI server orders during the quarter. AI backlog surged to a record $95B, up from $51.3B last quarter, one of the biggest numbers in the report. Infrastructure also remained strong, with traditional servers and networking revenue up 122% YoY to $10.5B and storage revenue up 26% to $4.9B. Dell raised its FY27 revenue outlook sharply to roughly $192B, compared with its prior $165B–$169B range. If Dell's earnings are any insight into the AI trade, demand continues to be scaling rapidly. 2. Elon Musk’s G20 address today focused on one core idea: AI growth is now being constrained by power, not just chips. He said the world already faces an AI power crisis, citing a potential 15 GW shortfall by 2027, with AI chip production growing 40%–50% annually while power outside China grows only 10%–20%. Musk argued this creates a major opportunity for countries that can build new electricity capacity, host AI data centers, and monetize that infrastructure. He also said digital AI alone could lift the global economy by 20%–30%, or roughly $20T–$30T per year, with AI potentially becoming “Stockfish-level” at software and engineering within 12–18 months. On robotics, he said physical AI $TSLA $SPCX will take longer but could ultimately drive the economy up by 10x or more, especially once humanoid robots begin making more robots. 3. Two oil supertankers were reportedly hit by unknown projectiles while exiting the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, according to maritime security firm Marisks. The U.S. embassy in Jerusalem also warned Americans in the Middle East to exercise heightened vigilance amid the risk of further regional escalation. The 10-year treasury passed 4.8%, reaching the highs from January 2025 and $WTI crude oil surpassed $90/barrel for the first time since July 23rd. 4. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Strait of Hormuz will be “bypassed” within 2 years, arguing that oil will increasingly move through land pipelines instead of the Strait. He said that in two years, Hormuz will be like a “worthless piece of water,” while also noting the U.S. has held private discussions with China on Iran. On sanctions, Bessent said the Treasury is looking at airline leasing companies and that new bank sanctions on Iran are likely coming this week and next. 5. Palantir $PLTR won a new U.S. Army TITAN production contract, with the Army awarding Palantir a prime agreement to produce and deliver 8 new TITAN ground station systems: 4 Advanced and 4 Basic. TITAN is the Army’s next-generation AI/ML-powered deep-sensing platform, combining data from space, high-altitude, aerial, and terrestrial sensors to generate targeting intelligence for mission command and long-range precision fires. Palantir will serve as the prime contractor, overseeing manufacturing, delivery, and the software powering TITAN, alongside partners including Anduril, L3Harris, Sierra Nevada, Strategic Technology Consulting, and World Wide Technology. Palantir USG President and CTO Akash Jain said, “TITAN was shaped by the Soldiers who used it, in the conditions they used it in, against the standard they set. That is the only way a system like this earns its place in the field.” 6. Meta $META is exploring whether its AI glasses can be classified as an assistive device, a move that could potentially allow Medicare and Medicaid coverage for eligible blind and low-vision users. Meta’s wearables VP said the company is “very interested” in pursuing assistive-device classification through the U.S. government. Separately, Meta made Muse Voice Transcribe available through its model API, priced at $3 per 1,000 audio minutes, expanding access to its voice transcription capabilities for developers. 7. Apple claims in a new court filing that OpenAI is actively destroying crucial evidence in a trade secrets case, according to Bloomberg. Apple’s lawyers said an initial forensic review of an Apple-issued MacBook used by a former iPhone engineer found evidence that he and others at OpenAI were aware of his alleged unauthorized access to Apple’s cloud storage providers. The filing also claims he sent instructions for destroying evidence, escalating the dispute between Apple and OpenAI around alleged trade secret misuse. 8. Anthropic launched Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, with Fable 5.1 positioned as its most advanced model yet for coding, knowledge work, long-running agents, and scientific research. The biggest gains came in agentic and coding benchmarks. Anthropic says the larger step-change is in long-running work, with Fable 5.1 better at staying on task for hours, verifying its own work, and finding root causes instead of surface-level fixes. 9. Options activity is cooling, but the mix remains heavily skewed toward calls. The 5-day moving average of call volume has fallen to roughly 6.6M contracts, the lowest since early May, down 1.7M contracts or 20% since mid-July. Put volume has also declined, with the 5-day moving average falling to about 5.3M contracts, the lowest since February. As a result, the equity call-to-put volume ratio has climbed to 1.25x, near the highest level in 5 years and a reading that has been higher only 11% of the time since 2010. 10. Chevron $CVX is reportedly finalizing a deal to significantly expand its operations in Venezuela as part of President Trump’s push to increase Venezuelan oil production, according to Bloomberg. The deal would add 2 giant oil fields in the Orinoco Belt to Chevron’s operations and give the company operating rights to fields holding billions of barrels of oil. It is expected to be the largest of several agreements announced in the coming days as Trump encourages more U.S. investment in Venezuela’s oil industry. The deal is separate from negotiations for the U.S. government to take a direct stake in Venezuelan oil fields. 11. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.5M contracts, $AAPL with 2.1M contracts, $TSLA with 1.8M contracts, $MU with 838K contracts, $AMZN with 665K contracts, $META with 614K contracts, $SPCX with 541K contracts, $INTC with 508K contracts, $PCG with 394K contracts, and $GPRO with 372K contracts. 12. Trump said the U.S. is currently striking Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, calling the strikes “large and powerful” and saying they are retaliation for Iran’s failed attempt to place sea mines in the Strait and for launching 8 missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan, all of which he said were intercepted. He said the Strait currently has no mines after they were “completely removed or detonated,” and warned that if Iran retaliates, it will be hit again at a “much harder and higher level.” Trump also said he “couldn’t care less” about Iran, likes the U.S. position on the Strait, and questioned when the Iranian people will “stand up and fight.” WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

🚨🇷🇺 NATO IN PANIC: RUSSIA’S NEW PANTSIR AIR DEFENSES MIX HYPERSONIC-SPEED INTERCEPTORS WITH ANTI-DRONE MINI-MISSILES Russia has reinforced its air defenses with a new batch of mobile Pantsir-S and fixed-site Pantsir-SMD systems, Rostec announced. The systems passed the required tests and military acceptance before delivery. The batch size was not disclosed. 🔸 Three missile classes: The delivered Pantsirs can fire standard surface-to-air missiles, hypersonic interceptors and compact close-range missiles. Crews can combine all three in one launcher loadout to match the expected threat. Rostec did not identify the hypersonic missile model. 🔸 Mobile protection: Pantsir-S combines missiles and automatic cannons on a self-propelled chassis, allowing it to protect critical sites and reinforce air-defense units against aircraft, missiles and drones. 🔸 Fixed-site defense: Pantsir-SMD is built to defend permanent facilities. Rostec says it has confirmed its stated performance under real operational conditions, including during mass drone attacks. 🔸 Smarter use of ammunition: With a full anti-drone loadout, Pantsir-SMD can carry up to 48 miniature interceptors instead of 12 standard missiles. Mixing full-size and miniature missiles reduces the total below 48, but prepares the same system for both fast, high-value threats and mass raids by low-cost drones. 🔸 Combat record: Rostec says the Pantsir family has already destroyed drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and other airborne weapons. The flexible loadout is the central advantage. A single Pantsir position can prepare for raids in which cheap drones arrive alongside faster missiles instead of relying on one interceptor type for every target. Can a combined NATO missile-and-drone raid overwhelm Russia’s new Pantsirs?

WSJ reports that hyperscalers have 4x as much in off-balance-sheet commitments as in recognized liabilities This is the reason: For leases, recognition occurs when the facility is made available for use. As long as the data center it's in construction, it's not recognized Purchase commitments also remain off the balance sheet until the goods or services are delivered For equipment, the companies record the asset and either pays cash or recognizes a payable upon delivery For energy, cloud capacity, content and other services, the cost is recognized as the service is received rather than as a capital asset

Buried Alive for Eight Years, In the World's Most Surveilled Nation, No One Came. She was a teenager when she vanished. She surfaced more than thirty years later with cigarette burns on her neck, no idea how old she was, and no record that the state had ever known she existed. Wang Xiaohong was abducted from Inner Mongolia and sold to an aging man in the mountains of Sichuan's Daliangshan. For eight and a half years he locked her in a basement and forced her to be his "wife." A single small window sat high on the wall. Her food came through an iron slot, like a prison cell. When she resisted, he pressed lit cigarettes into her arms and throat, scars she still carries. She freed herself. One night her captor came home drunk; she shoved him inside, bolted the door, and ran over one mountain after another. What followed was not rescue but more punishment, odd jobs in Xi'an, a marriage in Henan that turned violent, another escape, then more than a decade pasting shipping labels in a Guangdong workshop, "living one day at a time." She had no ID the entire time. The state that scans every face at every train station never once noticed she was gone. Her family found her in August 2026, not through police, but through a volunteer group and a delivery driver who recognized her from an online video. Her cousin drove more than 2,000 kilometers to bring her home. Beijing pours vast sums into "stability maintenance," by some estimates rivaling its defense budget. Cameras blanket every street; algorithms log every citizen. Yet the trafficking of women and children still flourishes, tearing thousands of families apart. In 2022, the "chained woman" of Xuzhou, shackled by the neck, mother of eight, forced the question this case revives: how does a regime that sees everything miss this? Many Chinese no longer believe it's an accident. A government funded by their taxes, they say, does not protect them, and too often, local officials profit from the very networks they are paid to destroy. She survived. The system that failed her never blinked. ACI — Aric Chen | Insights